The disappearance of Nicola Bulley

[mcast123]

It's likely she's far downstream, she may never be found. Sad for everyone involved.

 

[Uther]

It's likely she's far downstream, she may never be found. Sad for everyone involved.

I hope they do for the kids sake.

 

[dlockers]

Yes. From my engineering degree in which I studied fluid dynamics and from my 5 years experience as chief engineer for a port operator.
The fact that I have boatmen work for me who have spent 40 years on the river. Literally a minimum of 8 hours a day, 5 days a week for 40 years. Pilots who have 25 years experience on the river and deep sea experience prior to that.
The fact that we operate 5 work and tug boats amongst our fleet which are on the river every day.
That I operate daily and quarterly dredging campaigns with regular sonar surveys to monitor silting patterns and debris deposits.

We only believe folk with big arms and Nursing doctorates tbh.

 

[413x]

I hope she's found. Can't be much worse than not knowing but thinking someone you love is dead.

Youd likely have this fight logic over heart. Heart thinking they could be alive. Brain telling you no.

 

[dlockers]

Exactly, it's puzzling why he would say he's 100% sure, that's more biased than the police saying she's likely in the water.

He said 100% sure she isn't the section he examined, no?

 

[Dis86]

Ok fair enough I stand moderately corrected, but how much experience do you have with search and rescue when it comes to finding bodies with dangly bits (arms and legs!) in the river vs the experts in this case?

As I've said, we have pulled a fair few bodies out even in the time i've been there, we often find out where they went in (particularly with having bridges upstream). And also as I said it is incredibly difficult to model how something will behave in the river as there are a lot of variables. My point throughout was that this guy cannot say anything with certainty as certainty simply doesn't exist.

I'll give another example. Last year we had one of the largest shipping operators in the world berth one of their flagship vessels in the port. They have a team of very highly qualified engineers and sailors who dictate how the vessel is to be moored. What fendering will be required. What ropes.
Said vessel crushed its fenders and destroyed 2 of them. It then contacted the stationary fendering of our quayside absolutely ripping it to pieces. The vessel was barely scratched.
The reason, they didn't factor in how a current within the river would interact with wind loading and how the river channel magnifies wind speeds.

 

[Johno please?]

I hope they do for the kids sake.

A corpse will make them feel better?

 

[Uther]

A corpse will make them feel better?

Better than never knowing imo.

 

[CaptainKimura]

He also seems to be all over the media spreading his theories, his one hour timeline etc. Wonder if he has an alibi...

Nope...but conveniently he has just released a book, this is the best publicity he could ask for. I didn't see him offering to look for Peter Baglin who's property was found by a canal.

 

[Dis86]

Nope...but conveniently he has just released a book, this is the best publicity he could ask for. I didn't see him offering to look for Peter Baglin who's property was found by a canal.

Motive is clear!

 

[Mercenary Keyboard Warrior]

I see Brexiters in here mentioning experts. When did they start trusting experts again?
They spent years telling us experts couldn't be trusted.

I think shes vanished like an old oak table

 

[Tombstone]

Well theres a Brexit reference, we've already had a Nazi reference, have we had a Donald Trump or Boris Johnson reference yet for the hattrick?

 

[mcast123]

I see a 16yo lad vanished in the exact same area in 1978...

"The young student was carried away in a swiftly running brook and his later body washed ashore on a sandbank at low tide close to a bridge seven miles from St Michael's. The teenager's body wasn't found until two months later. "
"I've seen the TV pictures of the river near where Nicola went missing and it doesn't look that deep or fast-flowing. But I've also looked on a website which charts river levels and there had been a spike on January 26, the day before she vanished."
"I think the river conditions were pretty similar when Roger went missing and he was obviously swept over the weir and into the tidal part of the river. He has found near Shard Bridge which is a fair distance away from St Michael's."

So yes, it's possible she's past the weir.

(the nuts are going to love the fact it was the same day 45 years ago)

 

[Mysterae_]

I see a 16yo lad vanished in the exact same area in 1978...
..
(the nuts are going to love the fact it was the same day 45 years ago)

Well theres a Brexit reference, we've already had a Nazi reference, have we had a Donald Trump or Boris Johnson reference yet for the hattrick?

Looks like we can add ghost or paranormal activity to the nutter's theory list.

 

[Minusorange]

Detectives have also analysed data from her Fitbit smart watch, they said

From the latest BBC article

Would it have given them any extra info in order for them to be sure she fell in the river ? If abducted it would have tracked her no ?

 

[Werewolf]

From the latest BBC article

Would it have given them any extra info in order for them to be sure she fell in the river ? If abducted it would have tracked her no ?

if she was wearing it, and within range I'm guessing the accelorometers might have shown something? I know some smart watches etc have automatic fall detection and can offer to call the emergency services, but I don't know if a fitbit would, or if it would update the phone app or whatever in real time/fast enough if she went into the water.

 

[Dis86]

if she was wearing it, and within range I'm guessing the accelorometers might have shown something? I know some smart watches etc have automatic fall detection and can offer to call the emergency services, but I don't know if a fitbit would, or if it would update the phone app or whatever in real time/fast enough if she went into the water.

Depending on the model some have GPS.

 

[Participant]

Imagine if, after all this, she got caught short and is just having a really tricky poo in the bull rushes adjacent the river bank.

 

[[FnG]magnolia]

Imagine if, after all this, she got caught short and is just having a really tricky poo in the bull rushes adjacent the river bank.

Yes, imagine the hilarity that would ensue.

 

[Blackjack Davy]

As I've said, we have pulled a fair few bodies out even in the time i've been there, we often find out where they went in (particularly with having bridges upstream). And also as I said it is incredibly difficult to model how something will behave in the river as there are a lot of variables. My point throughout was that this guy cannot say anything with certainty as certainty simply doesn't exist.

I'll give another example. Last year we had one of the largest shipping operators in the world berth one of their flagship vessels in the port. They have a team of very highly qualified engineers and sailors who dictate how the vessel is to be moored. What fendering will be required. What ropes.
Said vessel crushed its fenders and destroyed 2 of them. It then contacted the stationary fendering of our quayside absolutely ripping it to pieces. The vessel was barely scratched.
The reason, they didn't factor in how a current within the river would interact with wind loading and how the river channel magnifies wind speeds.

I think I remember years ago a similar situation where a body wasn't found for months because at this time of year the waters near freezing so decomposition is basically non existent and it could be at the bottom somewhere later in teh spring when it warms up it'll bloat and float to the surface and make it easier to spot. Grim thought.