I've gone for the lease.
£435 a month net after salary sacrifice, £455 including expected charging costs, compared to running my current old car at £400 per month. 4 year lease. So £55 more and I drive a brand new car, delivered to me, with all insurance maintenance tyres breakdown, road tax etc all included.
I recognise the loan would have been cheaper in the long term as I'd have owned the car. But I would have to have a £20-23k loan for it, over 5 years, which is a substantial loan. And then source the car as the ones locally seemed inflated in price (more like £25-26k instead of £20-23k). I'd own the car and little dings and knocks wouldn't matter so much, but the residual value would be uncertain.
So that's it, decision made and order placed.
Only hope now is its not the 20 week lead time estimated by the lease company. I spoke to them on the phone and they seemed to think it would be quicker, but that could be lies.
Thanks for all the help.