Spanish Grand Prix 2011, Circuit de Catalunya- Race 5/19

As the softs drop off though, they'd be in for new, so the hards will never really outperform.

They're just not a viable option, merely something everyone needs to endure for the minimum time possible.
I don't disagree that they are in reality, but your numbers are wrong.

If we use your example and say that soft tyres last ten laps before hards catch up to them, and we assume that the degradation of the softs is almost exactly uniform, then the hard tyres aren't twenty seconds slower than the softs over ten laps, they're ten seconds slower (2 secs faster + 1.8 secs faster on the next lap + 1.6 etc etc). Therefore, on your examples, the hards are actually a second or more quicker overall.
 
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