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RDNA 3 rumours Q3/4 2022

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Then if they reveal the 7800xt they could position that at the $899 to come in at the same price as 4080 12GB but with performance that may be above the 4080 16GB
While it looks good against Nvidias unrealistic 4080 pricing when you compare it to a $650 6800XT you're looking at a 40% price increase so if it only offers 40% more performance then its still a flop. last gen a 3080 offered 65% more performance than a 2080 at the same price, now I dont expect that kind of performance increase or prices to stay the same as last gen but I think AMD need a 40%+ over a 6800XT while only costing around 20% more to be successful.
 
Depends how these things are calculated I suppose.

For example Nvidia claimed +100% increase in perf/watt for RTX4000 but based on reviews it looks more like 60-70% unless you power limit the GPU to 200w cause at 200w it shows up as 100% faster

The way AMD did it for Vega 64 -> Navi 10 and for Navi 10 to Navi 21 was to take the current top card and compare it to their new top card at their respective TBPs, measure the power draw and give you the calculation that way.

I don't think that will change this time. Obviously using TBP rather than actual power draw makes it not perfect but most AMD cards pull their TBP +/- a little when at max load so it is good enough to get a rough estimate.

Ultimately it is just guess work until the announcement in November but I see no reason to doubt AMD given they have consistently delivered on their claims since Zen 1 and RDNA. They have a track record for that at the moment.

There is also the outside chance their >50% perf/watt claim was as sandbaggy as their >5.0Ghz and >15% single thread performance claims for Zen 4 but for the purposes of guessing I just use what they have said.
 
While it looks good against Nvidias unrealistic 4080 pricing when you compare it to a $650 6800XT you're looking at a 40% price increase so if it only offers 40% more performance then its still a flop. last gen a 3080 offered 65% more performance than a 2080 at the same price, now I dont expect that kind of performance increase or prices to stay the same as last gen but I think AMD need a 40%+ over a 6800XT while only costing around 20% more to be successful.

Pretty sure 7800XT will be N32 which has a lower BOM than the 4080 12GB and a lower BOM than Navi 21 so in theory AMD could price around $650-700 and improve their margin while offering a very nice perf/$ uplift.

Same goes for N33 in the 7600XT. Smaller die than N23 and a cheaper node than N23 in a card that could sell for $400 and be around 6800XT performance (some rumours suggest 6900XT in 1080p/1440p). That would be an aggressive perf/$ pricing but would still be an increased margin vs N23 so AMD can win a bit and gamers can win a bit. The only thing that might stop AMD from doing this is if expected demand massively outstrips supply in which case they will price higher to control demand.
 
last gen a 3080 offered 65% more performance than a 2080 at the same price
Well another way to look at that is that the 2080 offered bugger all performance improvement over the 1080 Ti that preceded it, blurry DLSS1 and RT aside, and that bump doesn't look so good over 2 gens.

But still, surely AMD can offer better value than the 4080 16GB and "4080" 12GB? Or will they follow Nvidia's lead to bump their ASP too?
 
Well another way to look at that is that the 2080 offered bugger all performance improvement over the 1080 Ti that preceded it, blurry DLSS1 and RT aside, and that bump doesn't look so good over 2 gens.

But still, surely AMD can offer better value than the 4080 16GB and "4080" 12GB? Or will they follow Nvidia's lead to bump their ASP too?
Yeah the 2080 was a poor showing from nvidia and the 4080 12gb looks like it'll be ADAs 2080 but with a 50% price hike on top.
 
I see talk that AMD won't match the 4090 but in the scheme of things it doesn't matter. Very few people will ever own a 4090. They just need great price to performance and sell as many as they can.

4090 is a halo product, it's 4080 that matters and that isn't all that much faster than 3090 (in fact likely slower than 3090) and 4080 is priced at £1200. AMD should match and surpass 4080 with RNDA3. As long as they're smart with their pricing they have an excellent chance of taking a lot of market share in the high margin £650+ market.

The performance gap between 4080 and 4090 is huge (unlike 3080 and 3090), so as long as AMD sits somewhere in the middle and prices the cards below £1000, they have a winner.
 
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I see talk that AMD won't match the 4090 but in the scheme of things it doesn't matter. Very few people will ever own a 4090. They just need great price to performance and sell as many as they can.
So AMD finally decided to leak information and what we get is that they can't match the 4090. Seems kind of suspicious but okay. A day later Nvidia does the unprecedented and unlaunches the 4060ti.

So at first it would seem really bad for AMD, maybe Nvidia decided the don't need that card to compete with AMD. However, the only way AMD couldn't compete with the 4080 16GB 4070 is if they've had a performance regression, which seems highly unlikely.
So the next question becomes why did Nvidia decide that the egg on their face from unlaunching the 4060ti was best option for the business. Are they concerned that they will need to reprice the 4070 before launch and don't want the 4060ti taking sales from the 3000 series when prices are lowered?
 
So AMD finally decided to leak information and what we get is that they can't match the 4090. Seems kind of suspicious but okay. A day later Nvidia does the unprecedented and unlaunches the 4060ti.

So at first it would seem really bad for AMD, maybe Nvidia decided the don't need that card to compete with AMD. However, the only way AMD couldn't compete with the 4080 16GB 4070 is if they've had a performance regression, which seems highly unlikely.
So the next question becomes why did Nvidia decide that the egg on their face from unlaunching the 4060ti was best option for the business. Are they concerned that they will need to reprice the 4070 before launch and don't want the 4060ti taking sales from the 3000 series when prices are lowered?

Nvidia thought enough people were stupid and couldn't see the tiny sub 300MM2 die they were using for the "RTX4070 12GB" was barely bigger than the one used in the RTX3060. Or the 192 bit memory bus was tiny for an 80 series card and was similar to an RTX3060.

They also tried to price it at $900 which was more than the RTX3060,RTX3060TI or RTX3070. Remember,there was a price hike with the RTX2000 series which pushed the 70 series dGPUs well over $400 too. If they had even put this out as an RTX4070 12GB at $500(which would mean a further price hike for the 70 series again), people might put up with it. But OFC,Nvidia got greedy and went full retard on pricing despite missing revenues by $1.4 billion. Their answer was because they wanted to sell the RTX3000 series without probably discounting them(IIRC). But the RTX3060,RTX3070TI,RTX3080TI,etc were all overpriced too,so its no wonder they missed revenue forcasts.

Perhaps,they need to discount the RTX3000 series even more.
 
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I think AMD need a 40%+ over a 6800XT while only costing around 20% more to be successful.
Every increase of price is a lost battle for the end user. Especially one in double digits.

AMD started way back with its 7970 the rise in prices. 61% increase for 30% more performance

 
Every increase of price is a lost battle for the end user. Especially one in double digits.

AMD started way back with its 7970 the rise in prices. 61% increase for 30% more performance

The 7970 was a true beast though, it still performs better than APUs, until perhaps the 7700G will manage to beat it.
 
I see talk that AMD won't match the 4090 but in the scheme of things it doesn't matter. Very few people will ever own a 4090. They just need great price to performance and sell as many as they can.
That's what I've been saying. Most people have a ceiling for how much dough they're willing to toss at a video game toy. Mine is around £750, not a red cent more. It seems like there will be virtually no performance gain from Nvidia over my 3090 for that price point.

If AMD comes with something that a) is around 40% faster in rendering and even matches Ampere's RT performance, b) is priced at or below what the 6-series was at, I'm sold. This would somewhat restore the natural order of things and move cards like hot cakes.
 
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The 7970 was a true beast though, it still performs better than APUs, until perhaps the 7700G will manage to beat it.
A beast that was beaten by the mid range card of the competition - the same mid range card that was sold as high end at the time, all thanks to that "beast".:)
 
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