I have been thinking about the new Octopus Flux tariff again, obviously the export rates are nice, but I'm thinking that 3 hour cheap rate window is really going to be an issue. Initially I was just thinking it was pretty small to get a decent amount of charge, but I reckoned I could just about charge my 8.2 battery in the time available, assuming it started at 5%, though it is going to be very tight. However, I've realised the second issue then is that there is a longer period to get through between cheap periods, so pretty likely that the battery will not make it through on a bad solar day as there will be a much longer period that the battery will be exporting for.
Seems like a great tariff in the summer with plentiful solar and long days, but almost certainly going to end up using standard rate electricity during the winter months and not really much that could be done to avoid that, not much point in adding extra battery storage as will not be able to get any more charge into it, so that won't help (except for maybe if there happened to be a decent solar day, that allowed the battery to fully charge and that would allow the system to limp along a little longer before the battery was depleted). I think to really get the most from it will require both a large battery and battery\inverter with a high charge rate, guessing maybe it's aimed more at Powerwall owners, I guess as a replacement for the Powerwall specific tariff.
Quite possibly, the extra export return in the summer will outweigh the extra costs in the winter, though depends what happens with Agile Export prices this year, as last year they certainly seemed to rival (or beat) the flux prices quite often.