Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Sounds like the same mistake made by the banks. Complex models to counter risk with an unfortunate failure to recognise properties for human greed and self destruction

Markets trend on sentiment mostly so if that can be recognised early then theres no need to know anything much about what whats dealt in order to get a good price

If it was about statistics computers would be the best traders
 
silversurfer said:
Sounds like the same mistake made by the banks. Complex models to counter risk with an unfortunate failure to recognise properties for human greed and self destruction

Markets trend on sentiment mostly so if that can be recognised early then theres no need to know anything much about what whats dealt in order to get a good price

If it was about statistics computers would be the best traders
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Statistics need people to interpret them :confused:
 
Where are my roll eyes, the day you rely on software to do the work is the day you pave the way to failure.

I don't use any tools, indicator, wizard, gimmicks, robots, bolt-ons... whatever you want to call them.

I use price action on a candlestick chart and my knowledge/experience of the market to enter and exit my trades.
 
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Simons earned an estimated $2.5 billion in 2008[1], $2.8 billion in 2007[2], $1.7 billion in 2006,[2] $1.5 billion in 2005,[3] (the largest compensation among hedge fund managers that year[4]) and $670 million in 2004.
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http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons#Renaissance_Technologies

I don't think software does too badly....

As for relying on gut instinct/price action - that certainly can work in some cases - if you're say scalping futures in some prop firm - though you've got to be very very good to do it these days and it isn't scalable.
 
dowie said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons#Renaissance_Technologies

I don't think software does too badly....

As for relying on gut instinct/price action - that certainly can work in some cases - if you're say scalping futures in some prop firm - though you've got to be very very good to do it these days and it isn't scalable.
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Absolutely. If you look at very "statistics" heavy orgs like Winton or MAN then you'll see that statistics can make a huge difference. I'm not saying you should automate everything, and most statistical models need a human to make their results actionable, but better knowing that being a blind fool IMO

Good luck all though.
 
Edleake said:
Where are my roll eyes, the day you rely on software to do the work is the day you pave the way to failure.

I don't use any tools, indicator, wizard, gimmicks, robots, bolt-ons... whatever you want to call them.

I use price action on a candlestick chart and my knowledge/experience of the market to enter and exit my trades.
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An incredibly large amount of money is traded daily by computers without direct human interaction. I think you underestimate them.
 
Eriedor said:
An incredibly large amount of money is traded daily by computers without direct human interaction. I think you underestimate them.
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I know what they are and how they operate, but that's a whole new topic altogether, you're talking about a completely different ball game to that of the retail traders!

You can't buy these systems, you can't operate these systems, because you can't run these systems or feed these systems... unless I'm grossly underestimating your wealth here. :)
 
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Edleake said:
I know what they are and how they operate, but that's a whole new topic altogether, you're talking about a completely different ball game to that of the retail traders!
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I think there's a balance, between *understanding* how statistical methods work and being able to apply "common sense" to your trading strategy. Either in isolation is a mistake, both in moderation is a major plus.
 
dowie said:
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/James_Harris_Simons#Renaissance_Technologies
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Simons is one of those insanely intelligent people who would make great success in any vaguely quantitative field. Chern-Simons theory is a massive area of research, spreading over pure mathematics and mathematical physics. I think it's awesome that this guy left the academic community for something else, even though he was so good at his area.

It's like Ronaldo giving up football tomorrow, because he fancies trying out baseball. Then becoming one of the best baseball players on the planet! [apologies for thread intrusion]
 
w11tho said:
Simons is one of those insanely intelligent people who would make great success in any vaguely quantitative field. Chern-Simons theory is a massive area of research, spreading over pure mathematics and mathematical physics. I think it's awesome that this guy left the academic community for something else, even though he was so good at his area.

It's like Ronaldo giving up football tomorrow, because he fancies trying out baseball. Then becoming one of the best baseball players on the planet! [apologies for thread intrusion]
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I hadn't come across this w11tho, very interesting though. :)
 
chipperhead said:
I've just had a look into these, it looks a good buy however I saw it happen with my Lloyds shares when they had a rights issue, the shares took a nose dive just before the new shares were issued.
This will happen on 10th Sept for CAL, they're currently at 40p, if my estimations are correct (not a cat in hells chance probably) I reckon they'll dip to maybe 30p and I'll look at getting in then.
I bet none of that happens though, between now and then they'll have doubled and I'll have missed out on a wad of cash!
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The NAV is about 35 but that doesn't take into account potential for future growth and a recovering commercial property market. It's holding up well, the real test will be on the 10th when people take profits with their allocation. Personally, I'd be surprised if it dipped under 35, if it does I'd probably buy more!

Just look at QEDs jump last week for sentiment on the commercial property market!
 
I typically trade in three different ways.

Scalp, my technique is called 'PipShift' and is a model I'm working on, exercising and improving daily.
Long-term Trend - pretty much the gospal trades that most people that know them take.
Break-outs using levels from my 'PipShifting'.

Each requires a different approach but relies on the other, I scalp using multiple resistance levels that can be as little as 5 pips apart, I use a fast time frame with many many res levels, I'm looking at price action and pattern for confirmation of my levels. I have a selection of charts that are so accurate sometimes I don't believe them, but if I stick to my convictions there's always a high probability trade on them.

I avoid trading when major fundamentals are about to come in to play because in my mind they just skew and warp the market.
 
Edleake said:
Yep HFC is pretty much what I was talking about, it should be outlawed because it's an 'unfair' advantage that puts the bias strongly in the marketmakers hands.
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I don't see how it is 'unfair' or how you could actually outlaw it

there is some controversy over flash orders but that's about it

you don't need to be a huge bank to co-locate servers at an exchange - there are plenty of small firms involved too
 
dowie said:
I don't see how it is 'unfair' or how you could actually outlaw it

there is some controversy over flash orders but that's about it

you don't need to be a huge bank to co-locate servers at an exchange - there are plenty of small firms involved too
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I didn't read the article, I wasn't referring to it specifically.

There's a lot of questions surrounding the process and a lot of unturned stones (more like boulders), not trying to start conspiracy theories as there are enough out there already but the fundamental issue is the significant advantage gained by paying to receive critical order data before the 'rest of the market' receives it.

To the naked eye it's no different, to a computer and clever algorithms it's practically knowing the future!
 
Edleake said:
Where are my roll eyes, the day you rely on software to do the work is the day you pave the way to failure.

I don't use any tools, indicator, wizard, gimmicks, robots, bolt-ons... whatever you want to call them.

I use price action on a candlestick chart and my knowledge/experience of the market to enter and exit my trades.
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Price action is very powerful and one of the most fundamental elements to trading that a lot of 'traders' aren't even aware of. Price action, various levels of EMAs are very useful tools.
 
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