The ongoing Elon Twitter saga: "insert demographic" melts down

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Soldato
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Those religious loons are passing laws making abortion murder. 26 states are expected to make abortion illegal, over half of the states, even though the majority of the country support abortion in the first trimester. These are extremists and they are in charge at the state level but Republicans have only moved 0.5 to the right? Something doesn't add up.

Are those state leaders representing the opinion of the majority of their state though i.e are they doing their job, by only caring about what the people in their state want?

If they are then what they are doing is right for the people who vote for them so to call them "extremists" just because they're following what the majority of their state wants is You putting Your views over the people in Their state who will be directly effected.

The US isn't a Democracy, so the individual states are free to make laws the people who live there want and if, as Roe vs Wade, the federal Gov tells people "even if the majority off your state opposes this law, tough!" it's understandable that once the control drops back to those individual states, people will be happy to pass a law the majority want.
 
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Commissario
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Are those state leaders representing the opinion of the majority of their state though i.e are they doing their job, by only caring about what the people in their state want?

If they are then what they are doing is right for the people who vote for them so to call them "extremists" just because they're following what the majority of their state wants is You putting Your views over the people in Their state who will be directly effected.

The US isn't a Democracy, so the individual states are free to make laws the people who live there want and if, as Roe vs Wade, the federal Gov tells people "even if the majority off your state opposes this law, tough!" it's understandable that once the control drops back to those individual states, people will be happy to pass a law the majority want.
They're not representing the majority, they're pandering to a small but very loud, idiotic part of their voter base (and the very wealthy donors) that likes their women beholden to the menfolk, and pregnant or dead, or would if you take the leaked opinion from one of the unqualified Judges Mitch and Trump pushed through, remove any of the rights that were given after the constitution was written (except the second, can't touch that*), as they were not mentioned in the original document.

They're putting in place laws that would make it illegal for a woman to have an abortion when the only other possible outcome is that both the mother and the clump of cells dies (they're putting in place laws that ban abortions for ectopic pregnancies, a medical situation where you either remove the featus, or the mother dies in agony and at least ones of these nuts has gone on the record to say it's better that the mother dies than the procedure takes place.).
They're putting in laws that would class it an abortion to take the morning after pill, and trying to ban contraceptives in some cases.

These laws are going to kill a lot of women, and end up with many more in prison for miscarriages, either because they believe some poor woman who has just had one of the worst experiences of her life has deliberately done it, or done something to cause it by "not being careful enough".
The US is already basically the worst place in the western world to have a baby in terms of safe pregnancy and birth, and oddly enough the "baby comes first" states are usually the worst in the US giving death rates among pregnant woman, and their babies that are worse than some "third world" countries.

Even amongst Republican voters only about 30% want a ban on abortion, even less want a full on ban where there is no exception to save the life of the mother - which I believe takes it back way beyond what it was in the 60's, and takes it beyond what Ireland had before they finally saw sense (after a very high profile case where a woman died because none of the doctors wanted to risk the investigation that would follow, even though there was no other way to save her and they knew it).

It's like the "CRT" outrage where they're deliberately misleading the voters about what it is to get an excuse to ban any book they don't like. CRT is a very specific elective course that is taught to people in university to help understand the history of certain laws and statistics**, but they've manufactured enough of an outrage that they're using it to ban books that mention anything about slavery where the slaves were anything but happy and grateful for their position in life, and banning books about the civil rights movement in the 60's..


*And don't forget the line about a lack of "domestically available babies for Adoption" (I may have the wording slightly wrong), like the woman is litterally just a walking womb to provide nice American babies to feed the appetite for adoptable babies, which ignores the huge number of babies and children who are in the US system wanting homes but aren't pretty/healthy enough to be adopted.

**For example there is one state where the statistics from one period have to be explicitly looked at with the knowledge that the guy that ran the statistics bureau was a racist pratt and put in place policies/criteria for collecting information that has to be allowed for and understood if you're going to do any comparison with what are meant to be the same sort of stats in another state, or that same state 30 years later, other examples include understanding how certain laws were introduced specifically to target minorities, or the situation around things like the civil rights act etc. Basically CRT is literally "degree" level stuff, but instead it's being used by people that don't want their children to learn that the "war for states rights" was a war to try and ensure that states had the right to maintain slavery, and that the slaves were not in fact joyful at their lives and may not have appreciated the "nice and generous master" whipping and raping them.
 
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Caporegime
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Are those state leaders representing the opinion of the majority of their state though i.e are they doing their job, by only caring about what the people in their state want?

If they are then what they are doing is right for the people who vote for them so to call them "extremists" just because they're following what the majority of their state wants is You putting Your views over the people in Their state who will be directly effected.

Even if they actually were, it falls firmly into the Tyranny of the majority category, it's not acceptable to just do anything the majority want, there has to be limits.
 
Caporegime
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Those religious loons are passing laws making abortion murder. 26 states are expected to make abortion illegal, over half of the states, even though the majority of the country support abortion in the first trimester. These are extremists and they are in charge at the state level but Republicans have only moved 0.5 to the right? Something doesn't add up.

Are you doubting the stats re public opinion on abortion too?

I doubt 26 states will make abortion illegal.
 
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Are you doubting the stats re public opinion on abortion too?

I doubt 26 states will make abortion illegal.
According to the people that look at abortion access, that's pretty much what is going to happen.

Something like half the US states have laws ready to go (or already passed waiting for Roe vs Wade to be repealed) that will at very best massively limit access to abortion* and cut the time frame down to basically "your period is a week late, it's too late to get one", in some cases ban it completely.


*theorectically it's legal, many "Red" states make it nearly impossible for abortion providers with things like requirements that the abortion clinic has full access to a specialist ER despite the fact that the procedure is much safer than many plastic surgery operations where the state doesn't have that requirement.
 
Soldato
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Are you doubting the stats re public opinion on abortion too?

I doubt 26 states will make abortion illegal.

Apparently the breakdown is:

1. 9 states abortion is already illegal but Roe v Wade invalidates this. Nothing would need to be done to outlaw abortion if Roe v Wade is overturned.
2. 13 states have trigger laws that can quickly implement making abortion illegal.
3. 4 states have indicated they would introduce new laws.

https://www.guttmacher.org/article/...abortion-without-roe-heres-which-ones-and-why
 
Caporegime
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Apparently the breakdown is:

1. 9 states abortion is already illegal but Roe v Wade invalidates this. Nothing would need to be done to outlaw abortion if Roe v Wade is overturned.
2. 13 states have trigger laws that can quickly implement making abortion illegal.
3. 4 states have indicated they would introduce new laws.

https://www.guttmacher.org/article/...abortion-without-roe-heres-which-ones-and-why

Introducing new laws != banning abortion. The claim that 26 states will ban abortion seems to be hyperbole, some of them will severely limit it to 6 weeks but this is really muddling things if broad claims like that are made and other states that aren't doing that are thrown into the mix.

I mean look at the details, they mention Florida introducing a 15-week limit, that's in line with some European countries... that isn't banning abortion.

Ditto to Arizona, in your article above they simply have it listed as "Pre-Roe ban" but in reality a quick google indicates it's again a 15-week limit for most abortions. I've not googled the rest but that was the first non-descript one in the list.

France, Ireland, Italy all have 12-week limits for most abortions, Spain has a 14 week limit and Sweden has an 18 week limit....

Would the statement that most EU countries have banned abortions be a reasonable one? If not then why conflate US states due to implement similar limits to European nations with other far more restrictive states that have 6 week limits?

Or indeed the ones that seem to have actually gone for a near-total ban - that seems to be 3 states not 26 (unless there are some others among the non-descript entries on that list).
 
Soldato
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Russell Brand and Jordan Peterson haven't been branded alt-right. Does anyone take Brand seriously? A comic actor tuned YouTuber who loves a conspiracy theory? Peterson who does speak out, rightly on subjects like some "cancel culture" but is also a religious loon with substance abuse issues. But no one is branding him alt-right. Clearly we have different interpretation of what alt-right is. Lets not forget the right is just as good at cancelling people as the left.

As for your BBC list, I'm sure someone could come up with a similar list from the other side of the political spectrum. When the right and left are equally infuriated with the BBC they clearly aren't doing that badly.
Just a 1 second google has plenty of hits for both.

Russell Brand: https://www.google.com/search?q=Russell+brand+branded+alt-right
e.g. Forbes - "This led to a series of tweets declaring Brand to have been poisoned by the alt-right, and accusing him of catering to a certain crowd"

Jordan Peterson: https://www.google.com/search?q=jordan+peterson+branded+alt-right
e.g. Guardian - "He is also adored by figures on the so-called alt-light (basically the “alt-right...)" with a title of "How dangerous is Jordan B Peterson, the rightwing professor who 'hit a hornets' nest'?"

As for the BBC, why not come up with a list? It's easy to say someone could, but as the other side of the 'far left' would be the 'far right' then I'd be amazed to find any institution openly breaking the law because (and thank god) we have laws that prevent far right wing behaviours.
 
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Introducing new laws != banning abortion. The claim that 26 states will ban abortion seems to be hyperbole, some of them will severely limit it to 6 weeks but this is really muddling things if broad claims like that are made and other states that aren't doing that are thrown into the mix.
A 6 week limit is a ban in reality, menstrual cycles are often variable to some degree (and can be thrown off by various things) so it is well within the "oh it's running late but not unusually so" for a fair number of women.

Most women don't know they're pregnant until at least that point, and then have to try and get an appointment to get one which can take several weeks.
Which means that only way to avoid getting pregnant doing that is to be on the pill (not every can be, and things like antibiotics stop it working), ensure your partner always wears a condom, and take a morning after pill the next day, and good luck with the last two options especially as the same people that are pushing for a ban on abortion are also often going after easy access to contraception and in a number of states are looking at banning the morning after pill as that's an abortion by their definition.
 
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Back on the twitter topic I wonder if Elon left any leeway for re-pricing as it's starting to look like he bought right at the top of tech boom.

If Tesla shares contine to slide I'm not sure he will have the available collateral to make the deal.

Maybe the lefties at Twitter will be spared yet
 
Caporegime
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A 6 week limit is a ban in reality, menstrual cycles are often variable to some degree (and can be thrown off by various things) so it is well within the "oh it's running late but not unusually so" for a fair number of women.
[...]

I mean that's kind of obvious, I'm not sure why you're even quoting me to tell me this.

The point was that the claim that 26 states will be banning abortion is clearly flawed given that 15-week limits are in line with what plenty of European states have already - would you say that most EU states have banned abortions?
 
Soldato
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Introducing new laws != banning abortion. The claim that 26 states will ban abortion seems to be hyperbole, some of them will severely limit it to 6 weeks but this is really muddling things if broad claims like that are made and other states that aren't doing that are thrown into the mix.

I mean look at the details, they mention Florida introducing a 15-week limit, that's in line with some European countries... that isn't banning abortion.

Ditto to Arizona, in your article above they simply have it listed as "Pre-Roe ban" but in reality a quick google indicates it's again a 15-week limit for most abortions. I've not googled the rest but that was the first non-descript one in the list.

France, Ireland, Italy all have 12-week limits for most abortions, Spain has a 14 week limit and Sweden has an 18 week limit....

Would the statement that most EU countries have banned abortions be a reasonable one? If not then why conflate US states due to implement similar limits to European nations with other far more restrictive states that have 6 week limits?

Or indeed the ones that seem to have actually gone for a near-total ban - that seems to be 3 states not 26 (unless there are some others among the non-descript entries on that list).

First off, you need to disassociate current proposals for 15 week bans from future laws, particularly as the 15 week laws are based on what they think is allowable under current legal frameworks. On to the specifics you mention.

Arizona - you're looking at the wrong law. The 15 week ban is the current proposal. The EXISTING law (enacted 1901) in place is a near total ban on abortions with jail time (both for the person performing the abortion along with the woman it is being performed on):

https://www.prochoiceamerica.org/state-law/arizona/

The ban provides that any person who supplies to a woman any substance or employs other means with the intent to induce an abortion, unless necessary to preserve the woman’s life, will be imprisoned for two to five years. A woman who submits to the use of any means with the intent to cause an abortion, unless necessary to preserve her life, will be imprisoned for one to five years. Any person who advertises abortion services is guilty of a misdemeanor. Ariz. Rev. Stat. Ann. §§ 13-3603 (Enacted 1901; Last Renumbered 1977), 13-3604 (Enacted 1901; Last Renumbered 1977), 13-3605 (Enacted 1901; Last Renumbered 1977).

Courts have held that these provisions are unconstitutional. Nelson v. Planned Parenthood Ctr. of Tucson, Inc., 505 P.2d 580 (Ariz. Ct. App. 1973), review denied, No. 11160-PR (Ariz. Mar. 21, 1973); State v. New Times, Inc., 511 P.2d 196 (Ariz. Ct. App. 1973).

Florida - the article cites the introduction of the 15 week law (which is in line with other states' efforts to limit abortion as far as they are legally able) as evidence that it is likely they will go further if able. That appears a reasonable, and caveated, inclusion on their list.
 
Caporegime
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First off, you need to disassociate current proposals for 15 week bans from future laws, particularly as the 15 week laws are based on what they think is allowable under current legal frameworks. On to the specifics you mention.

Arizona - you're looking at the wrong law. The 15 week ban is the current proposal. The EXISTING law (enacted 1901) in place is a near total ban on abortions with jail time (both for the person performing the abortion along with the woman it is being performed on):

https://www.prochoiceamerica.org/state-law/arizona/


Florida - the article cites the introduction of the 15 week law (which is in line with other states' efforts to limit abortion as far as they are legally able) as evidence that it is likely they will go further if able. That appears a reasonable, and caveated, inclusion on their list.

Seems like a fair bit of uncertainty tbh... and no I don't think this claim is correct: "particularly as the 15 week laws are based on what they think is allowable under current legal frameworks", quite the opposite rather the 15-week laws are the sort of thing that would otherwise have been ruled unlawful because of Roe v. Wade but which now, with the current composition of the court, might have a chance.

Arizona's Republican Governor Doug Ducey on Wednesday signed a bill banning abortions after 15 weeks of pregnancy, a restriction the U.S. Supreme Court could soon declare to be constitutional when it finishes reviewing a similar Mississippi ban this spring.[...]

Republican-led states are rapidly passing anti-abortion legislation this year with the anticipation that the Supreme Court will reinstate Mississippi's 15-week abortion ban. The court, with a 6-3 conservative majority, expressed openness to Mississippi's case during oral arguments in December.

The court's decision could overturn the 1973 Roe v. Wade precedent
, which established the right to abortion before the fetus is viable, and it could pave the way for states to successfully pass stricter bans.

Florida and Kentucky legislatures also recently passed 15-week bans that now await approval from those states' governors.

That of course is what we've seen in the leak, Mississippi might well have succeeded in arguing for its 15-week limit on abortions.

Also, the claim that 26 states will *ban* abortion is hyperbole. Even those restricting it to 6 weeks still end up allowing for plenty, the majority of abortions these days are medical abortions (which are carried out <9 weeks). Assuming they don't end up adjusting that limit upwards.

The majority of people in the US support abortion in the first trimester so I'm not sure it's a reasonable assumption that the legislatures of all those states with pre-Roe legislation on the books will simply do nothing in reaction to Roe v. Wade being overturned (that's assuming it is overturned in full, which isn't certain either), I suspect in some of those states with pre-Roe bans opinion might have shifted in the past 50 years and you might well find that legislators act to at least permit some abortions within the first trimester. Other states clearly have anomalies/conflicts with more recent existing or due to be implemented laws.

Arizona hasn't commented on how it proposes to tackle the anomaly of a newly proposed 15 week limit with old statute still on its books but I don't think you can assume that the result would for sure be that they just scrap their newly introduced limit too and default to a total ban... I mean it's possible but is that a realistic assumption for how each legislature will handle this in every single one of those states given public opinion?
 
Soldato
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Seems like a fair bit of uncertainty tbh... and no I don't think this claim is correct: "particularly as the 15 week laws are based on what they think is allowable under current legal frameworks", quite the opposite rather the 15-week laws are the sort of thing that would otherwise have been ruled unlawful because of Roe v. Wade but which now, with the current composition of the court, might have a chance.



That of course is what we've seen in the leak, Mississippi might well have succeeded in arguing for its 15-week limit on abortions.

Also, the claim that 26 states will *ban* abortion is hyperbole. Even those restricting it to 6 weeks still end up allowing for plenty, the majority of abortions these days are medical abortions (which are carried out <9 weeks). Assuming they don't end up adjusting that limit upwards.

The majority of people in the US support abortion in the first trimester so I'm not sure it's a reasonable assumption that the legislatures of all those states with pre-Roe legislation on the books will simply do nothing in reaction to Roe v. Wade being overturned (that's assuming it is overturned in full, which isn't certain either), I suspect in some of those states with pre-Roe bans opinion might have shifted in the past 50 years and you might well find that legislators act to at least permit some abortions within the first trimester. Other states clearly have anomalies/conflicts with more recent existing or due to be implemented laws.

Arizona hasn't commented on how it proposes to tackle the anomaly of a newly proposed 15 week limit with old statute still on its books but I don't think you can assume that the result would for sure be that they just scrap their newly introduced limit too and default to a total ban... I mean it's possible but is that a realistic assumption for how each legislature will handle this in every single one of those states given public opinion?

Back to Arizona as our example case.

Senate Bill 1164:

https://www.azleg.gov/legtext/55leg/2R/bills/sb1164p.pdf
2. Construction This act does not: 1. Create or recognize a right to abortion or alter generally accepted medical standards. The Legislature does not intend this act to make lawful an abortion that is currently unlawful. 2. Repeal, by implication or otherwise, section 13-3603, Arizona 19 Revised Statutes, or any other applicable state law regulating or restricting abortion.

Section 13-3603 is the aforementioned ban on abortions.

https://www.azleg.gov/ars/13/03603.htm
13-3603. Definition; punishment

A person who provides, supplies or administers to a pregnant woman, or procures such woman to take any medicine, drugs or substance, or uses or employs any instrument or other means whatever, with intent thereby to procure the miscarriage of such woman, unless it is necessary to save her life, shall be punished by imprisonment in the state prison for not less than two years nor more than five years.

I think that's about as legally clear as it gets how Arizona proposes the laws will interact. The new 15 week ban in no way alters pre-Roe law.
 
Soldato
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Just a 1 second google has plenty of hits for both.

Russell Brand: https://www.google.com/search?q=Russell+brand+branded+alt-right
e.g. Forbes - "This led to a series of tweets declaring Brand to have been poisoned by the alt-right, and accusing him of catering to a certain crowd"

Jordan Peterson: https://www.google.com/search?q=jordan+peterson+branded+alt-right
e.g. Guardian - "He is also adored by figures on the so-called alt-light (basically the “alt-right...)" with a title of "How dangerous is Jordan B Peterson, the rightwing professor who 'hit a hornets' nest'?"

As for the BBC, why not come up with a list? It's easy to say someone could, but as the other side of the 'far left' would be the 'far right' then I'd be amazed to find any institution openly breaking the law because (and thank god) we have laws that prevent far right wing behaviours.

Those quotes are saying they have fans on the alt right. Jordan Peterson is right of centre, you can be a supporter of free speech and right wing. That isn't alt-right.

This is alt-right
 
Caporegime
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I think that's about as legally clear as it gets how Arizona proposes the laws will interact. The new 15 week ban in no way alters pre-Roe law.

No, it isn't clear at all, again the point I made before is you'd have to assume that state legislatures take no action to resolve the anomaly here of legally allowing for a 15-week limit and exempting mothers while also having on the books a law that could make doctors criminally liable.

It might result in that but that isn't clear, especially when state legislators and the governors have made comments about holding sessions on this... ergo the assumption of do nothing seems suspect:

On the other side of the aisle, state Rep. Shawnna Bolick, R-Phoenix, noted that reversing national policy will put the question back in the hands of state officials. In a released statement, she said she hopes cases like Dobbs "will advance the public debate on how we further empower young women and promote life."

She advocates for "commonsense" laws like Mississippi's that limit abortions to 15 weeks or earlier.

Responding to reporters' questions Wednesday, Ducey indicated that the Roe v. Wade ruling was a "mistake" that should be corrected. He couldn't yet specify how the reversal would affect Arizona.

“What the law would look like, depending on the court's actions, would have course depend on the Legislature,”
Ducey said. “And I'd look forward to leading that session.”

So the conclusion of Roe v. Wade being overturned is that the legislature would do nothing and allow a total ban to slip into place as the status quo seems flawed. They're clearly going to take the opportunity to legislate on this.

Firstly the democrats would clearly be opposed to a total ban and secondly, you've got republicans like the representative quoted above arguing for a 15-week limit. The house is currently 31 Republicans and 29 Democrats, the state senate is 16 Republicans and 14 Democrats...
 
Soldato
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Whilst Roe vs Wade mains the law those trigger laws have been cheap consequence free red meat for the more conservative element of the Republican base. Should Roe vs Wade be overturned they come into force and women will begin to be affected. Most things I've read have suggested a broad consensus for abortion in the US if not mirrored amongst it's representatives. Those women will vote for their needs and Republican representatives will start to lose support in state and national legislatures as a consequence. It is not very satisfactory but I suspect many of those trigger laws will be watered down or removed over the coming years as the electoral calculus moves away from hard line positions. The Republicans would be wise to be ahead of that curve rather than behind it.
 
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