Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

dowie said:
I agree
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I'd agree that the majority of people are gambling and don't even know it.

I don't gamble, I speculate to make a consistent steady gain. I make a judgement call based on tangible fact and experience. I limit my risk always. I'm always set to take away more from the table than I initially put down.
 
blackapache said:
Has been a great last few weeks for me, got in to ppa and gkp (my favourite share!) at their lowest which has seen me make a lot of money. Banks are doing incredibly well at the moment as is TW which i predicted months back but never took the punt :(.
Also yell is doing incredibly well and showing support around 40 now which is great news!

All in all a good few months!
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Seriously well done fella, stonking RNS from GKP this morning. I bought 200,000 of these at 12p recently, just look at us now :D
 
Edleake said:
It can't last and it's one of the reasons I've moved out of equities.
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Also my sentiment, but the bulls and fear is continuing to drive the growth.

I must admit I rely on quite accessible information and common sense, but I am very interested by some of these statistical methods to bolster my arsenal.

Where would be good to start Ed with getting to grips with some new techniques? Just googling or any specific books?
 
Jeffstar said:
Seriously well done fella, stonking RNS from GKP this morning. I bought 200,000 of these at 12p recently, just look at us now :D
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TELL ME ABOUT IT!!!!!!! :D
Got up late this morning as been feeling unwell, turned on my computer and BANG! :) There is more to come as well, MMs are just tree shaking at the moment, i forsee 150p plus as its a huge discovery!!!!!

Edit:
TW, what are ppls thoughts? a steady rise for the last week or so but im wondering if we will see a retrace anytime soon (september :eek:!)
 
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gord said:
Also my sentiment, but the bulls and fear is continuing to drive the growth.

I must admit I rely on quite accessible information and common sense, but I am very interested by some of these statistical methods to bolster my arsenal.

Where would be good to start Ed with getting to grips with some new techniques? Just googling or any specific books?
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It depends on which market(s) you're interested in, and your available capital of course.

Personally, I love Forex/Currenices/FX/Foreign Exchange. It's a 24hour market and there's ALWAYS a bull and bear to play with.

Please don't think me condescending when I say this but I have no knowledge of your past and previous experience so I'll start as I should do with opposition to the common position. :)

The myths of course suggest you can make a quick fortune, it’s easy, it’s low risk, you can buy an effective trading system that does it all for you, you can sign-up for a guaranteed profit systems! Of course you can.. so why isn’t EVERYONE doing it and making money? Because if they were, the market wouldn’t exist of course.

If I we’re in a position whereby my system was making gains constantly, relentlessly, growing my wealth at a considerable rate, do you really think I’d sell it on for a few hundred dollars? Even a few thousand?

If I had a system that was guaranteed to ‘never’ lose (often these systems consider a rolling month or even year where they actually take considerable loss, but over a ‘period’ are up) I’d get the biggest bank loan I could possibly muster and run with it, every last penny.

The reality is, unless you’re a superhuman genius or an institution with significant buying, computing and brain power (and even many, many of those get it badly wrong) then you’ll be going at it the only true way; through hard work.

Trading, not investing, is hard, it’s difficult. It takes time, a lot of time, to develop and gain the relevant experience to consistently (and that's the key word) make a profit. You'll require discipline and psychological strength that for most is hard to fathom.

No, successful traders aren’t superhuman they and they don’t have to be above average intellect, what they are is incredibly adept at mechanising their actions, removing human emotion and disciplining themselves religiously.

You need to be comfortable with taking a hit, taking a loss, taking a number of consecutive losses and many times over too. Many people, perhaps the majority of people are completely adverse to this physiology and understandable so.

Greed is a killer - it will always destroy you and cloud your judgement.

“The trend is your friend” – sure, until it collapses on you and runs off with your bloody money! ;)
“Cut your losers early, let your winners run” – and see them chopped off as the market retraces. Leave your greed at the door.
“Aim for at least a 3:1 reward to risk” – if only it were that simple, don’t get tied up in these ratios, but do limit your risk to what you can afford. Don’t set and arbitrary target of x, make sure it’s a relevant target to the current market and it’s resistance levels.

Arbitrary numbers and systems really have their short comings in trading.


My rough guide to trading start-ups:

- I started out by trading on a simulation with relevant lot sizes. Many people say ‘sims’ and ‘demos’ are a waste of time, that is such an oversight, a good sim allows you to safely test, practise and progress your trading. Going live from day naught is a recipe for disaster
- I traded a valid simulation that tracked the market to the pip, no slippage or massaging of numbers
- I ran a simulator for eight months using and sticking to the methods I would use in live
- I ran a second simulated account for testing theories, systems and techniques
- I set out clear goals, rules and milestones for my trading, one of which was to trade at the very least 200 times on the simulator
- Limit risk, use a stop loss, no stop, no trade! Seriously, stop losses are critical but you need to learn how to use them.
- Start small, consistent gains of 0.5-1% a day/week/month are generally more successful and safer than big jolts up (and down).
- Compounding, as per the above, is so very powerful. Do the math, work 2% gain per week of $10,000, over a year. 2% sounds tiny, but it’s more than enough, and overtime very potent.
- Learn to correctly identify support and resistance levels, trends and price action. That’s all you need. There are countless books out there, websites, forums, seminars etc, I’d suggest looking at babypips.com for novice-intermediate tutorials. It’ll help you get your footing.
- Be aware of news and economic releases, don’t trade them, don’t trade the fundamentals, but use them to signal when you should avoid trading! Fundamental trading causes significant volatility through perception and misconception, the technical way of trading removes this clouding and teaches you to trade ‘what you see’ and not what you expect!
- You can’t predict the future, you’ll never be completely accurate, but you can use these methods to put the odds in your favour.

A couple of books I like:

1) Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profit in Bull and Bear Markets (originally release several decades ago but still very relevant and he has great hair :p)
2) The Forex Trading Course: A Self-study Guide to Becoming a Successful Currency Trader by Abe Cofnas (obviously FX specific)
3) The 21 Irrefutable Truths of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Developing a Mind to Win
by John Hayden

The last book is more a point of interest, it can be cheesy in parts (typically American) but all the same, an interesting read.

There’s a similar book out there on the Trading Wizards which doesn’t teach you how to trade but documents the trading minds of the ‘masters’, again an interesting read to gain perspective.
 
Edleake said:
It depends on which market(s) you're interested in, and your available capital of course.

Personally, I love Forex/Currenices/FX/Foreign Exchange. It's a 24hour market and there's ALWAYS a bull and bear to play with.

Please don't think me condescending when I say this but I have no knowledge of your past and previous experience so I'll start as I should do with opposition to the common position. :)

The myths of course suggest you can make a quick fortune, it’s easy, it’s low risk, you can buy an effective trading system that does it all for you, you can sign-up for a guaranteed profit systems! Of course you can.. so why isn’t EVERYONE doing it and making money? Because if they were, the market wouldn’t exist of course.

If I we’re in a position whereby my system was making gains constantly, relentlessly, growing my wealth at a considerable rate, do you really think I’d sell it on for a few hundred dollars? Even a few thousand?

If I had a system that was guaranteed to ‘never’ lose (often these systems consider a rolling month or even year where they actually take considerable loss, but over a ‘period’ are up) I’d get the biggest bank loan I could possibly muster and run with it, every last penny.

The reality is, unless you’re a superhuman genius or an institution with significant buying, computing and brain power (and even many, many of those get it badly wrong) then you’ll be going at it the only true way; through hard work.

Trading, not investing, is hard, it’s difficult. It takes time, a lot of time, to develop and gain the relevant experience to consistently (and that's the key word) make a profit. You'll require discipline and psychological strength that for most is hard to fathom.

No, successful traders aren’t superhuman they and they don’t have to be above average intellect, what they are is incredibly adept at mechanising their actions, removing human emotion and disciplining themselves religiously.

You need to be comfortable with taking a hit, taking a loss, taking a number of consecutive losses and many times over too. Many people, perhaps the majority of people are completely adverse to this physiology and understandable so.

Greed is a killer - it will always destroy you and cloud your judgement.

“The trend is your friend” – sure, until it collapses on you and runs off with your bloody money! ;)
“Cut your losers early, let your winners run” – and see them chopped off as the market retraces. Leave your greed at the door.
“Aim for at least a 3:1 reward to risk” – if only it were that simple, don’t get tied up in these ratios, but do limit your risk to what you can afford. Don’t set and arbitrary target of x, make sure it’s a relevant target to the current market and it’s resistance levels.

Arbitrary numbers and systems really have their short comings in trading.


My rough guide to trading start-ups:

- I started out by trading on a simulation with relevant lot sizes. Many people say ‘sims’ and ‘demos’ are a waste of time, that is such an oversight, a good sim allows you to safely test, practise and progress your trading. Going live from day naught is a recipe for disaster
- I traded a valid simulation that tracked the market to the pip, no slippage or massaging of numbers
- I ran a simulator for eight months using and sticking to the methods I would use in live
- I ran a second simulated account for testing theories, systems and techniques
- I set out clear goals, rules and milestones for my trading, one of which was to trade at the very least 200 times on the simulator
- Limit risk, use a stop loss, no stop, no trade! Seriously, stop losses are critical but you need to learn how to use them.
- Start small, consistent gains of 0.5-1% a day/week/month are generally more successful and safer than big jolts up (and down).
- Compounding, as per the above, is so very powerful. Do the math, work 2% gain per week of $10,000, over a year. 2% sounds tiny, but it’s more than enough, and overtime very potent.
- Learn to correctly identify support and resistance levels, trends and price action. That’s all you need. There are countless books out there, websites, forums, seminars etc, I’d suggest looking at babypips.com for novice-intermediate tutorials. It’ll help you get your footing.
- Be aware of news and economic releases, don’t trade them, don’t trade the fundamentals, but use them to signal when you should avoid trading! Fundamental trading causes significant volatility through perception and misconception, the technical way of trading removes this clouding and teaches you to trade ‘what you see’ and not what you expect!
- You can’t predict the future, you’ll never be completely accurate, but you can use these methods to put the odds in your favour.

A couple of books I like:

1) Stan Weinstein's Secrets for Profit in Bull and Bear Markets (originally release several decades ago but still very relevant and he has great hair :p)
2) The Forex Trading Course: A Self-study Guide to Becoming a Successful Currency Trader by Abe Cofnas (obviously FX specific)
3) The 21 Irrefutable Truths of Trading: A Trader's Guide to Developing a Mind to Win
by John Hayden

The last book is more a point of interest, it can be cheesy in parts (typically American) but all the same, an interesting read.

There’s a similar book out there on the Trading Wizards which doesn’t teach you how to trade but documents the trading minds of the ‘masters’, again an interesting read to gain perspective.
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Ed, thanks for taking the time to write that, some very useful information :)
 
If I get time tonight I'll show you some of my charts and explain them, hopefully not to confuse but to enlighten. :)

I want to make sure that people aren't under the illusion there's such a thing as the perfect trader!

Even if you just invest in stocks I'd still suggest you look at charts, the basic shape should give you an idea of how the stock has been trading - levels will appear, a moving average will give you an indication of trend and relative price.

A good free charting site is http://www.prorealtime.com/en/ they also offer realtime stuff for a small fee, but to be honest for investing it's really not required, for trading however, it's a requirement.
 
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If you like the idea of currency trading www.FXsol.com offer a free 60 day simulated trial and you can keep re-applying every 30 days thereafter (it takes mere seconds). Great charting software, accurate sim using real-time data, very realistic and true.

If you do look to start testing the water with currencies make sure you keep a trading log, a simple spreasheet will suffice, and analyse your trades to see what you're doing right and/or wrong.
 
Edleake said:
I'd agree that the majority of people are gambling and don't even know it.

I don't gamble, I speculate to make a consistent steady gain. I make a judgement call based on tangible fact and experience. I limit my risk always. I'm always set to take away more from the table than I initially put down.
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its still gambling - you're wagering money on an uncertain event

the fact you may have an edge or you're only wagering on events you believe have a positive expectation is irrelevant

I mean you're even using gambling analogies to explain what you do

"I'm always set to take away more from the table than I initially put down."

it doesn't matter whether you're trading pork bellies, live hogs or one of 6 horses in the 12:30 tomorrow - they're just different markets, you're still essentially doing the same thing.
 
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