Premium Bonds - If you post to say how much you've won, please also say how much you have invested.

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

No one can prove if it can or can't.
At no time I said it was correct, or incorrect. Again people coming out with assumptions. All I said was I am changing the group range that is all.

Then someone came out with a figure which was lol.
Funny some put words into someone's mouths.
It seems to happen a lot here.

Its literally the job of the NAO to check these things meet criteria the public are told they will.

The only person here who is struggling to make a coherent point is you. Post after post after post.
Thats probably harsh since its clear English isn't your primary language.

 

[FNG]

When I won last month I was lying on my bed when I checked. This month I won considerably less and was in my office. I am now spending more time in bed so I win more.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

When I won last month I was lying on my bed when I checked. This month I won considerably less and was in my office. I am now spending more time in bed so I win more.

Hmm are you sure you were in bed at the right time?
You need to be in bed when the draw happens surely?

 

[Kenai]

When I won last month I was lying on my bed when I checked. This month I won considerably less and was in my office. I am now spending more time in bed so I win more.

Just be aware it only applies to beds bought after 2010.

 

[Mrwong]

Its literally the job of the NAO to check these things meet criteria the public are told they will.

The only person here who is struggling to make a coherent point is you. Post after post after post.
Thats probably harsh since its clear English isn't your primary language.

Lol you still are coming out with assumptions and you are not reading.

You are still going on and on.

One other point why does it always comedown to personal attacks, it is always the same ending, now that is a common trend .

 

[Tax Evader]

I've recently had a dabble with £10k. April will be my first draw and I'm taking onboard all the tips for winning regarding poo and bed times. Probably best not to combine the two

 

[FNG]

You'll be fine. Your numbers are really recent so will be really quick (or something) so you have a much higher probability of winning (although also the same chance).

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Lol you still are coming out with assumptions and you are not reading.

You are still going on and on.

One other point why does it always comedown to personal attacks, it is always the same ending, now that is a common trend .

The problem is your cryptic nonsense isn't easy to decode.
Assumptions have to be made when the original post is not in readily understandable form.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I must say this person must consider themselves darn lucky
(Yeah I went and looked at the bond profile for the winners of £1m and £100k in March draw)
First draw that £20k set would have eligable in and they picked up £100k

Conclusion was you want to go back to about 2016

Prize value	Winning Bond	Holding	Area	Bond Value	Purchased
£100,000	525XD037079	£40,800	Outer London	£20,000	Jan-23

 

[Mrwong]

The problem is your cryptic nonsense isn't easy to decode.
Assumptions have to be made when the original post is not in readily understandable form.

There is a different, Probably event and actual event, ie probability and frequency. I can't say any more, to that. First one is think will happen and the other has happened.

My original post, I am changing my numbers to fit in with a different group.

I have included this. I am more confident, because of the frequency, maybe you understand it this way.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

There is a different, Probably event and actual event, ie probability and frequency. I can't say any more, to that. First one is think will happen and the other has happened.

My original post, I am changing my numbers to fit in with a different group.

I have included this. I am more confident, because of the frequency, maybe you understand it this way.

Well sort of as its still not in normal English.

If I get your gist you are selling your bonds, buying new bonds as you think this new group (ie more recent bonds) since they are more heavily weighted in the total population have a higher win frequency as a group.
No?

If so your still falling for the trap of that every bond does not somehow have exactly equal chance of winning as any other bond.

 

[200sols]

There is a different, Probably event and actual event, ie probability and frequency. I can't say any more, to that. First one is think will happen and the other has happened.

My original post, I am changing my numbers to fit in with a different group.

I have included this. I am more confident, because of the frequency, maybe you understand it this way.

More bonds have been issued in recent years so what you are seeing is a symptom of this, newer bonds do not have a higher chance of winning. Frequency or actual or whatever.

 

[Mrwong]

More bonds have been issued in recent years so what you are seeing is a symptom of this, newer bonds do not have a higher chance of winning. Frequency or actual or whatever.

I am going by frequency wins v number of bonds, the frequency of winners has be slightly higher even taking into account the difference bond purchases within their respective time groups.


What evidence do you have "If so your still falling for the trap of that every bond does not somehow have exactly equal chance of winning as any other bond." you cant say with accuracy can you, you can only predict that case but the outcome can be different.


A dice rolled 6 times has 1/6 chance of each number appearing, however roll a dice 6 times, and reality is that 1 number will appear more than once and 1 number will not. Now roll the dice for 2 sets of 6, one or two numbers will have higher count but all the numbers have the same chance.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I am going by frequency wins v number of bonds, the frequency of winners has be slightly higher even taking into account the difference bond purchases within their respective time groups.


What evidence do you have "If so your still falling for the trap of that every bond does not somehow have exactly equal chance of winning as any other bond." you cant say with accuracy can you, you can only predict that case but the outcome can be different.


A dice rolled 6 times has 1/6 chance of each number appearing, however roll a dice 6 times, and reality is that 1 number will appear more than once and 1 number will not. Now roll the dice for 2 sets of 6, one or two numbers will have higher count but all the numbers have the same chance.

Source needed. Link us the stats analysis.

NSI and the NAO tell us every bond has an equal chance of winning as they verify that the numbers are chosen at random.

No your dice example is completely wrong.
With a small sample set there is a high chance of an adverse distribution, as the same size increases it should get ever closer to the normal distribution.

But your basically confirming you think you have a higher chance to win with newer bonds, your just not writing it your skirting around the issue.

 

[Mrwong]

Source needed. Link us the stats analysis.

NSI and the NAO tell us every bond has an equal chance of winning as they verify that the numbers are chosen at random.

No your dice example is completely wrong.
With a small sample set there is a high chance of an adverse distribution, as the same size increases it should get ever closer to the normal distribution.

But your basically confirming you think you have a higher chance to win with newer bonds, your just not writing it your skirting around the issue.

Roll a dice with 2 sets of 6. And see if the actual outcome match's the probable outcome. I can place a bet with 99.9% confidence that it does not.

As I said confidence is based on frequency = actual, probability = theory. I never said the chance has changed.

Not to complicate matters.

 

[norm]

Come on then post your wins!

Nothing for me on a 50k holding. Hoping for better luck next month.

Scratch that, I checked now and it shows a £25 win for March, their systems must not update until business hours on the day they release the results.

 

[bazzabear]

I have a 6 sided die.

Numbers in the range 1-4 have a 4/6 chance of coming up.
Numbers in the range 5-6 only have a 2/6 chance of coming up.

So that means I should definitely bet on 4 rather than 5, because it's in a group which is more likely to come up, right?

No. Not right. Wong.

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

Roll a dice with 2 sets of 6. And see if the actual outcome match's the probable outcome. I can place a bet with 99.9% confidence that it does not.

Not to complicate matters.

Again you would be wong wrong wong

Edit just to be clear. Your close but I don't think you could explain why.
The chances of a 123456 (in any order) from rolling 6 dice is 1.54% chance
So to do that on two sets is actually 0.02%

But this is irrelevant anyway for the point your making, its more slight of hand or mis interpretation of the real numbers.

Yet again you make a statement and you don't back it up, you move to something else. Its repeated post after post after post after post.
Your just trolling the thread. Over and over and over.

 

[Diddums]

Roll a dice with 2 sets of 6. And see if the actual outcome match's the probable outcome. I can place a bet with 99.9% confidence that it does not.

As I said confidence is based on frequency = actual, probability = theory. I never said the chance has changed.

Not to complicate matters.

Complicate matters?

I think you'd struggle with 1+1 tbh.

 

[Mrwong]

Again you would be wong wrong wong

You can roll the dice 12 times and get two of each numbers from 1 to 6 ? lol I can predict with 99.9 confidence that you cant.