Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (April Poll)
- Thread starter Burnsy2023
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Nonsense. The World will still spin and the Sun will still rise. Other countries will continue to trade and invest and we shall all dance and be merry.
Caporegime
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Your source for this is? You can speculate all you want. In the end no one really knows what will happen until it has happened.
It all boils down to whether you want things to continue as they are or want to take the risk and see how bad or good things could be on the outside.
It is like being in the same job all your life that isn't all that.
You get offered redundancy. Do you take that risk and take redundancy and do something with it or do you carry on as you were?
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Ofcourse there is no source, its pure speculation on my part, as most of the posts in this forum.
I was responding to a poster who said, UK leaving will cause a chain reaction of the breakup of the EU.
My argument is that the EU will try to protect themselves from this occurring and that the UK will not be treated in any special way as most of the Brexit campaigners claim that we will be. It is highly likely that they will go out of their way to further protect themselves from a possible collapse by giving us a bad deal.
And you can look at the evidence of the recent negotiation where cameron literally got nothing out of the EU.
The simple fact is, if we leave, we won't get a good deal. We will be thread like every other country outside the club, no matter if we are the 5th strongest nation. So this notion that we will get special treatment is nonsense.
I was responding to a poster who said, UK leaving will cause a chain reaction of the breakup of the EU.
My argument is that the EU will try to protect themselves from this occurring and that the UK will not be treated in any special way as most of the Brexit campaigners claim that we will be. It is highly likely that they will go out of their way to further protect themselves from a possible collapse by giving us a bad deal.
And you can look at the evidence of the recent negotiation where cameron literally got nothing out of the EU.
The simple fact is, if we leave, we won't get a good deal. We will be thread like every other country outside the club, no matter if we are the 5th strongest nation. So this notion that we will get special treatment is nonsense.
I never said it will save the EU economies. But it can prevent a chain reaction of other members leaving if they see that the UK got no special concession.
If the UK does get a far better deal leaving, then what do you think other member states will do? Anti-EU parties popularity across the EU would go through the roof, by giving them a prime example of a how successful the UK has been. It almost guarantees the disintegration of the EU / Euro.
Can you show me a quote where I said other countries will not trade with the UK anymore?
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Yeah that 5th place really helped with the recent negotiation with the EU. Or the "back of the queue" comment from Obama.
They sure are treating us as royalty.
No one said it will, just that it could
Yeah that 5th place really helped with the recent negotiation with the EU. Or the "back of the queue" comment from Obama.
They sure are treating us as royalty.
Obama wants us in the EU because we have a close relationship with the US and that helps translate to US influence in the EU. Obama likes to use simple analogys to appeal to the the man on the street, people can relate to a "queue", but in reality the United States Government can negotiate with China, Russia, the EU and the UK all on the same day if they have to.
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The one, where we will be treated as being in the single market, with freedom of movement not applying to us and a vast reduced rate of paying into the EU. Among other stuff, this is just from the top of my head.
e.i, we are not Norway and we will get a far better deal than Norway.
Yeah it could and I agree with you there. That's where my argument comes from, where is the incentive for the EU to give us a great deal and good concession if it risk the stability of their union?
What do you think a deal such as in above scenario will do to the popularity of the anti-EU parties across all of Europe?
Imagine if it was the other way around and France leaves and they get a really good deal out of the negotiation. What do you think Nigel Farage and UKIP would be saying in return? They would be using France as a great example.
Yeah ofcourse they can negotiate multiple deals at once, but would they want to progress far into it, if the other deal with the EU has not been complete?
How do you know exactly what do you need if you haven't even come close to the terms with another trading partner and nothing has been set in stone?
Yes I do know that, I am not sure what point are we discussing now?
My point was that some Brexit campaigners have said that the freedom of movement from the EU will not apply to the UK etc, which will reduce immigration hugely.
But the EU will never agreed to that, as you point out.
The reality is that despite the fact it would give groups in other countries ammunition for a referendum, they would HAVE to give us a good deal because it would damage their economy. The markets and large corporations who pay billions in tax would demand a good trade deal with the UK, governments have to listen to that sort of pressure.
Similar to the above, the US has large companies who trade with us, they would demand a trade agreement be in place pretty sharpish or it would affect both countries.
As far as I am aware they don't? The freedom of movement only applies to the countries inside the EEA agreement, where a worker can go and live and work in any other 28 member states without an issue?
Coming from outside the EEA area, you cannot simply move across to a member state and live there.
The argument that UK will get to keep the same economic deal as now but exempt from the freedom of movement rights is highly unlikely to happen.
I am not quite sure what point you're trying to make? Clearly I must have misunderstood something.
But by giving you this deal, you could potentially cause far more damage to the EU countries, if the whole thing collapses around you.
The economic impact of having a collapsed EU / Euro is far greater than having a bad deal with one country.
If you simply compare the economic impact of the two events, breaking up of the EU / Euro is far more damaging long term to the Europe's economy and the worlds economy. Not to mention the political and geopolitical landscape that would change because of the breakup. Even large corporation know if the EU goes up in smoke, so will their business in those areas.
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