Good post.I do believe AJs lack of confidence in himself at the moment is what causes the fight to be closer than it actually is. A fully confident AJ and he makes like work of Wilder.
I feel some of you either have very short memories or haven't actually watched any of Wilder's fights beyond the KO. He consistently has issues with fighters less skilled than AJ and often gets caught with shots. While it's very true Wilder will be one of the biggest punchers he's faced (there's a debate around that. Do people forget what happened after Klit landed that perfect shot on him) it's also true that AJ will be the biggest puncher Wilder has faced.
If a fighter like Molina is able to give Wilder issues before Wilder is able to land on him why do people find it so hard to conceive that AJ wouldn't be able to land?
Make no mistake. I am an AJ fan so there is bias in my posts but I'm also being objective. Of course, Wilder has the power and ability to land his fight ending shot on AJ but I feel like people are forgetting AJ will also be throwing punches back and his counters are very effective.
Wilder's KO's almost nearly come against the run of play. The way some are acting is as if Wilder is some spectre in the ring who doesn't get hit and just has to touch people. He stops most of his opponents around rounds 6-8. He doesn't just walk into the ring, dodge every punch then land his hammer.
My feelings are: If AJ can get up from a punch like that from Wladamir who's to say he can't get up from a shot like that against Wilder and if someone like Fury can put Wilder down why would you think AJ also can't put him down if he lands clean?
Then when you take in activity into consideration. Wilder is 38 and will have fought 1 round in 2 years.
This fight is not a foregone conclusion. If anything having a less confident AJ makes it more interesting in my eyes. Though I still wish it happened a few years ago but that's boxing for you!
Yep, he'll need to shake that hesitancy he currently has. It must be difficult. Fans want the AJ that was wreckless and walking forwards but after that heavy drop for Wladmir you can see he opted for a safety first style. It's not as exciting but I'm liking the improvements. He shown great footwork and his head is now moving off centre much more naturally. We're not getting that version of AJ again. He's more circumspect. It's not me taking the punches he is taking so of course as a fan I want to see him a bit more aggressive but it looks like he wants longevity to his career. He learnt the worst parts (for a fan, not for himself) from Wladamir's approach
I'd say the period where the Klitschko bothers dominated the top was the worst period of heavyweight boxing that I have witnessed. The issue is one of the heavyweight champions seems allergic to fighting.
The other divisions are great at the moment
We can all be guilty of having short term memories. I do wonder if AJ reflects on the first Ruiz fight where he was on top, got careless and got buzzed but continued to try and trade with his opponent before he had recovered. A better defensive boxer would perhaps been able to change strategy in the fight and not take the loss. Ruiz 2 was completely low risk and get the belts back and since then we've seen AJ schooled by Usyk twice, albeit slightly less so in the second fight. AJ probably feels he is becoming a more rounded fighter. One that is able to have a plan B.
Wilder has no plan B beyond the first round of a fight when in Fury 3 he actually boxed quite well for 3 minutes.
You raise good points about Wilder's age and activity levels. He's gassed badly in a lot of fights where he didn't get the quick KO and it's too late for him to change his style. For me its a 50:50 fight. Fury had the mass to tie up Wilder and wear him down. Wilders punches seem to travel a long way so fighting inside is a smart strategy but one that AJ will not employ. Key for AJ is - can he avoid a bomb for long enough for Wilder to exhaust himself and pick him apart. That's clearly what he's working on but I still think his lack of lateral movement makes him an easy target. Whatever, it will be exciting.
The Saudi money has ruined the Heavyweight division at world level but it could be awesome at the UK domestic / 2nd tier level. There are a lot of up and coming fighters who could easily populate a tournament like the super 6.