Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

mid_gen · 2 Nov 2023 at 15:53

Quite the bounce today.

413x · 2 Nov 2023 at 16:10

mid_gen said:
Quite the bounce today.

Everything is have is green.
Quite a few 5-10pc

Annoyingly I had an eye on roku.
One of those I had on my watch list before deciding to switch to trackers

silversurfer · 2 Nov 2023 at 17:30

Both the FED and BOE today seen positive, 'almost a victory lap' interpretation of flat rates; not sure about that but typical rally into end year and new year near crash might be how it goes

FXPO in a spot of bother, not popular their chair does a month in jail 11m bail etc.

3pe Russia thugs tried to assassinate BP head with heavy metals at one point, their deal still made money its all relative

slinxy · 2 Nov 2023 at 17:57

mid_gen said:
Quite the bounce today.

Yes it was... I'm less in the red now.. when people refer to black widow's red in the ledger, well they not seen mine yet! lol
Just glad a decided to make mortage over payments rather than placing all the cash into S&S.. it's a guarantee 4.01% saving.

regulus · 2 Nov 2023 at 18:39

platinum87 said:
12.48% 6month, 20.7% YTD, 25.4% 1 year.

According to google finance.

I think you're right. Must've messed something up when I checked previously.

I just ran a custom report on my ETF.

01/01/2023 - 03/11/2023

Custom Returns - 23.61%
12 months - 19.06%

https://www.ishares.com/us/products/239737/ishares-global-100-etf

This is the fund btw. I'm unhedged in the NZ version of it. Exact same holdings.

mid_gen · 2 Nov 2023 at 20:51

Anyone used the after hours trading on Trading212 yet? Haven't give it a go, I imagine the liquidity is pretty low.

platinum87 · 2 Nov 2023 at 22:02

413x said:
That I'm at picking stocks than trackers.

The good decisions I have made were buying in extreme events. (I bought aviva after covid and these are up 70pc ish I think and paying a huge dividend of about 10-12pc (I can't work it out exactly as I have it on 2 platforms and there's more than one buy).

The bad decisions I have made have been gambling on shares in AIM.
Multiple dodgy reporting issues. Where you can tell the market knows something before it's realeased. Not doing this any more.

Buying shares in individual companies because I have been paid and not waiting for good opportunities to get in.

Completely misreading results. I was sure EZJ was going to jump at last results. Results looked great. But the shares absolutely tanked. Still can't quite explain it.
That was the nail in the coffin.

And that the sheer amount of time to do this isn't worth it either.

I know now I'm a "holder" I prefer to hold shares. So trackers are probably even better. As you need to keep up to date with individual companies otherwise.

Overall. It's the AIM stuff that's been worst.
I don't mind persimmon, I caught a falling knife. I don't expect to catch the bottom.
I still have faith in persimmon, easyjet etc. But those AIM gambles? No.

I've been watching some of the active stock threads on Asos for example and it's borderline insanity. It's like kids in a playground.

I've also learnt that motley fool you is only good for doing the opposite of. Not. Sure how that site exists! The advice is worse than neutral overall!

I think you simply fell into the same mistakes everyone does, including myself which is to buy speculative or high yielding companies, value traps etc.

Now i buy quality companies which have a high return on capital and low debt with decent growth path.

This earnings season its tough, im not worried about the price im looking entirely at the company itself. In the case of easyJet their returns on capital are low, their margins are low, historically pre-covid, getting back to covid levels is not something i would want.

Though gains from the recovery buying at oversold is pure trading, personally, i don't want to do that sort of thing or trade that much.

413x · 3 Nov 2023 at 01:04

platinum87 said:
I think you simply fell into the same mistakes everyone does, including myself which is to buy speculative or high yielding companies, value traps etc.

Now i buy quality companies which have a high return on capital and low debt with decent growth path.

This earnings season its tough, im not worried about the price im looking entirely at the company itself. In the case of easyJet their returns on capital are low, their margins are low, historically pre-covid, getting back to covid levels is not something i would want.

Though gains from the recovery buying at oversold is pure trading, personally, i don't want to do that sort of thing or trade that much.

Yes.
High debt seems to be (obviously really) the real kicker right now.

I consider Aviva a high value company. Sure it's doddered around 400 for a while now but the dividend returns have been stable and great since I've owned it.

That's another reason I'm taken back by the ezj fall. They have low debt too.

200sols · 3 Nov 2023 at 08:29

413x said:
Yes.
High debt seems to be (obviously really) the real kicker right now.

I consider Aviva a high value company. Sure it's doddered around 400 for a while now but the dividend returns have been stable and great since I've owned it.

That's another reason I'm taken back by the ezj fall. They have low debt too.

It coincides with other things that you couldn't really predict, the potential for large increases in jet fuels have led to most airline shares sliding recently for example. Aviva is a good company, its been the subject of buyout rumours recently as well with £6 a share thrown around, a bit like LGEN though, the share price never does much.

throwaway4372 · 3 Nov 2023 at 08:39

alex now you're mr tracker you need to put a pound in a naughty jar every time you think of an individual company.

platinum87 · 3 Nov 2023 at 08:51

413x said:
I consider Aviva a high value company. Sure it's doddered around 400 for a while now but the dividend returns have been stable and great since I've owned it.

You say this but the total return for the last 20 years is 173% including all dividends re-invested and so forth, according to the LSE

Nothing has changed with the basic business, nothing will change, this is not high value..

200sols said:
It coincides with other things that you couldn't really predict, the potential for large increases in jet fuels have led to most airline shares sliding recently for example. Aviva is a good company, its been the subject of buyout rumours recently as well with £6 a share thrown around, a bit like LGEN though, the share price never does much.

You can predict that with low returns on capital, high costs, high competition and risks like oil prices shooting up that it is a bad company and therefore will underperform the index.

Uther · 3 Nov 2023 at 08:59

Nice to see things back in the green again (for a while anyway!) Buy and hold, buy and hold...

413x · 3 Nov 2023 at 09:32

throwaway4372 said:
alex now you're mr tracker you need to put a pound in a naughty jar every time you think of an individual company.

I know. The draw to opportunities is strong!
Its actually really hard. (I now expect my current watch list to bounce)

413x · 3 Nov 2023 at 13:41

Does the market think inflation is over or something? 2 days in a row with near double digit daily gains on rate sensitive stocks?
I've jumped nearly 10pc over the week.

smokedog · 3 Nov 2023 at 13:49

413x said:
Does the market think inflation is over or something? 2 days in a row with near double digit daily gains on rate sensitive stocks?
I've jumped nearly 10pc over the week.

Data (Unemployment rate) has come in showing that the FED is most likely done with rate hikes.

413x · 3 Nov 2023 at 13:56

smokedog said:
Data (Unemployment rate) has come in showing that the FED is most likely done with rate hikes.

Think it's looking same across the eurozone.

I believe I bought these reits and house builders slightly too early. But not by much.

(if indeed this is the start of the turn)

200sols · 3 Nov 2023 at 13:59

Mostly just erased the losses of the last 10 days or so. Nothing special happening really.

slinxy · 7 Nov 2023 at 21:15

Is anyone buying or looking at buying UK Glits? If so, how?

Tempted to lock away some cash for 5-7 years at a fixed return before the interest rates drop and labour coming in to fix things..

regulus · 11 Nov 2023 at 16:53

Reading this thread makes me log on to my ETF/Tracker account far too often.

I'm 1-2 decent trading days away from being back at my ATH, which was 21/08/23. After yesterday's green session, my account will update on Monday 5pm and I'm hoping to be back to the top.

Very very tempted to sell out and pay off my mortgage. Especially now that I won't be locking in any losses.

booyaka · 11 Nov 2023 at 17:02

weird week again last week - SIPP bounced up about £8k

First Group continue to rise and rise. Now +235% from my original purchase price. I've got a bit in Tesla/Ferrexpo/Kodal as well but they are struggling. Rest in EFT's/Funds.