Pretty much, even if Vettel came 1st and Ham 5th, Vettel would only have a 13 point lead, Ham wins two races and regardless of where Vettel came he'd be back in the lead.
In reality the only other track Mercedes haven't been completely dominant on would be Brazil, Suzuka and CotA are major Hamilton tracks where he's just brilliant and both will suit the Merc, sweeping fast corners the Merc is great in. Mexico is an engine track so again favours the Mercs, Yas Marina. Of the 5 races after this I'd say 4 of them favour Merc.
The real issue is both reliability, will either team have engine penalties and where might they have them, can they get back to top 5 when they end up taking them(if they do). Then also Bottas and Kimi, both having so many races miles off the pace and unable to create a buffer to the other team. If Bottas had decent pace you could rely on him to take some 2nd's with Ham in 1st to gain more points but his race pace is often just no where near good enough. Today won't matter but Bottas is what 7/10ths down in qualy and looked to be 1.5 seconds off in race pace yesterday.
If Bottas is fast enough I can see them potentially sacrifice his race to hold up anyone he could if any Ferraris or RBRs pit and come out behind him. Other tracks you couldn't do much to hold them up here could definitely cost them time. Might not get Vettel behind him but if for instance Kimi and Ricciardo pit and came out behind him, if he could hold them up for 3-4 seconds it might allow Ham to pit and gain a couple of places. Definitely worth doing but it honestly depends on his pace, last year they were pitting after 15 laps for the leaders, he could quite easily be a full pitstop down on the leaders by then.
RBR race pace was nothing to laugh at yesterday either. Despite Ferrari being turned down the race pace looked extremely strong from RBR. THey may not have the engine to match Ferrari in Q3 but under race level power modes using less fuel they could still have superior pace. I think Ham has more chance of RBR taking points off Vettel than him moving up, but that is better for him due to the points differences, Vettel 2nd and Ham 5th is far better than Vettel 1st Ham 4th.