Poll: The EU Referendum: How Will You Vote? (March Poll)

Should the United Kingdom remain a member of the European Union or leave the European Union?

  • Remain a member of the European Union

    Votes: 400 43.3%
  • Leave the European Union

    Votes: 523 56.7%

  • Total voters
    923
  • Poll closed .
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One thing I really dislike in the EU is when Greece got into trouble they immediately raided all the countries including the UK for money. They just demanded and overruled any claims by the countries that shouldn't be paying. This happened twice! I have a big fear of things getting bad again which seems ever more likely and if we stay in the EU we will be tied to this sinking ship. As it drowns it will get desperate and we will go down with it. This risk is just too high.
 
I'm a European federalist and have a firmly held belief that alignment and cooperation leads to better outcomes for everybody. It's evidenced in the playing out of the entire of human history, with ever larger groups of people working together for common cause.

However, I also think that individual liberty and freedom from oppression is important, that government is not particularly good at provision of services, and that economic prosperity is a critical. The EU is not a great example of these. It has fundamental problems in it's structure and organisation, and a lack of strategic leadership leaves the EU internally weak. It is hard to see how my hope of a federal Europe will ever be realised - do the failures of the EU do that dream more harm than good?
 
One thing I really dislike in the EU is when Greece got into trouble they immediately raided all the countries including the UK for money. They just demanded and overruled any claims by the countries that shouldn't be paying. This happened twice! I have a big fear of things getting bad again which seems ever more likely and if we stay in the EU we will be tied to this sinking ship. As it drowns it will get desperate and we will go down with it. This risk is just too high.

In my opinion economic conditions across the EU will only get worse. The EU ordered Cyprus to seize up to 10% of people's savings as part of the bailout deal, together with withdrawal restrictions on taking cash out of the wall. Who's to say they wouldn't try the same thing with other countries across Europe when the need arises.
 
Is the BBC pro stay I take it? Every article I read seems to follow the same layout;

1. Title saying how devastating exiting would be on 'x'
2. 90% of the content from experts and analysts about why
3. 10% of the content from experts and analysts about why it wouldn't
 
Is the BBC pro stay I take it? Every article I read seems to follow the same layout;

1. Title saying how devastating exiting would be on 'x'
2. 90% of the content from experts and analysts about why
3. 10% of the content from experts and analysts about why it wouldn't
I think the BBC have been making a concerted effort to be critical to both sides. They report what the think thanks, politicians, whoever announce, but they do also fact-check and compare statistics in a way few other organisations bother to do.
 
Problem is that the debate shouldn't really be about what the EU looks like at the moment, but what the EU will look like when TPTB say "yup - that's enough integration". There seems to be a general reluctance amongst the people who want to stay in to acknowledge that ever-closer-union will continue to happen, and a naïve belief that we'll be allowed a referendum every 20 years or so about our continued membership of the EU.

Completely agree.

The EU "project" is all about creating a European superstate; one central bank, one legislature, one executive, one judicial branch, one army etc. The real question at the referendum is not "Do we want to stay or leave" it's "Should the UK be subsumed into a European superstate".
 
Is the BBC pro stay I take it? Every article I read seems to follow the same layout;

1. Title saying how devastating exiting would be on 'x'
2. 90% of the content from experts and analysts about why
3. 10% of the content from experts and analysts about why it wouldn't

If their experts find more credible material to make content portraying staying as more appealing then when they report it, then that is obviously how it comes across but that wont mean there is any bias or motive other than the reasons reported.
 
If their experts find more credible material to make content portraying staying as more appealing then when they report it, then that is obviously how it comes across but that wont mean there is any bias or motive other than the reasons reported.

Indeed. Fact is, there's just more credible data out there about the status quo. We can be relatively certain what will happen if we stay. We have a good idea as to what will happen (initially) if we leave. The main area of speculation in this debate is over the long-term economic effects of leaving. It's difficult to know what will happen if we do, therefore challenging to present a fact-based argument on this scenario.
 
*Mega snip*

Wait… Are you trying to dismiss actual EU accounts and subsequent audits with a scattershot of media buzz of varied editorial quality, Mulder? Fancy that!

You've also committed to posting absolute numbers from different reporting periods, where it is even tangentially interesting, presumably to inflate their value in the popular imagination. Then, when this still looks weak, you conflate to the gills and hope nobody notices. Lastly, you and the less literate media have always made the error of assuming the proposed spending and take by the EU is the actual, undisputed amount that gets spent or taken. Smooth.

I believe we covered the fraud and waste ratio yesterday. It's also worth restating from the earlier thread that the EU budget adds up to a whopping 1% of the members' combined economic output; 99.8% of which goes to where they said it'll go, mostly directly to 'to citizens, regions, cities, farmers and businesses' -- such Machiavellian pursuits, really; with our national budget, representative conduct and local spending raising more of a question. But let's not get facts get in the way, eh?

Subjective spending like foreign aid and anything to do with the upkeep of buildings and new construction is always going to find critics in national parliaments and in the EU along political lines; but it is marginal, agreed and accounted for, including the former materiality matters. For every other popular myth, there's this: http://ec.europa.eu/budget/explained/myths/myths_en.cfm.

The supporting documentation and procedural explanations are linked on the same page; just click on the subsection of interest. Were we greatly opposed, we would have vetoed. Would I personally like to see less spent on X and more on Y as a citizen? Sure. But that's neither here nor there.

As for that ex-Kipster who got sacked on professional grounds, have a look at the case, and see for yourself: http://curia.europa.eu/juris/liste....mat=or&parties=Andreasen&jge=&for=&cid=126452.

Looks like she couldn't back up her claims, appealed and failed again. But was it for the grand cause of exposing heinous crimes of the EU? Nope, she was more concerned about her pension entitlement!

Since you gave me the Metro, I'll give you her wiki summary, just in case that's all you're after: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Marta_Andreasen.

A cheerful person. Imperfect world. Life goes on.
 

Your opinion on the quality of the UK's media outlets is appreciated, but debating and understanding the facts is always the key to making a reasoned judgement, not engaging in emotional debate based on our already held beliefs.

Frankly, If I had to choose whether to believe the "official" EU position, or go with a wide variety of newspapers (of various editorial quality, as you put it), commentators and other publications, I'd put my trust in the latter. I have a lot more faith in the likes of the Telegraph, the Guardian, the Independent etc to shed some real light on how the EU spends it money, rather than taking the official word as gospel.

By your logic we should have always just believed the official line around MP's expenses then, and the newspaper investigations that led to pressure and ultimately change should have been ignored (maybe they are not of the requisite quality...).

Your comments about the "less literate media" and how I'm "conflating to the gills" really don't convince me that the examples I shared above are inaccurate and don't reflect how wasteful and bloated the EU is. In fact you haven't disputed a single one of them. Subjective spending on foreign aid and the upkeep of buildings? What about the billions going missing in Egypt and Italy, hundreds of Eurocrats being paid more than our PM, and the island thousands of miles away near Australia with seven EU diplomats and millions of Euros in EU aid? You may well think these as historic or frivolous, but they are indicative of how the EU operate.

Euroscepticism is on the rise (across the whole of Europe) for a reason, and judging by the results of this poll the majority of OCUK members fit into that camp. It will be interesting to see how this changes in the new poll.
 

And taking context-free media headlines and wishful Leave propaganda at face value is the pinnacle of honest intellectual engagement? Would you be in the tinfoil crew that doesn't trust the OBR, the Treasury or the BoE too? Do you ever venture beyond the safety of a click-bait headline? Discredited B-list politicians and their drama? Ho ho! In which case, I can only wish you many happy wonderings on the internet and strong medication.

Since you didn't bother tracking down your own bold, emotional claims to the sources, or fact-checking any of them, I did the work for you. Now that both the argument against, cobbled from newspaper clippings as it is, and the official responses are in the open, I'm happy enough. Lurkers can click on my or your links and decide for themselves what's codswallop or not in terms of supporting evidence.

But if you are so paranoid, how about investing some money in the scheme Tunney linked?

Full Fact are looking to raise money to help fact check the referendum.

A worthy cause? I think we're likely to hear a lot of nonsense from both sides in the run up to the vote.

I did because the quality of data does matter. Seems like a good idea to finally start putting a few researchers above the fray, and have them go through what's already available. Our media has its uses, but it can never quite escape the grasp of its editorial stance.
 
And taking context-free media headlines and wishful Leave propaganda at face value is the pinnacle of honest intellectual engagement? Would you be in the tinfoil crew that doesn't trust the OBR, the Treasury or the BoE too? Do you ever venture beyond the safety of a click-bait headline? Discredited B-list politicians and their drama? Ho ho! In which case, I can only wish you many happy wonderings on the internet and strong medication.

Since you didn't bother tracking down your own bold, emotional claims to the sources, or fact-checking any of them, I did the work for you. Now that both the argument against, cobbled from newspaper clippings as it is, and the official responses are in the open, I'm happy enough. Lurkers can click on my or your links and decide for themselves what's codswallop or not in terms of supporting evidence.

Ha! That post made me laugh out loud at work. It looks like we may need to agree to disagree.

Here's a simple question you might be able to answer; have you provided any evidence to support your claims (or dispute mine) that isn't spouted from official EU sources? As far as i can see your argument is "These things must be true as they're official, and we must trust the EU!". Well frankly, I don't. And as I say above, if the media in the UK hadn't exposed the truth around the MPs expenses scandal we would have never learnt the truth. It certainty wouldn't have come from official sources without that level of pressure from the media/public. Media pressure highlighting what's wrong with our governing institutions (such as what I've provided, and you've failed to dispute) is what drives them to change, they're never going to admit wasting billions of their own accord.

Also, tinfoil crew who'll be needing strong medication? Nice argument. That really is (in your words) the "pinnacle of honest intellectual engagement". As you say any observers to our debate can make their own minds up.

Bring on the April poll!
 
Good piece by Tonight regarding immigration.

Areas that are cheap and in decline get shoveled all the refugees / asylum seekers = area gets worse and worse, locals feel displaced, services unable to cope due to a lack of funding, cuts and poor local economy.

Economic migrants all flock to the areas of work, and generally offset the negative problems, but cause other issues such as placing a massive strain on local services which can't expand quick enough to meet the demands of the area.

What it does highlight however is that there currently isn't any real solution. What needs to happen is an equal dispersion of economic migrants, refugees and asylum seekers throughout the UK, however that simply wont happen.
 
reduce the numbers alowed in so that the rate they arrive at is in line with the ability of local services to expand?

You would first need a policy to invest the declared GDP benefits immigration brings into the areas affected by the immigration before you could work out the time frames/numbers needed
 

You do know that if there were no official sources, it would be a complete fabrication; the sort of fabrication that got BoJo sacked from the Times?

I was also checking whether you had read your own articles, and it appears you hadn't; otherwise you'd know that they too point back to the... wait for it... official EU press releases and documents. Misquoted; partially presented; at times not pointing to the complete picture; poorly referenced; lacking context; and padded with leading language; but they were there for those who could bother to more than copy and paste snippets. Hence why I linked more information and complete documents pertinent to the discussion and my points, going against your fantasy. But why believe me -- even the good ol' Metro managed to balance its introduction with something more than vague blogosphere noise.

From your first article:
However, Professor Iain Begg, from the European Institute at the London School of Economics, said the accounting processes may not be too lax, but too tight.

‘The Court of Auditors’ report is an annual ritual in which EU spending is routinely found to have shortcomings,’ he said. ‘One of the reasons is that the standard of accountability is very tough, much more so than in individual countries, including the UK.

‘This, rather than the “culture of the EU”, is the principal explanation. In practice, much EU spending is so tightly controlled that it creates onerous burdens for recipients. Most of the problems tend to be the fault of the member states, which implement EU policies, rather than Brussels as such. The logical solution is to demand that those same member states are much more stringent in their procedures.

‘The UK is not exempt, even if the problems are typically worse in countries like Italy where weak or corrupt public administration compounds the problem.’

Aidas Palubinskas, from the European Court of Auditors, said it is independent and described the error rate as ‘relatively stable from year to year’. He said the errors highlighted in its report were ‘examples of inefficiency, but not necessarily of waste’.

Don’t tell me you would actually argue for having laxer standards? Why should we leave an organisation that sets a standard above that of its members, and holds them accountable in public when shortcomings are identified?

Put as a more local analogy: Would identifiable inefficiencies at Whitehall, re regional funding allocation and distribution, be a sufficient reason for Scotland to leave the Union? Likewise, should Whitehall ignore standards it sets for the UK if Scotland finds the burden of keeping up too much work?

Here’s the press release they were slanting, in full anyway: http://www.europarl.europa.eu/sides...ence=20131105STO23802&secondRef=0&language=EN

Calling for further action, as you’d expect. So what happened in the end? We can find out from the most recent National Audit Office report re Financial Management of the EU; non-EU enough for you?

Audit results

• The ECA concluded that the 2014 EU accounts were true and fair. They have been true and fair since 2007.

• The ECA reached an adverse opinion on the regularity and legality of EU payments. The estimated level of error for 2014 was 4.4%, above the ECA’s materiality threshold of 2%. Errors relating to payments in 2014 mean that this threshold has now been breached for the last 21 years. The ECA reported that revenue in 2014 was legal and regular.

• The ECA’s estimated level of error represents money that was not used, or administered, in accordance with EU regulations and national rules. In 2014, the principal sources of errors included ineligible costs included in cost claims, serious errors in public procurement, and incorrect declarations of area by farmers. The ECA’s estimated level of error is not an estimate of fraud.

So that’s where the Brexit bugbear was all along: the self-imposed regulatory target that’s well above the member states average! Hardly ‘not cleared for 19 years’. Even so, the ECA, verified by NAO, recorded an improvement of bringing the error rate down by a quarter in the reporting period, and the EU is converging to the mutually agreed, demanding target, with more reforms on the way! Cutting red tape as they go, urged on by the UK no less!

Not perfect, as I said, but getting there. Considering the return on trade we get back from the EU is several orders of magnitude of our contribution, and indeed is higher than the entire EU budget; I think we’ve got a good deal; a deal which fully covers its costs; and which, with sound policy and our active involvement, can only improve. It's also worth repeating that the organisation itself, when the mishaps by member states are excluded, has excellent accounts; which is why the tabloids and Brexiters do not attack them directly at institutional level, switching to the sovereignty argument instead to dodge the issue and the hypocrisy in their economic rectitude line.

Action to address errors

• The UK Committee of Public Accounts recommended in 2005 and 2009 that EU rules should be simplified to reduce errors.

• The ECA has recommended improvements in control systems at member state and EU levels, and further simplification of the rules, to reduce errors and enhance the results achieved from EU spending.

• In 2014 the European Commission (the Commission) and member states took corrective action to reduce the occurrence of errors by applying corrective measures in cases of irregular expenditure. If such corrections had not been applied, the ECA’s overall estimated level of error would have been 5.5% rather than 4.4%.

• The Commission has an action plan to pursue simplification, increase accountability and improve flexibility, as well as focus on results achieved from EU spending.

• A mid-term review of the current MFF is scheduled for the end of 2016. This will enable EU institutions to reassess priorities for the remaining years of the current MFF

Summary: https://www.nao.org.uk/wp-content/u...for-the-Committee-of-Public-Accounts-Summ.pdf

In full: https://www.nao.org.uk/report/finan...riefing-for-the-committee-of-public-accounts/

And in case you’re still only skimming, do note that the EU is holding on to 60bn euros in commitments, which is the normal practice when the projects requesting funds have queries re their compliance raised; which is yet another example of the sort of reform that the cases in 07/08 demanded, and the tightening in standards that occured.

The EU: Accountable. Listening. Working. Tough standards and all. Unlike your Brexit pipe dream!

You really are laughable, Mulder.
 
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