Red Sea / Houthi rebels situation

Stu999 said:
Are Iran in the FA stage of FAFO?
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Very much seems like it! They seem quite happy at the moment unsettling the balance of power what little peace there is in the region. I wonder what has been the motivating factor in this recent uptick in stupidity.

[CT hat] I dont feel that Israel/hamas or the Houthi rebels as being the main influence here. I think its possible someone else from the North may be pulling strings here in an attempt to pull focus from their own struggling conflict?[/CT hat]
 
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Mr Jack said:
It isn't Iran attacking shipping.

As for Ansar Allah, I don't see much reason to believe that "we" (the collective West) have any real ability to stop them attacking shipping. We can protect some number of ships, we can mildly reduce their capabilities by dropping a bunch of bombs and missiles on them, but we can't actually stop the attacks - not with any approach that is realistically viable.
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Who's building the missiles?
 
Mr Jack said:
Yet more bombing and destruction for the people of Yemen.
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I think that's down to threatening shipping - that shipping route is a major artery for east west trade. It impacts China too - quite surprised China hasn't had a word internally in BRICS.
 
Tefal said:
Who's building the missiles?
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I refer the Gentleman to the answer I gave a moment ago

NickK said:
I think that's down to threatening shipping - that shipping route is a major artery for east west trade.
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Sure, Ansar Allah have brought this on the Yemeni people. It doesn't make it less sad. Doubly so, since I don't believe further US military action is actually going to help.

It impacts China too - quite surprised China hasn't had a word internally in BRICS.
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This is a good point, I do wonder why China aren't getting involved. Some 60% of their trade with the EU goes through the Suez canal, you'd have thought that was enough incentive to act. Maybe they realise that an ineffective bombing run against Ansar Allah is going to do nothing for their military reputation.
 
Mr Jack said:
This is a good point, I do wonder why China aren't getting involved. Some 60% of their trade with the EU goes through the Suez canal, you'd have thought that was enough incentive to act. Maybe they realise that an ineffective bombing run against Ansar Allah is going to do nothing for their military reputation.
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Possibly the thinking goes:
1. China -> Iran -> Yemen means china controls shipping trade lane of India, and any Asian country.
2. China won't say or do anything to US/UK/EU defence because military action pushes local countries towards China in defence - they'll buy Iranian weapons for the low prices but Chinese weapons of they can afford it now USA is less likely to allow modern weapons to be sold (f16 maybe)..
3. Yemen and other countries aren't really boundaries - they're tribal in their allegencies, so they will operate until nullified and other will step up. The impact is likely to be small.

I suspect that US/UK etc are concerned that missiles are one thing - Iran/Russia will sell mines and the Yemeni Houthi will make the step of mining international shipping lanes - I think China would prevent this due to the long term economic impact. It's also not clear what would happen if those mines ended up drifting out of that zone - local tensions would also impact. However they don't care because they're not thinking economy but ideology.
 
NickK said:
I suspect that US/UK etc are concerned that missiles are one thing - Iran/Russia will sell mines and the Yemeni Houthi will make the step of mining international shipping lanes
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Maybe this is my ignorance showing, but wouldn't Ansar Allah need minelaying ships to deploy mines? As far as I know, they don't have any -- or any real navy to speak of at all. And, even if they did, minelayers would surely be a soft target for Western forces wishing to prevent their actions.
 
Mr Jack said:
Maybe this is my ignorance showing, but wouldn't Ansar Allah need minelaying ships to deploy mines? As far as I know, they don't have any -- or any real navy to speak of at all. And, even if they did, minelayers would surely be a soft target for Western forces wishing to prevent their actions.
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That depends.. a single mine off the back of a makeshift carrier and the fear will last a while. Although thinking about it, it would also deny shipping for allies.. and Russian mines are more likely to hit Houthi or Iranian shipping if their missiles are anything to go by.
 
Stumble Bum said:
What's your proposed solution?
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Isn't this just a version of the "We must do something! This is something! We must do this!" line of reasoning that leads to so many bad decisions? Just because we don't have a good idea for a solution doesn't make doing any particular "something" the right choice.
 
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Mr Jack said:
Isn't this just a version of the "We must do something! This is something! We must do this!" line of reasoning that leads to so many bad decisions? Just because we don't have a good idea for a better solution doesn't make doing any particular "something" the right choice.
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No it's not really, the alternative is to sit there and do nothing and make no decisions. If houthi have chosen to attack US Ships and threaten international shipping through an extremely important trade route then no, this is not a situation of, 'oh but we must do something'.

It's always easy to criticise something that you might not want to happen, but unless there's a better solution to the problem then that line of commentary is not very helpful. I'm genuinely interested in if there was a better solution and what that might look like?
 
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