Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

All those people saying it's about long term, keep giving yourself excuses to make you feel better
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Investment does require belief that the company will actually sell oil one day (which can take years) otherwise its just speculation on pricetags for a day or so and anything can happen in one day - I dont see that as 'safer'

I try to scale in, prices are more and more volatile for sure




USA at AA+ makes the UK superior now, something we've never seen nor our parents so nobody knows what'll happen.


In our elections our currency was much weaker but it recovered with government spending 'cuts' (we run a deficit).
Could this AA rating mean the exchange rate with USA rises back to 2 dollar a pound.

The effect of stronger currency is to put pressure on everything valued in that currency.
So house prices to stock prices are effected and markets always try to guess the future

I do doubt we suddenly get stronger currency, rates will first show about 8pm Sunday when Japan trades


****storm on Monday
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Ultimately its not that important, oil is oil etc. Stocks dont have to go down
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USA is UK largest trading partner and we will be dragged down with them. We are the 3rd largest owner of USA debt, etc

So UK will be weak and should prove to be inferior to the trading worth of companys doing business internationally in global currencies, listed in London
I do not see much 'currency risk'

http://www.investopedia.com/terms/c/currencyrisk.asp

This is the revenue split for BP in various currencys. Like 20% is Russian
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And I bought Hyder on Friday because they are well diversified between countries. My aim is they will survive by not relying too much on one
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I'll be happy to make my £120 profit on the RRL shares I brought on thursday. All being well, the share price should go up for Range Resources. :)
 
Simon said:
I think the US downgrade was already priced in anyway
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The chance of it happening was probably priced in... the fact that it actually *has* happened hasn't yet been priced in - there will likely be a reaction.

So whilst it isn't an unexpected event that no-one realised would happen, it is still a significant event.

Thing is it is essentially a handful of people at an agency telling the market something they already essentially knew. Telling people stuff they already knew however can have an effect - tis called 'common knowledge'.
 
Got some futures prices now and FTSE is back to its closing price. USA closed positive and its lost that, so could be worse I guess

So it lost 140 virtual points it might of had

Japan has dam awful government debt so they are not going to give much judgement ?

I owned SL for years, when FTSE was 3600 thats what I bought that week.
Not checked them recently but like Barclays they lost out on a take over bid years back, rather then RBS who 'won' ie. no cash worries imo


An important thing is S&P released this news on friday for a reason. No one could sell for a couple days. So the news was not new, at least a few knew which I hope means most of the selling already occurred

On the bad side, Italy and Spain are about to fall over? USA is no where close to that, its possible thats of more concern.
I really have no interest in 'gilt' bonds so I dont know
Euro has a tighter currency policy, tight to the point Germany refuse to budge and its going to strangle the weaker ones maybe.
Where as USA just dont give a crap, they have a blank cheque book and ironically that I think that means less stress/worry near term anyway.

Also I should mention August 9th Ben B will be speaking, maybe hint at new money printing, just the rumour of new free money could be a boost. Just guessing


Looking at a negative scenario for BP if we do get a further low it should hold 381 at least and 365 is lowest reasonable point
US Crude is showing 84.5


For a div share I was looking at using a free trade iii sent me, on a bit of Santander who yield 9.3% ? South america growth
 
MXP and GPX announce positive oil finds this morning I think. Its all less bad because ECB is buying up Spanish and Italy debt apparently

Its another band aid instead of an amputation but it could set the low, who knows


180 is a reasonable long term buy area on Barclays and I think 150 below that. Really I wish I'd just stuck to Stan and BNC
UPDATE: Iraq Oil Ministry Qualifies 41 International Firms For New Bid Round(Adds more quotes, details, background from paragraph 4 onwards.)
By Hassan Hafidh Of DOW JONES NEWSWIRES AMMAN (Dow Jones)--The Iraqi oil ministry has qualified some 41 international companies to compete for 12 exploration blocs in the next bidding round which is scheduled to be held in January, the ministry said in statement Monday.
Iraq, which sits on the world's third largest oil reserves, has estimated that the new blocs would add some 10 billion barrels of oil to Iraq's current reserves of 143 billion barrels, and some 29 trillion cubic feet of gas to its current reserves of 112.6 trillion cubic feet.
Among the companies qualified by the ministry for the licensing auction are some of the world's oil majors such as BP PLC (BP), Royal Dutch Shell PLC (RDSA), ExxonMobil Corp. (XOM), Lukoil Holdings (LUKOY, LKOH.RS), Total SA (TOT), China National Petroleum Corp., or CNPC, Eni SpA (ENI.MI), Occidental Petroleum Corp. (OXY) and Chevron Corp. (CVX).
The list also includes nine Japanese firms. They are, among others, INPEX Corp. (IPXHY), Japan Oil, Gas and Metals National Corp., or JOGMEC, Mitsui Oil Exploration Co. Ltd, JX Nippon Oil & Gas Exploration Corp., or JX-NOEX, Itochu Corp ((8001.TO), Mitsubishi Corp. (8058.TO), and Japan Petroleum exploration Co. Ltd (1662.TO), known as Japex.
Two Arab companies are listed by the ministry. They are Mubadala Oil & Gas of the United Arab Emirates, and Kuwait Energy of Kuwait.
The ministry said the chosen companies are among 50 firms who submitted applications and documents to take part in the bidding round, scheduled to be held in January next year.
Many of the listed companies have won deals to upgrade Iraq's vast oil and gas fields. Baghdad has held three bidding rounds in the past two years to auction off 15 of the country's most prized oil and gas fields.
Three of the announced blocks are located in the western Anbar province while two others are shared by the Anbar, Nineveh and Najaf governorates. The sixth is in Nineveh governorate in northern Iraq. These six are believed to contain gas resources, oil ministry officials said.
The remaining five blocks, believed to contain crude oil resources, are located in other governorates including Basra, Dhi Qar (Nassiriyah), Muthanna (Samawa), Babil, Najaf, Wasit and Diyala provinces, the officials said.
The size of the blocks range from 5,500 square kilometers to 9,000 square kilometers, they added.
Iraq needs to boost gas production and build more gas-fired power plants to increase its power output, currently at 6,500 megawatts, which represent less than half the country's needs.
Although international companies would prefer production-sharing contracts for exploration blocks, Iraqi oil officials said the deals would be based on a service contract, which means winning companies will be paid a flat fee for their services rather than be given a share in the resources. But it would be slightly different from the 20-year service contract offered in the previous three bidding rounds, they said.
August 08, 2011 05:05 ET (09:05 GMT)
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Kurd offers much nicer terms, a source of friction


GKP I think is reasonable to look at
Also looked at Weir
Took CNR at 4.5p [4.5 and 2.5 show peaks in trading]
MXP is at a longer term support level

[FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Heritage Oil Commences Drilling the Miran West-3 Well in the Kurdistan Region of Iraq[/FONT] [FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif] LONDON, UNITED KINGDOM--(Marketwire - Aug. 8, 2011)

[/FONT][FONT=Verdana, Arial, Helvetica, sans-serif]Miran West-3 Well

Drilling of the Miran West-3 appraisal well has commenced. The well is targeting reservoir sections encountered in discovery wells with the primary objective of appraising the Jurassic and Cretaceous reservoir formations in the Miran West structure. Management estimates gross in-place volumes for the Miran West structure to have a P90-P50 range of 6.8-9.1 TCF of gas, with an upside P10 gas potential of 12.3 TCF. This is in addition to the estimated P50-P90 range of 42-71 MMbbls of condensate and 53-75 MMbbls of oil.

The Miran West-3 location and well trajectory provides a c. 4.3 kilometre appraisal step out from the Miran West-2 Jurassic reservoir penetration. The planned well path targets the flanks of the structure. The well bore will be orientated and inclined to optimally intercept open fracture networks associated with multiple faults identified on recently acquired 3D seismic data. This well will also appraise the Cretaceous oil and gas reservoirs discovered in the Miran West-1 and Miran West-2 wells, further enhancing knowledge of the Miran structures.

Drilling of the Miran West-3 well is expected to take approximately seven months with key reservoir intervals being tested as the well is drilled.

After drilling and testing, it is intended that this rig will move to drill the Miran West-4 appraisal well. A second rig is being sourced to drill the planned Miran East-1 exploration well, with drilling expected to commence before year end, at which time there will be two rigs operating in the Miran Field.

3D Seismic Programme

The Miran 3D seismic programme is now approximately 90% complete. The significant improvement in seismic data quality over the Miran Field is encouraging and assists greatly with the selection of well locations. Initial interpretation of the first tranche of data acquired has highlighted increased resource potential, in particular for the Miran East structure. This potential will be targeted by the Miran East-1 exploration well to be drilled before year end.

Tony Buckingham, Chief Executive Officer, commented:

"The spudding of Miran West-3 begins our active multi-well exploration and appraisal drilling programme in Kurdistan. This first well is principally appraising the Cretaceous and Jurassic discoveries made in the Miran West-1 and Miran West-2 wells. We plan to provide regular announcements during the drilling of this well as the key reservoir intervals will be tested as the well is drilled."

Heritage Energy Middle East, a wholly-owned subsidiary of Heritage, is operator and holds a 75% interest in the Miran Block and Genel Energy International Limited the remaining 25%, although there are third party back-in rights. The Miran Block has an area of 1,015 square kilometres and is located west of the city of Suleimaniah. The Miran Block contains two large structures, Miran West and Miran East, which have been mapped from 2D and 3D seismic programmes conducted by Heritage.[/FONT]
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Rockhopper drops another 13% ? Is that capitulation or on good reason
 
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Well I've just bailed on Range Resources this morning...taking home £325 profit and I only brought them last thursday. Happy days for me. :)
 
Tempted to buy more into CNR, would bring my average holding to around 5p.

I guess if I really believe in the fundamentals and the company, nothing should be stopping me, but then there is the increased exposure. Hm.
 
Blackhawk47 said:
Well I've just bailed on Range Resources this morning...taking home £325 profit and I only brought them last thursday. Happy days for me. :)
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Long term they have a very good chance of making a lot more than that. I've nearly been with them a year and won't be selling for sometime as the potential is too great to ignore in my opinion.
 
Orange Peel said:
Long term they have a very good chance of making a lot more than that. I've nearly been with them a year and won't be selling for sometime as the potential is too great to ignore in my opinion.
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I've held them two times before earlier this year. I just find it easy taking a profit and running rather than keeping them and hoping for a big payout.

That said, I doubled my money earlier in the year just as they took off from 9p to 18/20p. :p
 
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