You are Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my £10....
Red Sea / Houthi rebels situation
- Thread starter Stu999
- Start date
You are Jeremy Corbyn and I claim my £10....
Caporegime
Yes, because only Jeremy Corbyn could think that ineffectively bombing Yemen might not be the best idea
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Are you sure - that would simply result in India and Iran making a decision to snatch land whilst they can. A game of your prophet is less than my prophet and the nukes (Iran, India and Pakistan have some form of nuclear capability - that includes dirty) will be waved in a religious war as they've seen the effect nukes have had from stopping NATO (according to Putin).
Iran is a danger to most of the Middle East.. better for Iran to "accidentally" some of the local countries and it will kick off locally with traditional weapons (because saving face is cheaper than calming back land).
India will leave Pakistan and Iran to fight it out.. Islamic countries from India's POV, can reduce their threat by fighting each other. However India will not like BRICS allowing Iran free rein to rampage.. although Kashmir skirmishes will continue irrespectively..
I think the Middle East is more concerned with overspill from the Palestinian-Israeli war.
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Does it really though? I would think Most of the volume is in one direction which is from Asia to here.
If true, it’s not China or the Chinese people that will pay higher prices for shipping. It’s the end consumer a.k.a the European population who will suffer. It’s also going to affect inflation for our economy not the Chinese.
True - will the west pay for costlier shipping? I agree it also has a negative effect on the western economies.
Those going around then have the destabilising African content to cope with.
Caporegime
Given the choice between losing a sizeable chunk of your exports or paying a bit higher prices and having a bit less access to cheap tat; I'm pretty sure most economists are not going to choose the hit to exports.
Soldato
Indeed it does, whoever thought parking 2 ships like that was a bit dim tbh, plus, do these multimillion pound vessels not have reverse sensors?
Do you mean imports?
Because the way it is worded, it sounds like you think the chinese will pay the increase price for shipping.
Caporegime
No, I mean exports. Chinese exports will be hit by the disruption to shipping. That disruption to exports is a much more serious problem than a loss of imports is for Europe.
The factories in China, assuming they arrange the shipping, will just pass the cost on to their business customer. Do you think shops are going to let their shelves run dry, because they refuse to pay an extra for shipping? They will pay the extra and pass it on to their customers(which is us the public).
The only thing you can do is not buy it. But if you need it, your going to have to pony up.
When customers don't see goods on the shelves they won't go home and wait for shipping to go back to normal. They will go to the next shop and pay the higher price.
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Soldato
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Caporegime
Or they go to a different supplier. China doesn't have a reputation for quality - no-one boasts about being "made in China" - nor does it have a reputation for good governance. People buy from China because it is cheap; anything that erodes that cost advantage will shift supply from Chinese suppliers to other suppliers.
Very few things are perfectly non-fungible, and a great many of the things China supplies to the West are very fungible indeed. Higher prices will mean lower sales for China.
Caporegime
Pound shop rebranding to pound fifty shop 2024.
Supply chains cannot be upended and moved quickly.
Getting quotes from a supplier can take up to 6 weeks. Then there is tooling manufacturing, depending on complexity is anywhere from a few weeks to 6 months. Or you can ship your tool from your old supplier if you own it. After all that you still need to test and validate the product they are delivering and then ramp up production.
It would take a 2-3 months minimum to move suppliers. By the time you’ve finished this situation might be over and we are onto the next global issue. What are you going to do in the mean time?
Side note It is a false belief that the Chinese cannot manufacture items that are of “good” quality.
They will make it to the specifications that you give them. iPhones are made in China and I don’t think anyone in their right mind would say that an iPhone feels like a low quality product. (In a physical sense)
The biggest issue you will face with the Chinese is them secretly changing the production method to save money for themselves while charging you the same which can cause issue with the final product. But even that can be controlled.
Edit: Also where is all this spare manufacturing capacity going to come from?
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Soldato
Which is a very good thing.
However the Red Sea sea lanes need protection and require a naval presence and response.
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Caporegime
Realistically, this is going on for a lot longer than 2-3 months.
Sure, but perception matters.
What needs to happen is the USA and SA go full on IRAQ on Houti controlled Yemen. SA deploy troops in the controlled zone to let the main Yemeni government (Tribe) take back control as a puppet of SA.
SA then get a nice buffer to Iran as they love each other....
SA then get a nice buffer to Iran as they love each other....
Soldato
I was thinking what have South Africa got to do with but then it clicked. ..
(What with the ICJ action).