Red Sea / Houthi rebels situation

clv101 said:
The Saudis, with UK support, have been bombing the Houthis for years with little apparent impact. Wonder what will change now?

Fundamentally, it's impossible for the Red Sea / Gulf of Aden / Gulf of Oman to be 'safe' if the locals don't want it to be. Iran is more than capable of completely blocking Persian Gulf, and via proxies, likely Red Sea too.
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The Saudis announced a truce with the Houthis in April 2022. It officially ended six months later, but it has been pretty quiet since then.

A month or so ago, the Saudis and Houthis were negotiating a peace deal, but that's probably dead now.

Also, in 2021 the US removed the Houthis from their list of terrorist orhanisations. I'm assuming they'll be back on it now, which means Saudi negotiations (cash) won't be possible, as it would put Saudi at risk of US sanctions.
 
Hotwired said:
It's been a whole five minutes since the last time the notorious western duo poured military forces into the middle east...
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Why in the name of god are we in this? With the US? To protect trade with... China which is using its considerable navy to blockade and intimidate countries surrounding the south china seas and western pacific trying to claim all of it as its own territorial waters it should be the one protecting its own trade christ knows why we're paying out to defend China's enormous trade disparity in global shipping.
 
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If this is restricted to Yemen only, I can’t see anything more serious happening unless Iran get directly involved? Unlikely…
 
Hotwired said:
It's been a whole five minutes since the last time the notorious western duo poured military forces into the middle east...
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Neither the US or UK are going to pour military forces into the Middle East, they will do airstrikes on targets to hopefully degrade capabilities that is causing economics issues within western countries... neither the US or UK public will want boots on the ground again in the middle east... I doubt it that it will happen a lot.

Stelly
 
Stumble Bum said:
Everyone else has their head buried in the sand. It's always easy to do nothing.
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Yeh so noble.

Iraq - Wrong
Afghanistan - Wrong
Libya - Wrong (what a mess)
Syria - Wrong, tried to do it again and public were p'd off and denied Cameron from air strikes. White helmet false flag chemical attacks - Yet our superb intelligence thought it was Assad.
 
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sityeuropa said:
Yeh so noble.

Iraq - Wrong
Afghanistan - Wrong
Libya - Wrong (what a mess)
Syria - Wrong, tried to do it again and public were p'd off and denied Cameron from air strikes. White helmet false flag chemical attacks - Yet our superb intelligence thought it was Assad.
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So you want these terrorists to keep attacking peaceful shipping routes? lol wut?
 
Blackjack Davy said:
Why in the name of god are we in this? With the US? To protect trade with... China which is using its considerable navy to blockade and intimidate countries surrounding the south china seas and western pacific trying to claim all of it as its own territorial waters it should be the one protecting its own trade christ knows why we're paying out to defend China's enormous trade disparity in global shipping.
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Yes, no matter what people think trade and manufacturing with China is a massive part of all Western Economies.... there is massive reliance on goods from China, and China is reliant on trade with the west for its continued growth into what will be probably the biggest super power in the world within 5-10 years I think... businesses within the UK have seen prices rise about 250% since all this has kicked off... so the west had to do something to avoid even more inflation and worsen the cost of living issues that are massively effecting peoples lives I guess?
 
The way I see this happening, I doubt this will amount to much more than sustained targeted air strikes, possibly with minimal SF/HUMINT on the ground working intelligence to build up target lists. I dont see this becoming another full on boots on ground deal.
Wants to stay reasonably chill though, I'm off out to that region in coming weeks for a short trip with work. If they can kindly chill the **** out till I get back, that'd be grand!
 
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