Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Eddietop said:
You may be waiting a long long time...

The government owns a large chunk of Lloyds, some very angry tax payers will protest if they start dishing out dividends, rather then paying back some of the large debts it owes the government.
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But won't the government get rather a large amount of those dividends? Won't paying out dividends potentially put a better value on the share price, inturn meaning the shares owned by the govenment are worth more?
 
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NeilFawcett said:
But won't the government get rather a large amount of those dividends? Won't paying out dividends potentially put a better value on the share price, inturn meaning the shares owned by the govenment are worth more?
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Exactly, as a shareholder the government will also get dividends!

Everyone goes on about this 'government owned' banks as a bad thing. If the Banks do sort themselves out then the government could make a decent profit from the bailouts.

The Government bought effectively bought RBS shares at 50p a share to bail them out. The shares are now worth more than that.
 
What is everyone's opinion on RBS and LLOY. Still worth getting involved in them or has the boat been missed?

Having a had look at where they were trading at a year ago surely there is a hell of a lot of movement (upwards) left in them.
 
Look again at the number of shares they have issued since a year ago. digitallook will give you this info historically in graph form even but it aint pretty.

rbs is quintupled for example which I think means you can multiply the shareprice by five if you wish to compare it over time


The government could make a profit, it just might take a while. shares in ukfi may be sold prior to the election for the sake of kudos


I wouldnt buy them now and call it cheap but its question of personal judgement

waiter1265502.jpg


This is the current status of the banks in theory, a lot of free pints to be had or a nasty shock if balance should be lost


iii is the cheapest highstreet broker I know of and they'll let you buy and sell small amounts which is definitely the best thing.
September like last year could be a month of reckoning or just more of the same but either way its best to start slow if new.







Warren Buffett warns about Inflation


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Warren Buffett warns that the federal government's massive deficits are creating a strong probability for inflation , in an article published this past week in the NY Times under the title "The Greenback Effect "

By WARREN E. BUFFETT
Published: August 18, 2009
http://www.nytimes.com/2009/08/19/opinion/19buffett.html?_r=3&hp
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chipperhead said:
Can I ask you for a bit of advice regarding TDWaterhouse, I used to be with Hoodless Brennan however they have swapped me over to TDW today.
I've tried ringing but can't get through.
I bought some shares today for £1000, however the cash in my account is still showing £1000, when I click on Trading>My Orders>Closing Deals I have todays shares in there next to a button that says close deal.

My settlement period was T+3 does this mean after 3 days the £1000 will be used to purchase my shares and close the deal means to sell them?
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Yeh T+3 is your trade note so after 3 days is when the money is actually settled. You can trade in and out within your t-note period.

http://www.tdwaterhouse.co.uk/learn/glossary.cfm#t
 
Eddietop said:
You may be waiting a long long time...

The government owns a large chunk of Lloyds, some very angry tax payers will protest if they start dishing out dividends, rather then paying back some of the large debts it owes the government.
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Well it's already been tipped that LLOY will bring the dividend back in 2010. As already said the government will get a cut of this dividend also.

I fully expect a heavily reduced dividend but in the long run I see good performance from LLOY. They have one thing they didn’t have going into this – HBOS. It has cost them dearly but they still now have almost 30% of the mortgage market. HBOS was the largest mortgage lender, combined with LLOY they are now huge.

Edit: The government will wait until election time before selling at a profit and showing the tax payer how good they are.

Breeze said:
What is everyone's opinion on RBS and LLOY. Still worth getting involved in them or has the boat been missed?

Having a had look at where they were trading at a year ago surely there is a hell of a lot of movement (upwards) left in them.
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OK, as with any advice on a forum there are some rules.

* Do you own research ('DYOR')
* People who hold the shares think they're great, people without them don't. The war rages on.
* Don't invest what you can't afford to lose.
* As soon as you buy the shares they go down (fact!) :)

I personally hold a lot of both because I feel they are currently cheap and while they may not return to the price they were in 2007/8 they will almost get there over the next 5 years.

If you are looking to hold them for a while to get a small profit I believe you will. If you're looking for long term and dividends I feel these are coming also, along with a share price increase.

LLOY may have taken a battering but they managed to acquire the poison apple - HBOS. The write downs came hard and fast (faster than expected) but their mortgage market share is huge. Once they’ve got rid of the worst of HBOS that tree will bloom.

There will be downs….there’s a rights issue floating around right now even but RBS still maintains a current target of 150p on LLOY.
 
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well its not normal and there are lots of fat tails, but that's quite a broad/non specific and fairly ambiguous question
 
Vanilla said:
We don't need to know it now you do!

Tell us about these things in regards to LLOY and RBS.
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Well those three things can be *very* useful.


Asymmetry essentially means the market reacts differently to positive vs negative movements. (If people hear some bad news about RBS they move quickly, if it's positive they alter there position slightly, very much a sign of risk averse trading).

Cluster volatility is pretty straight forward too, there are periods when deviation from the mean is consistently high (usually when the markets are a bit spooked).

If this is LLOY or RBS forecast with a asymmetric GARCH model, there's little else better - free software will do this for you. If you'all is interested I can show you how.

Excess Kurtosis is a nightmare, some of it is an artefact of cluster volatility but most of it is extreme values (strange large trades / movements). They can be really useful to make quick gains. Detecting them and exploiting them is trickier than it sounds. Again if there is enough interest could walk through effective techniques to do this.

Most of the time you invest based on what you think will happen in the short term, that's forecasting. These three little things can significantly influence how accurate (or not) your forecast is. All the models and software is free - so I advise you all to get to grips with how to go about it :)
 
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