Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Trig · 17 Aug 2022 at 23:05

delta0 said:
The ultimate bear has made his call https://uk.finance.yahoo.com/news/crypto-michael-burry-tech-stocks-crash-121259074.html

TBF it’s pretty clear the winter is going to be a ****show. Hopefully gives us lots of buying opportunity next year.

Scion Asset Management Portfolio | Michael Burry 13F Holdings & Trades

Heatmaps of the top 13f holdings and a list of the largest trades made by Scion Asset Management, the hedge fund managed by Michael Burry.

hedgefollow.com

He's made a few bad calls in recent years but surely that's one hell of a move?

413x · 17 Aug 2022 at 23:15

It may be time to exit completely. I do feel the markets are just starting to wake up to the impending issues average people are facing

silversurfer · 17 Aug 2022 at 23:15

Exit means liking cash, UK has a trade deficit so not optimistic

AMC is how close to CINE situ

Burry wouldnt be the ultimate bear as I dont think his focus is macro economics

Trig · 17 Aug 2022 at 23:32

413x said:
It may be time to exit completely. I do feel the markets are just starting to wake up to the impending issues average people are facing

I cashed out earlier in the year, since then what I was holding is down another ~20% so was the right move at the time, will see how things go before I dip back in.

mid_gen · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:05

413x said:
It may be time to exit completely. I do feel the markets are just starting to wake up to the impending issues average people are facing

Exiting completely is daft. You'd be nuts to just sit on a pile of cash inflating away.

Even if you're a die-hard bear, I'd only keep a bit of cash out as a hedge against a big downturn.

Uther · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:08

mid_gen said:
Exiting completely is daft. You'd be nuts to just sit on a pile of cash inflating away.

Even if you're a die-hard bear, I'd only keep a bit of cash out as a hedge against a big downturn.

I'll stay in my ftse global fund, but jumped out of the S & P for a while, I think that's going to pop.

mid_gen · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:12

Uther said:
I'll stay in my ftse global fund, but jumped out of the S & P for a while, I think that's going to pop.

Shifting out of growth stocks to dividend will certainly reduce the damage in the event of another big correction. I'm still mixed.

The outlook for winter is not good....the question is though, when will the markets be looking ahead to the other side, when inflation starts to get reigned in.....tough call.

200sols · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:19

The outlook for winter is not good in Europe anyway, US may be different as it doesn't face quite the same issues. But then the US market is overvalued and Europe is fair / UK is undervalued and unloved. US stocks make up the bulk of global trackers anyway so if the S&P tanks it your global trackers will go the same way.

Trig · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:41

mid_gen said:
Exiting completely is daft. You'd be nuts to just sit on a pile of cash inflating away.

I didn't sit on the cash, I paid off my credit cards and bought some new shiny stuff..

Uther · 18 Aug 2022 at 09:50

200sols said:
The outlook for winter is not good in Europe anyway, US may be different as it doesn't face quite the same issues. But then the US market is overvalued and Europe is fair / UK is undervalued and unloved. US stocks make up the bulk of global trackers anyway so if the S&P tanks it your global trackers will go the same way.

There's no good news over the next few months, it's just trying to limit the damage a bit. I don't want to exit completely but also don't want to sit there watching thousands of pounds evaporate every day.
Yes I know you shouldn't look, but it's like watching a slow motion car crash.

mid_gen · 18 Aug 2022 at 11:46

Trig said:
I didn't sit on the cash, I paid off my credit cards and bought some new shiny stuff..

Well, paying off credit cards is a no-brainer, I don't know why anyone would have money in stocks atm if they have credit card balances!

413x · 18 Aug 2022 at 12:04

I'm thinking of putting mine into mortgage.
But I don't want to yet as then it's gone. (locked away)

If things suddenly do get better (unlikely) I want to be able to jump on that. It's one of the aspects of stocks I'm better at.

Simon · 18 Aug 2022 at 12:28

mid_gen said:
Well, paying off credit cards is a no-brainer, I don't know why anyone would have money in stocks atm if they have credit card balances

To stooze?

Trig · 18 Aug 2022 at 13:24

mid_gen said:
Well, paying off credit cards is a no-brainer, I don't know why anyone would have money in stocks atm if they have credit card balances!

0% balance transfers tbh, paying off waaaaay over the minimum payment so balances would have been gone before the 0% period ended so wasn't costing me anything, as for the stocks thing, I'll drop back in again at some point...

ci_newman · 18 Aug 2022 at 14:50

413x said:
I'm thinking of putting mine into mortgage.
But I don't want to yet as then it's gone. (locked away)

If things suddenly do get better (unlikely) I want to be able to jump on that. It's one of the aspects of stocks I'm better at.

Why not put it into something like Chase with a 1.5% return or Virgin at ~ 1.8%? Presumably that's higher than your current mortgage rate? Total flexibility to return it to cash whenever you want too

413x · 18 Aug 2022 at 15:01

ci_newman said:
Why not put it into something like Chase with a 1.5% return or Virgin at ~ 1.8%? Presumably that's higher than your current mortgage rate? Total flexibility to return it to cash whenever you want too

Mortgage is 1.9.

Savings rates might be higher soon though

ci_newman · 18 Aug 2022 at 15:11

413x said:
Mortgage is 1.9.

Savings rates might be higher soon though

Virgin money savings account would be perfect for you instead of overpaying then

mid_gen · 18 Aug 2022 at 16:27

ci_newman said:
Why not put it into something like Chase with a 1.5% return or Virgin at ~ 1.8%? Presumably that's higher than your current mortgage rate? Total flexibility to return it to cash whenever you want too

1.5, 1.8%, it's still evaporating in the face of inflation.

If you're looking long term and have the risk appetite, now's the time to fill your boots to reap the rewards.

413x · 18 Aug 2022 at 16:31

mid_gen said:
1.5, 1.8%, it's still evaporating in the face of inflation.

If you're looking long term and have the risk appetite, now's the time to fill your boots to reap the rewards.

Disagree.
Most stocks are falling away.

If you can buy in x months at a lower price its surely better?
Can't see any good news on the horizon broadly.

Buying in a falling market means you're losing directly and the inflation at the same time!

silversurfer · 18 Aug 2022 at 16:38

If reducing the LTV on a mortgage a lot they can start to consider some nice deals only available to very secure debt. I imagine the cost savings from that is higher then the rate of return below inflation plus 'spare money' tends to spend itself

Somebody mentioned the FED raising to 4% by the end of its move. I didnt expect that high because so much of USA debt is shorter term, this rise immediately takes money out of their fiscal budget. UK has a quarter of its debt linked to inflation so their costs also rose with this last figure I guess.

Buying into a decline and sell into rising market, not immediately but that is a long strat I think. Not a trading one, kinda sucks to do that but people who are sure they like the company and it took years for them to decide that