Thunderstorms 2025

Posted the video from Met here:

It's too hot :(

Just had a message from a relative that they've put their heating on. Been snow on the hills the last couple of days up here.
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Looks like some thunder brewing up over the next day or so.
 
WAA brings in a Theta-W plume during the evening on Friday. With the ejection leaning towards the SE leading to potential severe thunderstorm development. An update tomorrow morning is likely to include a severe risk and there may be upgrades in areas if modelling holds.

Decent moisture advection should continue and bring in Theta-E into typical plume event numbers allowing for strong energy and therefore 1000+ J/KG of CAPE pretty widespread. With 2000+ J/KG in spots. Combining with a large upper-level jet feeding the direct plume and decent shearing all the way down to the surface though storms are likely to be elevated. This should form an MCS or organised storms of some form. Especially with the forcing available. Leading to pretty good organised frequent lightning potential.

Dry air should train in with this system favouring severe wind gusts with strong DCAPE and downdraft winds. Maybe also the potential of a gust front type situation. The dry air also favours hail and combined with energy allows for 1+ inch sized hail, maybe even beyond 1.5 inches in pretty high parameter space. Also the outside chance of a Supercell though the directional shear favours squalls as it's more towards speed shear than well uniform for deep-layer shear.

An MCS looks the most likely event forming over northern France or in the channel and moving across the south and south east pushing into east Anglia but there should also be developments behind it through the Midlands and south and then also organisation is possible given modelling in the west. With a secondary spot of advection providing slightly more moisture than surrounding areas favouring some 600-800 J/KG of CAPE overnight and some decently lightning favourable scenes overnight on Friday. Surrounding areas have around 400 J/KG but often these events lead to complex interactions from tall storms influencing the area around them and localised higher CAPE than is predicted. Therefore we've gone with slight risk due to the risk of these storms behind the main MCS expected.
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I hear booms and very distant pink flashing from the south east... That's one hell of an angry storm!

Kentish folk look to the south :D
 
The French storm is starting to cross The English Channel...

Real Time Lightning Map

See lightning strikes in real time across the planet. Free access to maps of former thunderstorms. By Blitzortung.org and contributors.
www.lightningmaps.org www.lightningmaps.org

I love a good storm every now and again, but not if it's in the middle of the night!

Good luck with the 5cm hailstones, if they reach south east England.
 
UTmaniac said:
The French storm is starting to cross The English Channel...

Real Time Lightning Map

See lightning strikes in real time across the planet. Free access to maps of former thunderstorms. By Blitzortung.org and contributors.
www.lightningmaps.org www.lightningmaps.org

I love a good storm every now and again, but not if it's in the middle of the night!

Good luck with the 5cm hailstones, if they reach south east England.
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Can see it from here! It's looking rather menacing outside right about now..

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Oh I love a good thunderstorm, we are in a static caravan tonight as well.

Had a good thunderstorm whilst in a tent before, that's an experience.
 
BUDFORCE said:
Oh I love a good thunderstorm, we are in a static caravan tonight as well.

Had a good thunderstorm whilst in a tent before, that's an experience.
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When I was a wee lad back in saffrica we used to go camping at a place called Wagendrift. Every night at 8pm the heavens would open and put on one of the angriest displays of thunder and lightning I've ever seen. Every night, without fail. It was quite something to be in our tents when it was happening, when the lightning hit the whole campsite used to flash up like daylight for a millisecond then go dark. Absolutely spectacular, I'd go back for that alone if the campsite still existed.
 
If you like storms, monsoon season in Tucson AZ is insane.
Family lives there so had the pleasure a few times, the storms are intense

 
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