Ok so the logic is there but here is where I (don't disagree but think things will pan out differently) see it going...
- Pile on the RT and other new effects, but are enough people going to buy into that. By your own observation it needs a metric asston of processing power to make substantial gains, ergo generational improvements are merely scratching the surface. (given how much RT has added to improving visuals with what is still very limited effects, if they keep adding more and more as hardware improves, the visual differences are only going to increase too thus making people want to buy the better hardware, of course, there will always be people who don't care for visuals and probably run low @ 1080P but at least they will have the choice to reduce/turn off these settings and stick with older hardware as has always been the case)
- How many game developers are going to push those limits, to an audience that need to spend 1k+ on GPU hardware (that's why we have options/sliders. I suspect we are going to start to see developers putting less effort in rasterization over time given how much effort and time it requires to get "good" results when they can get superior results far far far quicker, the only thing really holding them back from fully going in right now is consoles but with fsr and the refresh consoles on the way, this could change the scene quite dramatically imo)
- I don't know about anyone else but for me and people I know we play legacy titles FAR more than the cutting edge ones (opposite for me, I've played more RT titles over rasterization in the last 1-2 years)
- Streamers and content creators who promote games through their content just by playing by and large are spreading out regarding their hardware... Its surprising to see just how many full-time content creators simply don't use RDNA2 or Ampere (depends on the streamers, the ones doing very well, will all be running ampere. I very rarely see streamers with amd gpus tbh, not surprising though when nvidia are far better here)
So yes I see the argument but IMHO quality features are not going to offset the cliff edge of 'why do I need to upgrade - it runs fines' and I think next gen brings that cliff edge in sight for the first time in a long long time