Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
Maybe, I'd be happy if we finally close above the 50sma (238.2p) personally... Ideally a close above the 263.4p open too...
It'll gap up, so I'm watching volume to confirm a breakaway gap, and a trend reversal...
Would be nice to see the 200sma (310.4p) broken when the flowtest is complete. It's going to be a long month!
Last edited:
You'd have a negative expectation in most cases IMO. Chances are if you do make some money, its down to luck and whatever edge you're unwittingly exploiting won't necessarily last.
There are already software packages out there for retail investors/traders to easily implement trading strategies based on simple TA rules - lots of people try this, most of them lose money. With thousands of people already trying to apply the same TA rules to the same sets of data its fairly unlikely that you'll be able to find anything to exploit by trying to do the same thing yourself.
Soldato
- Joined
- 27 Dec 2005
- Posts
- 17,315
- Location
- Bristol
And if the system worked, why would the developer sell it to you?
Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
TA is an enhancement not a total solution
TA can be obvious stuff like this share has been going up every month on average. People can lose sight because it fell for 3 weeks and forget the last 11 months, put a trendline in and its a reminder.
I think many do this in their heads, weighing it up
HFT is a form of computer trading that works on equations to guess when its best to sell or hold. However the trades dont last much longer then a couple of seconds so we can see why a computer might do this best. Flash trading, this is what caused that big sell off a year ago for 10 mins
Japanese candlesticks are information. There is nothing added beyond fact, it shows highest price, lowest, the open and closing price all in 1 bar. A normal graph shows close only
Volume is also info. If 90% of the last years trades were at 100p that is where the price is most likely to return to like a magnet.
Anyway, I got flushed out on margin checks for a couple trades while AFK.
VGM dropped a lot recently but I think they are doing the right thing, presuming they are successful then investment cost is a future positive
Sugar cane power can drop their costs by 120$ an ounce, sounds good
110p is a reasonable base, a lot of history here
The way I do things Russ is hold just trades on margin. Buy the longer term stuff in shares, I dont trust those guys completely and the market is always acting like a Richter graph.
Hate stoplosses, hence Im taking profits early possibly stupidly today
Also looked at what I could buy to replace possible sales. XEL compared to GKP should be 90p ? That was my late night look, correct or not no wonder it sold if others saw similar.
That is not a like for like reserve comparison so hopefully Im wrong and so is the market
Sold some FPM RKH. Wish I had bought even more PGM RRL they done so well
Bought more VGM (at a cheaper price then my forced sale) LLOY CAD
Thinking of XEL and almost certainly buying EO now as its just viewed so negatively but could have good news still?
Buying more LLOY if it goes to 50p I think but might opt for Barc to replace BP maybe
Jargon glossary was useful to me:
Just read this, awesome
Either way, the way to view these ideas I reckon is as very bullish sentiment. That is a contrarian signal that its ok to take profits now, everyone loves this share so leave by the back door
. I'd take at least some profit off on this reasoning.
[Check back on XEL, pretty sure people were saying this company is going to bought out. Maybe ]
Obviously that is just private investors, the real big money opinions comes in when say GKP or RKH, etc goes mainstream or even makes the FT100 like CNE did
The FT editors shorted GKP at one point 2 years ago but they were not the % majority
Encore is not strong on its recovery today, waited and just bought a bit
TA can be obvious stuff like this share has been going up every month on average. People can lose sight because it fell for 3 weeks and forget the last 11 months, put a trendline in and its a reminder.
I think many do this in their heads, weighing it up
HFT is a form of computer trading that works on equations to guess when its best to sell or hold. However the trades dont last much longer then a couple of seconds so we can see why a computer might do this best. Flash trading, this is what caused that big sell off a year ago for 10 mins
Japanese candlesticks are information. There is nothing added beyond fact, it shows highest price, lowest, the open and closing price all in 1 bar. A normal graph shows close only
Volume is also info. If 90% of the last years trades were at 100p that is where the price is most likely to return to like a magnet.
Anyway, I got flushed out on margin checks for a couple trades while AFK.
VGM dropped a lot recently but I think they are doing the right thing, presuming they are successful then investment cost is a future positive Sugar cane power can drop their costs by 120$ an ounce, sounds good
110p is a reasonable base, a lot of history here
The way I do things Russ is hold just trades on margin. Buy the longer term stuff in shares, I dont trust those guys completely and the market is always acting like a Richter graph.
Hate stoplosses, hence Im taking profits early possibly stupidly today
Also looked at what I could buy to replace possible sales. XEL compared to GKP should be 90p ? That was my late night look, correct or not no wonder it sold if others saw similar.
That is not a like for like reserve comparison so hopefully Im wrong and so is the market
Sold some FPM RKH. Wish I had bought even more PGM RRL they done so well
Bought more VGM (at a cheaper price then my forced sale) LLOY CAD
Thinking of XEL and almost certainly buying EO now as its just viewed so negatively but could have good news still?
Buying more LLOY if it goes to 50p I think but might opt for Barc to replace BP maybe
Jargon glossary was useful to me:
Code:
"1P" means proved reserves.
"2P" means proved plus probable reserves.
"3P" means proved plus probable plus possible reserves. Possible reserves are those additional reserves that are less certain to be recovered than probable reserves and there is a 10% probability that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the sum of proved plus probable plus possible reserves.
"best estimate" is considered to be the best estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is equally likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will be greater or less than the best estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 50 percent probability (P50) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the best estimate.
"boe" means barrels of oil equivalent. Boe's, derived by converting gas to oil in the ratio of five thousand eight hundred cubic feet of gas to one barrel of oil, may be misleading, particularly if used in isolation. A boe conversion is based on an energy equivalency conversion method primarily applicable at the burner tip and does not represent a value equivalency at the wellhead.
"Core Area" means FSP and SSP.
"DECC" means UK Department of Energy and Climate Change.
"FSP" means First Stage Production in the core area of the Field.
"high estimate" is considered to be an optimistic estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is unlikely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the high estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 10 percent probability (P10) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the high estimate.
"low estimate" is considered to be a conservative estimate of the quantity that will actually be recovered. It is likely that the actual remaining quantities recovered will exceed the low estimate. If probabilistic methods are used, there should be at least a 90 percent probability (P90) that the quantities actually recovered will equal or exceed the low estimate.
"MM" means millions.
"MMboe" means millions of barrels of oil equivalent.
"MMstb" means millions stock tank barrels.
"NPV10" means net present value in money of the day using a 10% forward discount rate, which values do not represent fair market value.
"SSP" means Second Stage Production in the core area of the Field.Just read this, awesome
Either way, the way to view these ideas I reckon is as very bullish sentiment. That is a contrarian signal that its ok to take profits now, everyone loves this share so leave by the back door
. I'd take at least some profit off on this reasoning.[Check back on XEL, pretty sure people were saying this company is going to bought out. Maybe ]
Obviously that is just private investors, the real big money opinions comes in when say GKP or RKH, etc goes mainstream or even makes the FT100 like CNE did
The FT editors shorted GKP at one point 2 years ago but they were not the % majority
Encore is not strong on its recovery today, waited and just bought a bit
Last edited:
Its an area full of pseudoscience unfortunately which doesn't do the field any favours - some of it might have some merit, can be quantified and tested - lots of it however either needs to be evaluated subjectively (so essentially is worthless) or relies on choosing arbitrary parameters (fairly obvious issues here too).
Ordinary price bars show you that without the addition of a coloured body, Japanese candle sticks were invented in order to attempt to predict future price movements - 'dojis', 'shooting stars' etc..etc.. . Unfortunately they rely on chart patterns which will either be subjective or will need to be defined arbitrarily. Perhpas a nice way of displaying data - if you want green/red or shaded/unshaded bars but I'd be rather skeptical about using them for their intended purpose of prediction.
People tend to stick to TA as its easily accessible, easy to 'understand', doesn't required any mathematical or financial knowledge and gives them an easy framework from which to start trading. Its heavily promoted by brokers/spread betting firms as its something they can use to 'educate' clients with relatively quickly and get them placing trades ASAP. Unfortunately for them the reality is that extracting money from the markets on a consistent basis is much harder than that.
Last edited:
Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Could be a bit of a turn around day today still though it looks bad now, that is an ideal (trading) scenario
Dollar is again weaker which helps anything alternate like commoditys
HER is reversing all its gains. Should have held around here really, losing both 5 day average price and remaining 40% of its rise.
Considering it had already fell last month, someone doesnt like this company or its future funding problems maybe?
Lloyds losing its grip, going to 45 maybe. Reflected doom from the US of Fail
So I buy some HER and LLOY, sold some RRL yesterday buy back at 16 or lower
TA = weather forecasting
Anyone like Microsoft as a share? As well as Intel these give good divs, they always look cheap to me
Dollar is again weaker which helps anything alternate like commoditys
HER is reversing all its gains. Should have held around here really, losing both 5 day average price and remaining 40% of its rise.
Considering it had already fell last month, someone doesnt like this company or its future funding problems maybe?
Lloyds losing its grip, going to 45 maybe. Reflected doom from the US of Fail
So I buy some HER and LLOY, sold some RRL yesterday buy back at 16 or lower
TA = weather forecasting
Anyone like Microsoft as a share? As well as Intel these give good divs, they always look cheap to me
Last edited:
Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Big question but simple answer I think is shares are not overvalued in return/risk vs cash inflation risks
All paper cash is based on dollar value, that idea is changing to fix to gold or who knows what instead so I'd say holding large amounts of cash is more dangerous then shares in general.
If you look at a tenner it has a promise on it, where as the contract for a share is division of ownership.
This Arab spring is related to financial pressures, so if we talk of a 'crash' Im thinking of events of a tectonic scale
This may cause upset so stay flexible I think is best but not completely liquid
The 1987 crash was tiny for example, that was a technical blip. Im thinking the whole bias will change but who knows exactly how.
Watch videos of WArren Buffet, I think he sold all his bonds now
At 10 PE still cant call them a bargain but it is cheap.
Average annual return was 17% when I looked in April but we fell a lot since then so not that great really. I dont include some of the quick trades so call it 10% overall. That is everything including a SIPP and I dont deal penny shares in large amounts like some so theres no chance of me getting big gains really
If you are new just buy a unit trust fund as its much easier and cheaper. An Asia pacific tracker I got from L&G was simple to do but one of my best investments ever, it holds things like BHP and Samsung for you without the hassle. Very much less risk
Lots of moaning about North sea tax. If that was altered it might give a boost to a few shares
All paper cash is based on dollar value, that idea is changing to fix to gold or who knows what instead so I'd say holding large amounts of cash is more dangerous then shares in general.
If you look at a tenner it has a promise on it, where as the contract for a share is division of ownership.
This Arab spring is related to financial pressures, so if we talk of a 'crash' Im thinking of events of a tectonic scale
This may cause upset so stay flexible I think is best but not completely liquid
The 1987 crash was tiny for example, that was a technical blip. Im thinking the whole bias will change but who knows exactly how.
Watch videos of WArren Buffet, I think he sold all his bonds now
Dropped 11%, I thought due to the revolution. Kinda surprised they are not cheaper
At 10 PE still cant call them a bargain but it is cheap.
Average annual return was 17% when I looked in April but we fell a lot since then so not that great really. I dont include some of the quick trades so call it 10% overall. That is everything including a SIPP and I dont deal penny shares in large amounts like some so theres no chance of me getting big gains really
If you are new just buy a unit trust fund as its much easier and cheaper. An Asia pacific tracker I got from L&G was simple to do but one of my best investments ever, it holds things like BHP and Samsung for you without the hassle. Very much less risk
Lots of moaning about North sea tax. If that was altered it might give a boost to a few shares
Associate
- Joined
- 2 Oct 2010
- Posts
- 659
- Location
- Bedfordshire
It's all too much risk. How do you live with those levels of stress?
Weather forecasting is a pretty complex area and the people who work in the field come form the same initial pool as those employed as researchers by large CTAs/Hedge funds - mathematicians and physicists. It couldn't be further from TA tbh...
A better analogy would be TA(or at least the majority of it) = the crude barometers you can stick on your mantelpiece that will give you a good prediction every so often purely out of chance....
Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Ask this guy
Sounded like you got my point but then said not
Markets are a natural phenomena because people are and a reoccurring pattern does occur, chaotic as prices may be ultimately its about the people and human nature or this thread would be redundant
COUNTRY SIZE BY OIL RESERVES
Last edited:
Sorry to be pedantic but I simply feel obliged to respond when I see TA mentioned without critique. Leaving such posts unchecked could well lead someone else observing the thread to look into it uncritically as some sort of scientifically valid method for analysing financial time series data - then potentially blindly following this stuff and suffering a financial loss. The majority of TA is pseudo-science.
Soldato
- Joined
- 13 Jul 2004
- Posts
- 20,341
- Location
- Stanley Hotel, Colorado
Sold last of my Rockhopper regrettably
Just trying to reduce risk /staying liquid again, plenty of chance they could get over 300 properly and stay there but its a bit of hill to get over first. over 265 a positive share
Bought more CAD which is an actual (small) producer backed by sales of assets, etc
Looking at RRL EO RIO FXP
ABG fallen big time
Just trying to reduce risk /staying liquid again, plenty of chance they could get over 300 properly and stay there but its a bit of hill to get over first. over 265 a positive share
Bought more CAD which is an actual (small) producer backed by sales of assets, etc
Looking at RRL EO RIO FXP
ABG fallen big time
