Poll: The Official OcUK EU Referendum Exit poll (and results discussion thread)

[chief barker]

The negativity is strong everywhere.

How did the majority lose that spirit?

 

[[TW]Fox]

I work in capital markets, you either have no idea what you're talking about or are just trolling.

Here's one source I found in about 3 seconds of googling. Its title gives a bit of a clue, "Financial markets position themselves for Remain victory"

That doesn't mean there was no chance of a Brexit in the price! If course the price reflected the chance of Brexit just like the current USD price reflects the chance of a Fed interest rate rise.

 

[Jono8]

I work in capital markets, you either have no idea what you're talking about or are just trolling.

Here's one source I found in about 3 seconds of googling. Its title gives a bit of a clue, "Financial markets position themselves for Remain victory"

 

[Nasher]

Until we run out of fish form over fishing, which was a large part of the quota system in the first place.

The quotas at the moment are to allow other nations a share of the fish stock in our waters. A quota will be kept (it has to be to prevent over-fishing), but UK fishing boats will get 100% of it in future hopefully as they will be the only ones allowed to fish in UK waters. That will be a massive boost.

 

[Buckster]

Well if we get new party leaders and one then stands in a pre article 50 GE on a stay in the EU platform things would be... interesting, or just chaos, or both.

that is exactly how I see it may pan out

 

[Amp34]

Don't listen to Bob Geldof mate. We will have our own laws to protect the quantities.

https://www.opendemocracy.net/can-e...s-policy-has-helped-not-harmed-uk-fisheries-0

As this industry lobbying is taking place, the Council of Ministers (formed by the fisheries Ministers from EU member states) enters closed-door negotiations each year with scientific advice on recommended fishing limits in hand but leave the negotiations with quotas often set above advice – by an average of 20% over the last 15 years. The UK is actually one on the parties walking away from negotiations with the most quota set above advice (ranking second out of fifteen member states).

And as for the "stealing our fish"

You may have read that foreign countries are in our waters and catching all the British fish. While the whole concept of “British fish” is nonsensical to begin with, it’s worth exploring how quota is allocated between countries in the EU.

The allocation of quota between EU member states is largely determined by historic catch shares - the “relative stability” - of member states over a reference period (1973-78) just before the CFP was brought into force. Under this method, countries fishing in each other’s waters during the reference period continue to have the right to do so. sing a reference period is at least as reasonable as any alternative method of determining national shares and is also applied when setting quotas with countries outside of the EU.

In addition to this, the proposal to ban foreign vessels as some have advocated is likely to be incompatible with international law as many fishing rights stretch as far back as the Middle Ages. Calls for such a ban also don’t acknowledge that British boats also operate in other nations’ waters regularly to fish, sell at foreign ports and undergo vessel repairs. The UK fishing industry itself opposes such a ban.

So with many things relating to all this we may find voting out actually does little.

 

[scorza]

Until we run out of fish form over fishing, which was a large part of the quota system in the first place.

The problem isn't with the small-scale British trawler fleet, it's with large, industrial European fleets. Just look at the devastating effect EU fishing is having in African waters http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-25660385

 

[Amp34]

I don't think it will be long until we sort out a trade deal with BMW and Germany generally. Probably before the year is out, if our politicians have lifted their jaw off the floor by then.

I thought you guys were saying one reason we should be leaving the EU is because we can't negotiate our own trade deals with other nations.

So why will Germany be able to negotiate with us...?

One of your statements severly contradicts the other.

 

[StriderX]

I thought you guys were saying one reason we should be leaving the EU is because we can't negotiate our own trade deals with other nations.

So why will Germany be able to negotiate with us...?

One of your statements severly contradicts the other.

Special partnership deals.

 

[Caged]

I found this to be a good read:

http://www.perc.org.uk/project_posts/thoughts-on-the-sociology-of-brexit/

 

[Amp34]

Canada isn't part of the EU.

If you want to read further into this subject I would suggest looking into the laws the EU have applied to the UK in the past 40 years or so.

That is control.

I moved here less than a year ago... from the UK...

 

[[TW]Fox]

I thought you guys were saying one reason we should be leaving the EU is because we can't negotiate our own trade deals with other nations.

So why will Germany be able to negotiate with us...?

One of your statements severly contradicts the other.

It's OK he says we can negotiate deals with the car manufacturers directly

 

[Mulder]

That doesn't mean there was no chance of a Brexit in the price! If course the price reflected the chance of Brexit just like the current USD price reflects the chance of a Fed interest rate rise.

That doesn't mean people all have the same expectation of when a Fed rate rise will happen....the combination of all market participant expectations gives you the current price.

"Priced in" means the price reflects what people think will happen. People thought remain was going to win, hence the 80% or so probability the bookies were giving, and hence the rallies in cable. To say Brexit was priced in suggests markets on the whole thought Brexit would win, which isn't right.

 

[Darujhistan]

Agree. Once the remains face up , realise we're coming out and stop panicking and wetting themselves. Things will recover no problem.

More doom and gloom affects the market. Get on board and let's make the most of it.

This.

 

[fornowagain]

 

[Jono8]

That doesn't mean people all have the same expectation of when a Fed rate rise will happen....the combination of all market participant expectations gives you the current price.

"Priced in" means the price reflects what people think will happen. People thought remain was going to win, hence the 80% or so probability the bookies were giving, and hence the rallies in cable. To say Brexit was priced in suggests markets on the whole thought Brexit would win, which isn't right.

Stop talking twaddle. The Currency exchanges have been up and down based on how the polls and eu referendum news has been going for months. When the chances of remain have gone up the markets have gone up, when the chances of brexit grew the markets went down.

Why did you think it shot up the day before when everyone was certain remain were going to win?

 

[Jono8]

It's OK he says we can negotiate deals with the car manufacturers directly

This thread makes me sad

 

[Judgeneo]

Amazing.

Go on then, tell me why I'm so hopelessly wrong to think that the EU will not choose to unilaterally erect trade barriers with the UK.

Half the EU is extremely economically fragile and cannot afford any more shocks.

EU stocks were hit just as hard, or harder, than UK stocks

We have a trade deficit with the EU as a whole.

The majority of our EU trade is with three EU nations: Ireland, the Netherlands, Germany and France. All four have no desire in the slightest to erect trade barriers.

This is reason enough for a free trade deal between the EU and the UK.



It doesn't have to happen immediately, it doesn't even have to happen within the 2 year article 50 period.

My prefered option is to join the EEA, and then set a 4-5 year timeline for leaving it from there. Norway may well join us in doing so.

The political consequences of brexit on the continent have only just begun. Front Nationale just got a major boost, as did all other eurosceptic parties. Elections are coming soon. Frexit, Nexit, Dexit, and Irexit are on the cards, and could happen in the 4-5 year time period I describe.

A single one of these would put the UK in a far stronger negotiating position, regardless of the path of exit they choose.

 

[Akagi]

Nealry 1.9 million sigs on that petition now. Has gone up 1.3 million in under 12 hours,

 

[Nate--IRL--]

The political consequences of brexit on the continent have only just begun. Front Nationale just got a major boost, as did all other eurosceptic parties. Elections are coming soon. Frexit, Nexit, Dexit, and Irexit are on the cards, and could happen in the 4-5 year time period I describe.
.

Ehh not a chance Ireland will follow.

Nate