Poll: The Official OcUK EU Referendum Exit poll (and results discussion thread)

How did you vote in the EU Referendum?

  • Remain a member of the European Union

    Votes: 861 53.0%
  • Leave the European Union

    Votes: 763 47.0%

  • Total voters
    1,624
Status
Not open for further replies.
Stop talking twaddle. The Currency exchanges have been up and down based on how the polls and eu referendum news has been going for months. When the chances of remain have gone up the markets have gone up, when the chances of brexit grew the markets went down.

Why did you think it shot up the day before when everyone was certain remain were going to win?

It means the expected probability of Brexit was reflected in the price. That's why it surged when the initial remain expectations came in, until then there was a reasonable probability of Brexit reflected in the markets.

If there wasn't there would have been nothing to rally for.
 
Can some one enlighten me. I know it was touched on earlier and numerous news websites were linked showing demographics especially regarding age/ education level and how they voted.

How on earth do they get this data? I saw one that was polled on ~1600 people but that is hardly a sample size to give you a decent representative view.

The voting, as I understand it, is completely anonymous. So why are news outlets using this stuff like it's gospel?
 
[TW]Fox;29689443 said:
It means the expected probability of Brexit was reflected in the price. That's why it surged when the initial remain expectations came in, until then there was a reasonable probability of Brexit reflected in the markets.

If there wasn't there would have been nothing to rally for.

I know :confused:

or were you just answering for his benefit? :p
 
Can some one enlighten me. I know it was touched on earlier and numerous news websites were linked showing demographics especially regarding age/ education level and how they voted.

How on earth do they get this data? I saw one that was polled on ~1600 people but that is hardly a sample size to give you a decent representative view.

The voting, as I understand it, is completely anonymous. So why are news outlets using this stuff like it's gospel?

Actually, the sample size is representative. You don't really need that many after a certain amount. The power of statistics!
 
"Priced in" means the price reflects what people think will happen. People thought remain was going to win, hence the 80% or so probability the bookies were giving, and hence the rallies in cable. To say Brexit was priced in suggests markets on the whole thought Brexit would win, which isn't right.

I'm not too sure about the ftse, I don't watch it, but it does seem to be down (not just looking at the ftse 100, which are mostly large multi-nationals anyway).

But Sterling has taken a kicking, we were depressed by 10 cents or more all this year due to brexit fears and it was expected to be around 1.55 once it was all over. Now we are 1.36.

Currently the average uk worker is £300 a month worse off, in terms of purchasing power.

All I see on radio and tv news is people telling us the pound is fine, at the same level is was in February and recovering. That is deeply misleading, it slipped to 1.38 briefly in February, for just 1 or 2 days. Again due to brexit polling shocks.

I'm not hopeful but maybe it will recover to 1.45 in a few weeks, but I doubt it will get back over 1.50 for a long time. You can disagree and say you think it will recover faster but I'm fed up everyone saying the pound has already recovered in the space of a day and everything is hunky dory.
 
Can some one enlighten me. I know it was touched on earlier and numerous news websites were linked showing demographics especially regarding age/ education level and how they voted.

How on earth do they get this data? I saw one that was polled on ~1600 people but that is hardly a sample size to give you a decent representative view.

The voting, as I understand it, is completely anonymous. So why are news outlets using this stuff like it's gospel?

Because they have an agenda to try demonising the people who voted leave.
 
Stop talking twaddle. The Currency exchanges have been up and down based on how the polls and eu referendum news has been going for months. When the chances of remain have gone up the markets have gone up, when the chances of brexit grew the markets went down.

Why did you think it shot up the day before when everyone was certain remain were going to win?

[TW]Fox;29689443 said:
It means the expected probability of Brexit was reflected in the price. That's why it surged when the initial remain expectations came in, until then there was a reasonable probability of Brexit reflected in the markets.

If there wasn't there would have been nothing to rally for.

Let's cut the university textbook rubbish shall we.

Financial markets on the whole expected a remain vote.

Do you disagree with this?
 
I'm not too sure about the ftse, I don't watch it, but it does seem to be down (not just looking at the ftse 100, which are mostly large multi-nationals anyway).

But Sterling has taken a kicking, we were depressed by 10 cents or more all this year due to brexit fears and it was expected to be around 1.55 once it was all over. Now we are 1.36.

Currently the average uk worker is £300 a month worse off, in terms of purchasing power.

All I see on radio and tv news is people telling us the pound is fine, at the same level is was in February and recovering. That is deeply misleading, it slipped to 1.38 briefly in February, for just 1 or 2 days. Again due to brexit polling shocks.

It is incredibly frustrating that most people in this thread don't seem to understand this. Well i say this thread....the country.

Every time i see someone write: " yeh well it was 1.38 in February" it makes me want to scream.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.
Back
Top Bottom