Spring Budget 2023

[neocon]

Train driving is nothing compared to lorry driving. Yet the pay is 15-20k more and you don't work 60 hours a week. Doing the same route day in day out is a piece of pie. Give them the keys to a HGV and ask them to do multidrop deliveries in Wembley Park Royal and watch him give up after 5 minutes. The difference is train drivers have fought for their wages which is good on them.

You can't exactly outsource train driving like you can lorry driving either.

 

[Uther]

Train driving is nothing compared to lorry driving. Yet the pay is 15-20k more and you don't work 60 hours a week. Doing the same route day in day out is a piece of pie. Give them the keys to a HGV and ask them to do multidrop deliveries in Wembley Park Royal and watch him give up after 5 minutes. The difference is train drivers have fought for their wages which is good on them.

Dan seems to think driving a hgv is a piece of **** unskilled job too though.
I doubt he's ever even sat in a hgv, let alone driven one.

 

[Semple]

I would ask you to define "repetitive"
Fruit picking is repetitive but extremely hard to automate because every single plant is different, and it requires constant use of judgement by a human to do it, shelf stacking is repetitive but unfortunately for robots many of the items being stacked are not easy to handle and doing it properly also requires doing things like checking the dates on items that are still on the shelf and dealing with things the inconsiderate humans have left in the wrong place.
Even cleaning is in theory easy to automate, but you can't do it blindly as you need to be able to use your judgement about how to deal with different levels and types of dirt (the roomba with the dog poop is a great, if extreme example).

There will unfortunately be corner cases, short of pulling entire strawberry plants out of the ground and dealing with them later, it may require a change in process.

Agriculture actually already has some pretty impressive automation where they can already pull fruit/veg out of the ground, goes through a machine to be cleaned and shoved in a box, and is basically packed at the other end - all on a moving vehicle.

Checking of use-by / best-before dates should be relatively trivial. That information could be embedded in a qr/barcode so would be easy to scan and determine if anything is out of date, and then reshuffle the stock so that longer life stuff is at the back.

The awkward item sizes could also be resolved by agreeing with manufacturers/suppliers specific shapes/sizes. I actually would argue that this has naturally become better with the move from plastic packaging to cardboard - cardboard wrapped items are normally always of a square/rectangle shape.

Cleaning, again I get your point, but it wouldn't be difficult for a machine to determine the best cleaning solution to apply to whatever it needs to clean up. I was also thinking more about the floor polisher that someone normally scoots around at the end of the day.

 

[Murphy]

Train driving is nothing compared to lorry driving. Yet the pay is 15-20k more and you don't work 60 hours a week. Doing the same route day in day out is a piece of pie. Give them the keys to a HGV and ask them to do multidrop deliveries in Wembley Park Royal and watch him give up after 5 minutes. The difference is train drivers have fought for their wages which is good on them.

Yea because being responsible for a single lorry with 30 odd tons onboard and maybe 10-20 people around the vehicle that you're responsible for is way more responsibility than hundreds of people and almost a qtr of a mile long vehicle with 2k tons onboard.

Don't get me wrong both are not easy jobs and both have responsibilities but when it comes to responsibility and the damage that could be caused by one of them not focusing on what they're doing it would be difficult to argue that a train driver does not have more responsibility and could kill or cause more damage than a lorry driver.

 

[Freefaller]

The are plenty of videos on Youtube showing various lines in the UK (even main lines) from a drivers perspective which shows how "automated" driving works. I.e various parts are equipped for the train to effectively run itself but the driver is still there required to check at stations, emergencies (e.g toilet alarm), they have to press to authorise at various points so the system knows they are paying attention and as an over-ride, there in case the train breaks down etc.

No country has no driver in mainline or fast speed lines, and that won't happen any time soon. More automation (like above) maybe can happen but it'll need big investment in the infrastructure... not sure where that investment will come from right now. I think it's a big myth that replacing drivers / "make everything automated" will save any money in the mid future. Maybe make things a bit safer but it's not like the UK has safety issues on train lines (nor does most of Europe). I'd personal like more staff on trains, not less. I find it strange (for me at least) being on a train in the evening in London with no staff on the train at all, when coming from a country where every train has as at least 1 ticket inspector and you regularly (almost daily) see transport Police wondering through.

Actually rail is probably one of the easiest things to automate - there's more ant more GOA3 automation on trains nice. GOA4 is a while off but not unfathomable and actually quite prevalent already in dozens of countries. Albeit not high speed trains, but still they're here.

List of driverless train systems - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

 

[dlockers]

Just enquired about my little ones childcare. They will offer her 15 hours free from September at £5.47 for 15/hrs a week but then there is a top-up of £2.53 for consumables. Funnily enough this equals the regular rate of £8 an hour

 

[danlightbulb]

You say that but it's not a job I'd want or even could do and i wouldn't consider myself someone not capable of learning, the burden of responsibility is what would, indeed has in the past, prevent me from doing such a job.

It's one thing to be responsible for another persons life, even being responsible for hundreds of lives if what you do or don't do is checked by other people before the repercussions of your choices become evident. It's quiet another to responsible for hundreds of lives in real-time with few checks or balances in place to prevent you from making a mistake, simply not seeing something, or just having an off moment.

I think you're overestimating what's involved tbh. Current train drivers aren't the cream of the crop of society are they (who is?), so why think that you couldn't do the job?

 

[Murphy]

I think you're overestimating what's involved tbh. Current train drivers aren't the cream of the crop of society are they (who is?), so why think that you couldn't do the job?

I'm not estimating, i know from having experienced it, what's involved. I also never said current train drivers are the cream of the crop of society! And I also told you why i think (know) i couldn't do the job.

 

[adam cool dude]

You can't exactly outsource train driving like you can lorry driving either.

You can't outsource lorry driving either unless you ask people from the army. Which would be less than 2,000 and half of that is only Class 2 at best. You would have 268,000 to outsource which has already reduced 50+k since 2017. The situation with HGV drivers is just as bleak as doctors but the government seem to have their heads in the sand with that one.

If train drivers stopped tomorrow you could supplement with own cars or buses. If all the lorries stopped tomorrow the country would be brought to its knees.

Yea because being responsible for a single lorry with 30 odd tons onboard and maybe 10-20 people around the vehicle that you're responsible for is way more responsibility than hundreds of people and almost a qtr of a mile long vehicle with 2k tons onboard.

Don't get me wrong both are not easy jobs and both have responsibilities but when it comes to responsibility and the damage that could be caused by one of them not focusing on what they're doing it would be difficult to argue that a train driver does not have more responsibility and could kill or cause more damage than a lorry driver.

Responsibility doesn't equal more difficult though does it? The amount of variables that can effect a HGV driver is immeasurably higher than a train driver. Whether you kill one person or 100 it is still the same in my opinion. The risk is not reduced.

 

[chrcoluk]

Easy answer - you're put out that the pay difference between unskilled and medium skilled jobs (like yours) is not high and, at one point, you mentioned NMW not helping... Perhaps, instead of being annoyed about unskilled pay being higher than you'd like, the medium skilled job employers should pay more?




See my point above. But also - "engineer" is an extremely broad term nowadays. What are you and engineer in and what professional qualifications do you have?






Exactly.

The point is - no one these days wants to do the dirty physical jobs anymore. They have been sold a future of office working and 9-5 hours. In order to be able to fill these unskilled roles, employers need to pay more.

Supply and demand....lots of people want a cushy engineering role (see what I did there?) and not be a binman

True, but I think these roles would usually be filled by migrant workers, and now that worker supply chain has been cut off (government only wants to let in skilled migrant workers) they have turned to the sick and poor unemployed. I think the mindset dan has is wedged into society that even without supply, they wont budge on the wages, instead government steps in to push people.

The NHS is interesting as the government are holding firm on their low pay offers, whilst highly paid consultants are been given a nice carrot to try and carry on working, with money the government claimed didnt exist.

 

[Murphy]

Responsibility doesn't equal more difficult though does it? The amount of variables that can effect a HGV driver is immeasurably higher than a train driver. Whether you kill one person or 100 it is still the same in my opinion. The risk is not reduced.

It does if you're not someone who's comfortable with the thought of being responsible for millions of pounds worth of stuff and other peoples lives, with having that thought constantly in the back of your mind.

I wouldn't say the amount of variables is 'immeasurably' higher, it's probably higher but so is the amount of control you have over events. Trying to draw a direct comparison seems futile as there's so many differences but that's why i boiled it down to 'well what's the worst that could happen'.

e: Like i said neither are what I'd consider easy jobs but having worked alongside train drivers and HGV drivers (along with driving fixed bed 7.5t myself) i know what one I'd prefer to do given the choice and it ain't drive a train.

 

[chrcoluk]

But isn't that the circular issue I was talking about?

Minimum wage is there to ensure that a basic level of income is met. Currently that basic level isn't really enough to meet current cost of living as we all know. So if middle earners start being paid more, that will raise the differential again, creating a living standards issue for the poorer people in lower paid jobs.

Fundamentally the issue is that our economy works on there being a differential. We're only better off 'relative' to others, unfortunately. That's what creates the unequal society we live in.

But there has to be a differential otherwise there is no incentive to do better, which is how I think things are going at least in my sector. I could be a train driver for a similar salary as I get now and I wouldn't have to deal with complex project deadlines and mentally draining challenges. Just turn up to shift, drive train, go home.

Mentally challenging jobs are definitely better, as the day passes by so much quicker and its mentally stimulating.

Again going back to my first job, and I think it contributed to my promotion there, I often volunteered to do roles that were above my pay grade, why would I do a job for below the normal pay? Because it was a better job, it was less boring, less physically demanding.

Are you really telling us dan, that if every job paid the same you would choose to do boring physical repetitive work? Also these physical jobs have their own form of deadlines by requiring to work at a certain pace.

My current work I am even able to come on here and discuss things with people, working from home. without a boss looming over me, I would take that any day of the week over my first job.

I think a fair amount of people actually genuinely enjoy doing their jobs.

 

[Richie]

I think you're overestimating what's involved tbh. Current train drivers aren't the cream of the crop of society are they (who is?), so why think that you couldn't do the job?

There's a difference of being  able to do the job in practical terms and  wanting to do the job and @Murphy has advised why he doesn't want to do the job... He, perhaps, should have used the word "wouldn't" rather than "couldn't" but it's a well used phrase in today's language to say you can't do something when you mean you wouldn't want to.


Edit - also, @danlightbulb, I think you also underestimate that particular job going by what you say.

I'll ask a 3rd time this morning as you don't appear to see me asking - what kind of engineering do you do and what professional qualifications do you have?

 

[Curlyriff]

Because I was paying £7/hr for childcare, then £7.50 and as of 1st April - £8/hr. And I know for sure that of the 10 or so staff, 5 or 6 are youfff on appreticechips etc. and the owners husband is on pay roll, her sis/niece etc...

They now rent a school premises at ultra low cost too...

Nurseries not being profitable is a cop out IMHO. Maybe it is region dependant.

The nursery staff here are working 7.30am till 6pm to cover the 8am to 5.50pm nursery opening time. So 10.5hrs per staff member.

The national minimum wage is £10.42 so per staff member. So you are at £27,500 per annum for a senior nursery career (that what they on) The younger staff are on £7.49 regardless age so they are around £19,800 per annum.

Let's take 16 children and its 4 per career (average with ages generally there) the weekly rate is £236.25 per child. So £3780 a week income assuming full time care.

Weekly wages are £1671 then, plus health care, pension, insurance for those staff.

Rent for property to run the childcare centre is £550 a week (Gloucestershire area). Then you have public liability insurance which theirs is around £17.45 a week.

Gas, Electric and Water services another £100 a week. Then you have office supplies, IT, payroll, cleaners, general childcare related supplies such as things for children to do, activities, learning materials pac testing, ISO and code compliance review etc. That is around £200 a week breaking down the annual last year.

ongoing maintenance to fitout of the nursery. Marketing, training. All that is easily another £200 a week.

So now you are at something that £2640 per week expenditure assuming nothing else crops up. So an annual return is £59,280. This gives about a 29% profit margin at best. Then corporation tax takes away about £11k so you are around £48k.

The person on the £29k wage takes that as dividends from that profit (you wouldnt take all that course etc) but that puts them as a total annual earner of around £90k if they did. Honestly for the work time and running a business that isn't a hugely healthy margin. That works back to £4.5hr per child by way.

 

[danlightbulb]

Ultimately it's like me saying your job is "turn up, operate computer, go home"

I wouldn't argue with that.

 

[Murphy]

There's a difference of being  able to do the job in practical terms and  wanting to do the job and @Murphy has advised why he doesn't want to do the job... He, perhaps, should have used the word "wouldn't" rather than "couldn't" but it's a well used phrase in today's language to say you can't do something when you mean you wouldn't want to.

To clarify when i used the term couldn't (i wasn't even aware i used it) i didn't mean to imply that i physically couldn't or couldn't even do it for a while. It's that i know eventually the thought of knowing that one mistake, one off moment, or one choice i did or didn't make could result in other people losing their lives or becoming permanently injured along with the potential financial cost would take a mental toll.

But then i tend to be a little flower who constantly thinks about what may happen and catastrophize things far to much.

 

[wesimmo]

Dan is very much a Meism practitioner...

I've done all sorts of jobs back when I was at school/uni and many of them, although 'unskilled', I wouldn't want to have done knowing that was my life and not just a few weeks/months.

Night shift cleaning a factory that produced pork pies and such was just horrible, as was doing the sorting at a DPD type warehouse moving stuff from artics to local delivery lorries overnight.

Driving through the night in 3.5t curtain sided wagons was not much fun most of the time, although occasionally seeing the sun come up over stunning scenery was a silver lining.

Being a fish monger at Morrisons was terrible, dealing with the public and the smell stuck for days no matter how well you washed.

Give me an office job where I get to talk to people and is mentally challenging any day.

 

[Greebo]

If you think 8-10 under 2's per carer is something to aspire too you clearly dont have kids.

Hey dont shoot me. The question was asked as to why childcare was so much more expensive in this country than elsewhere. The answer mainly lies in the very small ratios of 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 that we allow in this country,

I never said it was the wrong thing to do and that we should have bigger ratios.

And As a consequence of these low ratios, the amount out govt pays for the 30 free hours means that all the other parents have to subsidise the costs of the free places as £4.44 per child just isnt enough.

 

[n111ck]

Hey dont shoot me. The question was asked as to why childcare was so much more expensive in this country than elsewhere. The answer mainly lies in the very small ratios of 3 to 1 and 4 to 1 that we allow in this country,

I never said it was the wrong thing to do and that we should have bigger ratios.

And As a consequence of these low ratios, the amount out govt pays for the 30 free hours means that all the other parents have to subsidise the costs of the free places as £4.44 per child just isnt enough.

So making comparisons with other countries is pointless if they are not like for like.

 

[Semple]

Actually rail is probably one of the easiest things to automate - there's more ant more GOA3 automation on trains nice. GOA4 is a while off but not unfathomable and actually quite prevalent already in dozens of countries. Albeit not high speed trains, but still they're here.

List of driverless train systems - Wikipedia

en.wikipedia.org

Agreed, if money wasn't an issue you could completely automate the entire rail network in a few years. The biggest challenge is trying to integrate automation into an ancient network which is constantly breaking down and requires various human elements (signal controllers) to keep it running.