*** Official F1 2010 Predictions thread ***

[sunama]

The problem with Massa is that while he is a good No.2 driver, when it comes to taking on the likes of Vettel, Alonso (when he was in a decent Renault or McLaren), Hamilton, etc, he falls short. This is why they brought in Kimi, who in fairness outperformed Massa to win the title in 2007. Ferrari know this. Ferrari also know that over the next few years Hamilton will probably dominate and to prevent this from happening, they need either Alonso (who they have succeeded in getting) or at some stage, if Alonso leaves, they will need to get Vettel or Hamilton. Massa simply doesnt have the weaponry to handle Hamilton, in a similar specced car.

If push came to shove, Ferrari could get rid of Massa and hire another decent No.2 driver (Webber comes to mind). Furthermore, Massa will also know that he has it very nice at Ferrari and leaving Ferrari really would have to be a last resort.

The point I'm making is that while there are plenty of decent No.2 drivers, as of right now, there are probably only 2-3 decent No.1 drivers, meaning that a team has to give preferential treatment to their lead driver, or face losing him to a rival team.

 

[deuse]

I'm talking about the 2010 World Drivers Champion.

Disney land a place where dreams come true..is that way .....>

Snip.

You are forgetting Rossi. Now if ferrari bring him in next year Teflonso would run and hide.
His lap times in the old ferrari was up there with massa also he is italian(which ferrai want) and he is one crazy but great driver.

 

[JRS]

Button above Hamilton. Dude are you being serious?

Yes, I'm being serious. Though according to the e-mail reminder I got from OcUK, you initially asked me if that was a joke. It wasn't a joke either.

The man's entitled to his opinion isn't he?

Until the Dons tell me to shut up, I guess I'm entitled

He is, but JRS is pretty clued up on F1 and making such a prediction (Button ahead of Hamilton) goes against what most clued up people think will happen in 2010.

Honestly, if the car is a front-runner (and it looks like it should be from the get-go) then the two are going to take points off each other. Massa will probably be taking points off Alonso as well, but Ferrari will do a much better job of managing them than McLaren will of managing Hamilton - former world champ - and Button - current world champ. Hamilton will expect no1 status because he's been in the team longer. Button will expect no1 status because his car carries that number. And McLaren will undoubtedly do their level best to **** the whole works up.

Add to that the knowledge that they aren't just fighting each other. Ferrari are back on the pace it seems, RBR don't seem to have slacked off one bit, Mercedes will probably be right up there, and even the Sauber has shown flashes of speed. The test sessions have thrown an equal amount of questions and answers into the ring, so none of us will know the true score until qually in Bahrain. But I think it would be very brave of anyone to completely rule out Button coming out on top in the McLaren arrangements this season.

 

[Type_R]

Yes, I'm being serious. But I think it would be very brave of anyone to completely rule out Button coming out on top in the McLaren arrangements this season.

JRS with all due respect (and I think you are one of the few on here that actually know what they are talking about i.e. not a complete fan boi) - I doubt Button will be able to touch Hamilton in the Macca, LH is more than a match for someone who fluked a WC with a far superior car (and was close to be being beaten by Ferrari's original No 2 RB!!).

I think you will find Alonso, LH, Schumacher and Vettel fighting it out at the front. If Button does manage to get in the fight Im sure all those mentioned above (Alonso, Vettel, Schui and especially LH) will know how to dispose of him quickly.

Just my 2 cents, only time will tell as you say. EDIT - I guess that makes me the brave one completely ruling out Button before 2010 begins! (Whether I end up eating my hat over this only time will tell!).

 

[sunama]

Just my 2 cents, only time will tell as you say. EDIT - I guess that makes me the brave one completely ruling out Button before 2010 begins! (Whether I end up eating my hat over this only time will tell!).

I have practise in this area. In fact, it was the subject of Button which forced me to eat hat. I really laid into him at the end of 2008...then he goes and win the title in 2009.

I just don't see how Hamilton would let Button finish ahead of him. I wouldnt put it past Hamilton to take Button off the track, if necessary.

 

[robbiemc]

Sigh, *still* with the Button bashing. This is typical British attitude - we have a British World Champ and it's just simply not enough, why is this?

I also have to laugh at the constant 'Button fluked/got lucky' comments that are still knocking around. He won it fair and square with a faultless year behind the wheel, not many recent champs can boast that.

And to top it all, I seem to recall that Hamilton had the championship gifted to him two corners from the end of the last race. He didn't have the ability to drive himself to a position that would have secured the WDC!

Anyway, I predict that Button will have a tough, but rewarding year and sincerely hope that JRS prediction is accurate (but then of course it'll be down to 'luck' or some other such nonsense). I'm very interested to see how Buttons calm manner will jar with Hamiltons red-mist, it really is going to be an interesting pair, and I haven't looked forward to a season so much in years. I really really hope the year will be controversy free, as it would be a shame for anything to take focus away from a potentially fantastic years racing.

 

[sunama]

Anyway, I predict that Button will have a tough, but rewarding year and sincerely hope that JRS prediction is accurate (but then of course it'll be down to 'luck' or some other such nonsense).

Last year Button lucked into the title.

If Button can beat Hamilton this year (without assistance from extraordinary events), then it would be difficult to argue that Button isnt the best driver in F1, given that Hamilton and Alonso are probably the top 2.

I just don't see how Button can even come close to Hamilton or Alonso this year. I honestly can't.

 

[Type_R]

Sigh, *still* with the Button bashing. This is typical British attitude - we have a British World Champ and it's just simply not enough, why is this?

Because when Lewis Hamilton drives a car he drives it like a World Champion, a true racer, when Button does it could be anyone under that helmet. Its what sets some racers apart from others, unfortunately Button never had it and probably never will.

**prepares to eat his hat, Sunama style!

 

[PinkFloyd]

Because when Lewis Hamilton drives a car he drives it like a World Champion, a true racer, when Button does it could be anyone under that helmet. Its what sets some racers apart from others, unfortunately Button never had it and probably never will.

**prepares to eat his hat, Sunama style!

Was your TV broken last season?
Granted he isn't as mental as Hamilton at times, but he pulled of some awesome overtaking, did some very good fast lapping when needed and thoroughly deserves to be Champion.

I recommend you go watch the race from Interlagos again. Demonstration of how to make a lot of places when needed without crashing into a wall like Hamilton did last year at Monza

 

[dannyjo22]

Last year Button lucked into the title.

Groan.

Therefore Nigel Mansell lucked into the 1992 championship.

Lewis wins in the best car as well, it's what all modern F1 drivers do. Hamilton will beat button of that I have no doubt but thats because it's hamiltons team. Everyone knows that already.

Anyone that says button never had it, has it or lost it obviously has no clue what so ever what it takes first and foremost to be a F1 champion.

So Vettel wins this year, he lucked into it.
Webber, lucks into it.
Hamilton gets the best car, hero god legend builder of the car
Alonso wins, he rebuilt ferrari, god legend.

If alonso gets the title he will have lucked into the best car far more than Button. Button actually hung around in a crap team despite 99% of the people on here saying he was an idiot who should have found himself in the best team long ago.

He then takes the benefit of winning a title in a great car out of the box and he lucked into it.

 

[robbiemc]

I'm going to need assistance on this whole Button 'luck' thing - really I am.

He had a clearly superior car in the first few races (that's not exactly 'luck' though is it, and not his fault either). He was then able to capitalise on this fabulous car to dominate the first seven races, which shows maturity and a level head.

He only retired once and that's because someone crashed into the back of him, and with the rest of the manufacturers equalising their performance he still managed to win the WDC with a race in hand - which he did by driving a fantastic race and overtaking four times in order (in his words) to 'silence his critics by winning the championship'.

Why oh why is this all seen as luck? How does Hamilton's WDC compare? Honestly, I really need some help in understanding this.

 

[robbiemc]

Because when Lewis Hamilton drives a car he drives it like a World Champion, a true racer, when Button does it could be anyone under that helmet. Its what sets some racers apart from others, unfortunately Button never had it and probably never will.

But he's the current WDC - he has got it.

So in your mind a champion is only worthy if they're unpredictable and let the red-mist take control? (like Hamilton in Italy - crashing on the last lap whilst not racing - or defending - for position).

 

[dannyjo22]

I'm going to need assistance on this whole Button 'luck' thing - really I am.

He had a clearly superior car in the first few races (that's not exactly 'luck' though is it, and not his fault either). He was then able to capitalise on this fabulous car to dominate the first seven races, which shows maturity and a level head.

He only retired once and that's because someone crashed into the back of him, and with the rest of the manufacturers equalising their performance he still managed to win the WDC with a race in hand - which he did by driving a fantastic race and overtaking four times in order (in his words) to 'silence his critics by winning the championship'.

Why oh why is this all seen as luck? How does Hamilton's WDC compare? Honestly, I really need some help in understanding this.

Exactly by the same token Alonso lucked into his first title. Car advantage at the start of the season, that he nursed for the rest of the year against a faster Kimi. Better reliability than the mclaren 'lucked' alonso into his first title.

MS made a pigs ear of his first title
Hill made a pigs ear of his
Jv had a mid season slump
Mika made mistakes and had a cry
Alonso as noted above got 'lucky'
Hamilton blew his first shot and made a meal of the 2nd.

All had troubles in differing ways, all made a meal of the first title, all made mistakes. All won in the best car over a season.

Apparently all Lucky titles.

 

[robbiemc]

Here's my predicitions:

World Drivers Championship - Top 6

1.Alonso
2. Massa
3. Button
4. Vettel
5. Hamilton
6. Schumacher


Constructors Championship - Top 6

1. Ferrari
2. McLaren
3. Red Bull
4. Mercedes
5. Renault
6. Sauber


And for fun...

Driver booby prize (caused the most trouble/crashes/mayhem on track by mistake) - Schumacher

Best new team (which of the new teams will score the best results/points) - Virgin

Best new driver - inexperienced & new drivers only (Hulkenberg/Petrov/Alguersuari/Senna/Lopez/de Grassi/Kobayashi) - Kobayashi

Team to get in the most trouble / cheating / controversy by FIA or the courts - McLaren

 

[sunama]

Therefore Nigel Mansell lucked into the 1992 championship.

1992 Mansell:
9 wins out of 16 races,
5 wins in a row
14 pole positions out of 16 races
108 points vs 56 points (2nd placed driver)
At Silverstone he qualified almost 2s ahead of the next best driver, on a dry track.
At Silverstone, he was overtaken at the first corner and he then proceeded to open up a lead of 10s by the end of the 4th lap.

All of the above are records. Up to 1992, no driver in (modern) F1 had broken that many records in a single season.

If anybody wants to know what domination is, check out 1992's season. Mansell was in blistering form, in a car which was the class of the field.

Now, compare this with Button's season last year - did he even break a single record? Was there even a single race where anybody thought - WOW.

During the first half of the season Button was very good. But had Hamilton or Alonso been alongside him in the BrawnGP, he would've been toast.

Still, all this bickering is boring. What we can say for sure is that in 2010, he is going to be compared directly to Hamilton in an (almost) identical car. JRS thinks Button will beat Hamilton. I think if Button achieves this (without extraordinary events), he will have to be classed as the top driver in F1 (and that includes Alonso). We shall have to wait and see.

 

[Ezee84]

I just don't see how Hamilton would let Button finish ahead of him. I wouldnt put it past Hamilton to take Button off the track, if necessary.

Hamilton doesn't have it in him to punt someone off the track. He is a very fair racer compared to most. If he was going to show he could do something like that, he would have needed to do it at the beginning of his F1 career like Senna etc to make a point of letting the opposition know he isn't to be messed with.

He has already shown he bottles it when faced with close calls like Alonso at Brazil in 2007 when both were in the McLaren. Alonso deliberately put his car alongside Hamiltons on the 1st lap knowing one driver would have to give in or they both crash & it was Hamilton who gave the place up. If that was Senna, Schumacher or Prost for example, they would have crashed to make a point to the other driver not to try it ever again.

My main concern for the McLaren team this year is that both Button & Hamilton will score points off each other if the car is good which could disadvantage them in the Drivers Championship.

 

[JRS]

Exactly by the same token Alonso lucked into his first title. Car advantage at the start of the season, that he nursed for the rest of the year against a faster Kimi.

And ditto for his second title. I do seem to recall Alonso's initial lead getting chopped away (and him getting more and more bitchy) as the '06 season wore on, culminating in him coming out in the press to say that Renault weren't behind him as they knew he was leaving at the end of the year. It took a couple of years of him wrestling recalcitrant Renaults (ooh, alliteration) for him to regain some respect in my eyes, but he's certainly done that.

You make your own luck, especially in this sport. If we say Button was lucky to get the '09 title and it thus means nothing, we can also say that Fangio's title in '56 means nothing due to him having the good fortune to be able to break a car and a team-mate to hand their car over to him (Peter Collins, who still could have taken that title and sadly never got a chance to win one after that). Or Hill's title in '96 means nothing because he had the good fortune to see Villeneuve's wheel fall off. Or Schumacher's '03 title means nothing because he had the good fortune to see McLaren screw up their super-duper new car and have to field a much-modified '02 one, and everyone fell over themselves trying to beat him. Or Senna lucked into the '88 title because despite Prost getting more points only the best 11 results out of 15 races counted. Or Mika lucked into the '99 title because Schumacher broke his leg at Silverstone.

Do I need to continue, or did I make my point yet sunama?

 

[sunama]

Do I need to continue, or did I make my point yet sunama?

I think that after the 2010 season is finished, all debates regarding Button's actual skill level will be put to rest.

I'm confident Hamilton will heavily outscore his team-mate. Clearly by your 2010 prediction, JRS, you feel the opposite will be true. Lets just wait and see how 2010 unfolds.

I only hope that McLaren can compete against the Ferraris. If the 2 teams are closely matched, for the first time in a long time we shall see 4 top drivers in great cars, all battling it out for the leading positions (unlike last season).

2010...great stuff!

 

[JRS]

Now, compare this with Button's season last year - did he even break a single record? Was there even a single race where anybody thought - WOW.

As far as races that made you go "wow" - Button had his fair share of moments last year. His overtakes in Brazil were almost Mansell-esque at times, Monaco qually was just sublime, his hounding of Webber at Abu Dhabi....

Thinking of records for a second. Of the current drivers on the grid, only one has any Grand Chelem results to his name (pole, lead entire race, fastest lap). That would be one M. Schumacher. Neither Alonso, Hamilton or Button managed such a feat yet. As far as the bare hat-trick (pole, fastest lap, win) goes, it's still only Schumacher out of the current drivers who makes the top-10. Button has one of those for Malaysia '09, Hamilton has two (Japan '07 and China '08), Massa has four so far, pretty sure Alonso has three (Britain '06, Monaco and Italy '07). Schumacher has....well.....rather more. 22 I think?

Oh, and the only man with more Grand Chelem races than Schumacher? Jimmy Clark. They just don't make 'em like they used to, I guess

 

[Duke]

Thread is heating up nicely

*rubs hands*