The disappearance of Nicola Bulley

CaptainCaracaras said:
All those who are saying no way it can be an abduction, just look at the ladies video I posted.
Looks very abductable to me, given the right circumstances. There are areas which are not visible from any windows or houses.
Plus quite a few trees for cover in various different places. Also the river is out of the line of sight by the mobile home park. It sits about 12+ feet below.
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I'm worried that you seem to find an area to be "very abductable". You got an alibi?
 
Zatoichi.uK said:
Hard to believe she would let her 2 kids think she's dead.
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It has happened before with the canoe man though. His children disowned him after iirc.

I also find it funny that everyone thinks they are a happy couple. Been together 13 years. When you have been together that long it isn't easy. You have many ups and downs. Facebook is great for keeping up appearances but offers nothing.
 
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adam cool dude said:
The professional boat scanner guy was interviewed on GB news iirc. It is on YouTube. He has done 100's of these so I would kind of believe him.

youtu.be

'Impossible' that Nicola Bulley has been washed away to sea | Forensic expert claims

'Normally when a person drowns they go straight to the bottom. That's in my 20-odd years of experience of dealing with drowning victims.'Forensic expert, Pet...
youtu.be youtu.be
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I wouldn't. His logic is flawed. I run a team of 5 tugs and workboats. We've pulled plenty of things out of rivers and the sea, including bodies of people that had been in only a few days. During Arwen we were pulling trees out of the river mouth the next day. The nearest patch of woodland they could have entered from is 12 miles upstream.
Yes, they can stay in a relatively similar place for some time, but they can also move. My great-uncle was found only 200m from where he went in after weeks. The guy we pulled out in december was a mile away in 12 hours and had ended up snagged on one of our ladders.
A lot will depend on the tides, whether a body has snagged, what the person is wearing, whether the river is in flood.

Last week we removed a 20t tubular steel structure that had dropped off a vessel from the river. It had moved 50m downstream along the river bed in a day.
 
I think his whole attitude is 'we can't find her so she's not there' which is a bit daft. Nothing is 100%.
 
Dis86 said:
I wouldn't. His logic is flawed. I run a team of 5 tugs and workboats. We've pulled plenty of things out of rivers and the sea, including bodies of people that had been in only a few days. During Arwen we were pulling trees out of the river mouth the next day. The nearest patch of woodland they could have entered from is 12 miles upstream.
Yes, they can stay in a relatively similar place for some time, but they can also move. My great-uncle was found only 200m from where he went in after weeks. The guy we pulled out in december was a mile away in 12 hours and had ended up snagged on one of our ladders.
A lot will depend on the tides, whether a body has snagged, what the person is wearing, whether the river is in flood.

Last week we removed a 20t tubular steel structure that had dropped off a vessel from the river. It had moved 50m downstream along the river bed in a day.
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I'm am sorry but you are some random guy on the internet. It is literally his job to find dead bodies.

Maybe you are right but at this moment in time I will listen to the professional.
 
adam cool dude said:
I'm am sorry but you are some random guy on the internet. It is literally his job to find dead bodies.

Maybe you are right but at this moment in time I will listen to the professional.
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It is literally my job to work on the river and sea every day. To know the effect the river has on our structures. To know what effect it has on vessels using the river. To know how those vessels are going to behave when transiting and moored.

If I wanted to wack it out I bet I've spent more time on the water than he has.

Remember, this is the guy who apparently claimed he'd find her in an hour if she was was there yet has spent 2 days searching...
 
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Dis86 said:
It is literally my job to work on the river and sea every day. To know the effect the river has on our structures. To know what effect it has on vessels using the river. To know how those vessels are going to behave when transiting and moored.

If I wanted to wack it out I bet I've spent more time on the water than he has.

Remember, this is the guy who apparently claimed he'd find her in an hour if she was was there yet has spent 2 days searching...
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He never claimed he would find her in an hour.

He said generally they find people within an hour. I even highlighted the important word for you, which would imply sometimes they don't find them.

In saying that, I do think with his expertise in the field of finding missing people, i'd take his word for it. Is it entirely possible that she could be in the water just way further downstream than they have searched. Sure, that is possible, but as said it's often the case that bodies sink pretty quickly and may surface after a few days due to bloating, this river is 15km long, very shallow in places and slow flowing.

Is it possible that a floating corpse managed to float downstream for 15km, without snagging on anything, while going through dozens of twists and turns, without beaching at multiple locations, entering a large lake area, and managing to some how make it through a small opening that leads out to sea where it could potentially just vanish forever.

Sure that could happen, but its so unlikely that the odds would probably be in the millions.
 
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MadMossy said:
He never claimed he would find her in an hour.

He said generally they find people within an hour. I even highlighted the important word for you, which would imply sometimes they don't find them.
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Do I need to highlight words too? Read my last paragraph again.
 
MadMossy said:
He never claimed he would find her in an hour.

He said generally they find people within an hour. I even highlighted the important word for you, which would imply sometimes they don't find them.
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Which would also suggest that him not finding her doesn't mean she isn't in the water...

As several people, including myself have pointed out it's hardly uncommon for a body to not be found for weeks despite multiple thorough searches, even on relatively short, straight patches of water that doesn't have a huge number of obstructions. That is the reasons some of us were raising eyebrows at the "usually" (although I think the first post didn't have that qualifier), as there are so many variables with regards to searching for bodies in water even along the same stretch the conditions can vary massively depending on time of day/year, weather, and even what the local farmers or sewerage outflow has been doing.
 
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MadMossy said:
He never claimed he would find her in an hour.

He said generally they find people within an hour. I even highlighted the important word for you, which would imply sometimes they don't find them.

In saying that, I do think with his expertise in the field of finding missing people, i'd take his word for it. Is it entirely possible that she could be in the water just way further downstream than they have searched. Sure, that is possible, but as said it's often the case that bodies sink pretty quickly and may surface after a few days due to bloating, this river is 15km long, very shallow in places and slow flowing.

Is it possible that a floating corpse managed to float downstream for 15km, without snagging on anything, while going through dozens of twists and turns, without beaching at multiple locations, entering a large lake area, and managing to some how make it through a small opening that leads out to sea where it could potentially just vanish forever.

Sure that could happen, but its so unlikely that the odds would probably be in the millions.
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Do you have any knowledge of the fluid dynamics in rivers? How currents work?
 
Dis86 said:
It is literally my job to work on the river and sea every day. To know the effect the river has on our structures. To know what effect it has on vessels using the river. To know how those vessels are going to behave when transiting and moored.

If I wanted to wack it out I bet I've spent more time on the water than he has.

Remember, this is the guy who apparently claimed he'd find her in an hour if she was was there yet has spent 2 days searching...
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He is taking a massive risk saying she is not in the sea then when a large part of his business is finding dead bodies. Why would he do that?
 
adam cool dude said:
He is taking a massive risk saying she is not in the sea then when a large part of his business is finding dead bodies. Why would he do that?
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Because its easy to get out of if she is. River dynamics are (very) difficult to model. I've already given you a limited example of some of the variables.
 
MadMossy said:
I have a rough idea, but I never claimed to know either way. Feel free to give us all a lesson in fluid dynamics if you wish. I would expect an expert in underwater rescue with several decades experience to know at least something about it beyond "water is wet".
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So you know enough to declare "Sure that could happen, but its so unlikely that the odds would probably be in the millions."
 
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