Forgetting they will start on softs and have to go onwards at some point. Someone do a spreadsheet, see what pirilli tyres need to do for distance wise,
Pirilli tyres don't seem to be affected by rubbering in. It's like 95% pure distance related and everyone is saying around 11 laps in the practice sessions.
You're assuming that the softs run at full performance until lap 10 though. They don't.At 2 seconds a lap slower they're just not in the picture.
If we approach this in simple terms: Assume softs last 10 laps for ease of numbers, whether they last 8 laps or 12 won't make much difference to the overall result.
If hards last 20, that's 40s slower but saving a 21s stop, 19s behind.
If hards last 30, that's 60s slower but saving 42s stops, 18s behind.
If hards last 40, that's 80s slower but saving 63s stops, 17s behind.
You can see the pattern emerging, at that sort of 2s per lap deficit they'd need more than one race before you made up the difference over continually stopping for softs, never mind more than one round of stops.
You're assuming that the softs run at full performance until lap 10 though. They don't.
Using your example, the hards are't two seconds slower for ten laps, then better. They gradually get equal to the softs in performance, then better them.