Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

[DarrenM343]

That's a great chart, what goes up, must come down.


http://markets.businessinsider.com/...nvestors-flee-stock-selloff-2018-2-1014976403

I expect to see a lot more money flow from the stock market to digital assets.

I very doubt it to be honest. Sure, even some stock investors are more like gamblers but serious investors wont consider putting much into crypto IMO. There's too much risk and volativety and zero regulation. Sure it can be part of a "balanced" portfolio but nobody in their right mind would switch say £100k from stocks unto crypto.Lets not forget that stocks were rising too quickly too (valuations too high), a 10% or even greater drop is not unexpected. The fundamentlas lack in crypto making it a tool of speculation only, not serious investing IMO.

For example, you buy shares in a company that produces something, provides a services, makes a profit. A lot of crypto investors/gamblers buy on hope that it'll go up as more people hopefully buy it. Stocks and crypto are entirely different.

The way I see the recent correction, it is simply a correction at this stage possibly a shock due to having to be weaned off the drug of the printing presses. I personally don't think the markets need it anymore so the bull market will likely continue, albeit, possibly at a slower pace than the recent fast moves (of the Dow and S&P 500 at least)

 

[Richdog]

It certainly wasn't meant to be patronising, but is was presumptuous given that you'd provided no more information than a number. Basing on analyst forecast however does show that some thought has gone into the decision. There'll always be some scepticism on a PC tech forum such as this, when people invest in a stock of which they're a consumer, as the emotional pull of 'OMG, this card / CPU is so amazing that it is a no brainer to invest'. Clearly not the case here though.

Ok, but my previous posts I hope show that this is not the way that I think. I have a lot of tech background and do my best to stay on top of the latest industry and investment information. I use only a combination of my own logical guesswork and the news/analysis that is out there, along with a small pinch of salt, to base my investment views and decisions. There's not much else I feel I can do, but in the end I trust my own judgment and so far it has been on a good track. Besides, my career is based around objective risk assessment so I am not disposed towards acting like a total loon as far as my savings go.

I hope in future I don't need to add a long disclaimer stating the (to me at least) obvious things like this when talking about price targets or what I think are good or bad investments. It's every man for himself.

 

[cadmunkey]

Some of the posts on this thread are worse than the ones on the crypto forum. Clueless!

 

[Trusty]

I very doubt it to be honest. Sure, even some stock investors are more like gamblers but serious investors wont consider putting much into crypto IMO. There's too much risk and volativety and zero regulation. Sure it can be part of a "balanced" portfolio but nobody in their right mind would switch say £100k from stocks unto crypto.Lets not forget that stocks were rising too quickly too (valuations too high), a 10% or even greater drop is not unexpected. The fundamentlas lack in crypto making it a tool of speculation only, not serious investing IMO.

For example, you buy shares in a company that produces something, provides a services, makes a profit. A lot of crypto investors/gamblers buy on hope that it'll go up as more people hopefully buy it. Stocks and crypto are entirely different.

The way I see the recent correction, it is simply a correction at this stage possibly a shock due to having to be weaned off the drug of the printing presses. I personally don't think the markets need it anymore so the bull market will likely continue, albeit, possibly at a slower pace than the recent fast moves (of the Dow and S&P 500 at least)

Do you think the fundamentals lack in ALL digital assets? I think we'll start seeing the term digital assets more often this year, there's going to be an explosion in smart contracts. I agree about most companies being out there all hype, it is a bubble, much like the dot.com period, but out of a bubble there will be some incredible new technologies installed on the planet with blockchain and hashgraph technology. Incredible incredible stuff. You just need to do your research as to which companies to back.
These digital assets are part of stocks and shares, ICO's replace IPO's, power to the people, "you're your own bank"

For example, perhaps this company might succeed?
https://hacken.io

good video here about the Hasgraph with Leemon Baird.

 

[DarrenM343]

Do you think the fundamentals lack in ALL digital assets? I think we'll start seeing the term digital assets more often this year, there's going to be an explosion in smart contracts. I agree about most companies being out there all hype, it is a bubble, much like the dot.com period, but out of a bubble there will be some incredible new technologies installed on the planet with blockchain and hashgraph technology. Incredible incredible stuff. You just need to do your research as to which companies to back.
These digital assets are part of stocks and shares, ICO's replace IPO's, power to the people, "you're your own bank"

For example, perhaps this company might succeed?

good video here about the Hasgraph with Leemon Baird.

Will have a look at the video later. Don't disagree with you but there's going to be a lot of changes. All of the crypto available today might not even exist in another time, they could all be superseded. Crypto isn't going anywhere but I doubt it's going to continue as it is. The speculation phase will likely end too IMO.
There's a lot of scam ICO's and they're nothing like IPO's. I think many of the millennial/anti-establishment folks need to think carefully about what they're investing in. Ie, it's not "being your own bank", IMO .
Give me an example of another serious investment asset class that has zero regulation? . In it's current form crypto investing is just speculation. Some do have sound ideas around their trading but for many,probably the majority, they're just gambling IMO.
Ripple has been signing contracts but I'm sure at least one of those is for the underlying technology. Buying Ripple coin does not give you access to the profit the company could now make from these contracts, you're not buyinig shares in Ripple company. Ripple coin is almost like a showcase for the technology.
Crypto needs to mature and evolve and I think it's only going to start doing that under regulation which will also likely change it from what it currently is.
I've asked folks to give me strong fundamental reasons why x or y coins should be worth x amount more in the future and nobody gives a strong enough/sound answer. Still seems to come around to it will be because more people will buy because they will .

 

[dowie]

Nvidia should do well if its linked to machine learning but is there any company more applicable or likely to benefit from that sector expanding.

Well intel and AMD just haven't really invested in it - nvidia took a longer term view to not just focus on graphics and it paid off, for GPGPU applications, especially with regards to machine learning the other two can't touch nvidia.

It isn't just a CUDA vs OpenCL thing either, nvidia has spent time and effort creating/optimising cuDNN (their deep learning libraries) AMD simply doesn't have an equivalent. The major deep learning libraries can all make use of it and so nvidia dominates in that field.

 

[Trusty]

Will have a look at the video later. Don't disagree with you but there's going to be a lot of changes. All of the crypto available today might not even exist in another time, they could all be superseded. Crypto isn't going anywhere but I doubt it's going to continue as it is. The speculation phase will likely end too IMO.
There's a lot of scam ICO's and they're nothing like IPO's. I think many of the millennial/anti-establishment folks need to think carefully about what they're investing in. Ie, it's not "being your own bank", IMO .
Give me an example of another serious investment asset class that has zero regulation? . In it's current form crypto investing is just speculation. Some do have sound ideas around their trading but for many,probably the majority, they're just gambling IMO.
Ripple has been signing contracts but I'm sure at least one of those is for the underlying technology. Buying Ripple coin does not give you access to the profit the company could now make from these contracts, you're not buyinig shares in Ripple company. Ripple coin is almost like a showcase for the technology.
Crypto needs to mature and evolve and I think it's only going to start doing that under regulation which will also likely change it from what it currently is.
I've asked folks to give me strong fundamental reasons why x or y coins should be worth x amount more in the future and nobody gives a strong enough/sound answer. Still seems to come around to it will be because more people will buy because they will .

Of course a lot of digital assets could be superseded, just like any business, things like Ethereum, Ripple, Bitcoin, zCash, NEO, Monero, Stellar, Tronix, Litecoin are not going away anytime soon, they provide usage in the real world, hence the asset bit. I believe it is being your own bank, not fully, I understand that, but it's certainly taking a layer away, no doubt about that, if you don't see that or agree, then fair enough. Yes it will be regulated eventually, don't disagree with that.
Regarding Ripple, you are correct about the "coin", it doesn't give you access to Ripple Labs profits, you're relying on the healthy ecosystem of XRP, which has been stated numerous times from high sources, that is the primary goal. Think of all the nostro/vostro accounts that hold money but is relatively expensive and time consuming to provide efficient liquidity. I think that sits at around $27 trillion, the elephant in the room. Could ripple be pegged to the dollar, yeah it could, depending on certain factors, but it could also go to $500.

 

[silversurfer]

Could ripple be pegged to the dollar, yeah it could, depending on certain factors, but it could also go to $500.

Ripple is a fake system, the main benefactor are the companies that use it and I guess if you can speculate on its price then sure but long term its not going to rise like Bitcoin did because its not laid out in that way. Any currency peg is subject to break down, thats true when its governments are trying to do it so I cant think a company has any greater power to make it true. The weakest link will break under any strain and thats the same deal as a paper note of value, I lose money from my holding is how it goes.
The US just set a giant deficit in their spending budget, that missing value comes out of every dollar. Inversely thats a positive for any strong set standard in crypto, which is not ripple but bitcoin should appreciate with weak dollar.

Real value comes from market demand vs supply, proper capitalism not the arranged usage like Ripple. I dont mind it exists because they are not lying about it but I dont think its built for people to hold just use

 

[Trusty]

Ripple is a fake system, the main benefactor are the companies that use it and I guess if you can speculate on its price then sure but long term its not going to rise like Bitcoin did because its not laid out in that way. Any currency peg is subject to break down, thats true when its governments are trying to do it so I cant think a company has any greater power to make it true. The weakest link will break under any strain and thats the same deal as a paper note of value, I lose money from my holding is how it goes.
The US just set a giant deficit in their spending budget, that missing value comes out of every dollar. Inversely thats a positive for any strong set standard in crypto, which is not ripple but bitcoin should appreciate with weak dollar.

Real value comes from market demand vs supply, proper capitalism not the arranged usage like Ripple. I dont mind it exists because they are not lying about it but I dont think its built for people to hold just use

I've no idea what you mean by fake system,what Nakamoto released to the world was incredible but it doesn't solve any real world problems, Ripple obviously does. How do you explain Bitcoin's power usage? I'm long on Bitcoin too, but to say Ripple is fake is just not true.

 

[silversurfer]

By fake I mean artificial structure to that value, its centralised and organised to benefit the Ripple organisation themselves. If someone wants to trust that idea, maybe it'll work out who knows but I think its substantially different to Bitcoin distribution.
BTC isnt perfect either, theres about 16 bn worth of coins that we suppose is controlled by Satoshi and wont ever be used. That presumption could prove incorrect one day but my guess is not. My guess on Ripple is the value 'locked up' will resolve to benefit the company, AFAIK that is the stated plan.

US dollar is a system that benefits the central government, they control the value in their own favour. Not the people, the holders or users but the government and/or issuer of dollars themselves. Plenty of people use that system like I guess Ripple could be useful while resolving in favour of the controlling party, but it wont especially make those users richer as its closer to a form of tax not true capitalism.
Thats my point of view but it used to be common in crypto to also find a lot of people who think dollar is a flawed failing system, not suitable as a world reserve currency which it is currently.

Heres one of the contributors to Bitcoin code in a long winded criticism of Ripple
https://youtu.be/mQKxSVLLfAk?t=2334
https://github.com/petertodd

Heres a book on why centralised value undermines capitalist systems. The only chance for Bitcoin or other crypto to make sense longer term is that it enables capitalism globally especially in countries with potentially high growth rates that flounder outside the west. That is the greater purpose otherwise its just a digital token and it'll be surpassed as a lot of technology is, its not copyrighted after all.


Economist on Swiss currency peg and its 'failure'
https://www.economist.com/blogs/economist-explains/2015/01/economist-explains-13

That was big news in Forex, in theory big profits possible betting on Swiss and shorting Euro. Economist is where I read about the banking failures in March 2008, before it even happened especially. Read it and forgot about it, I never found the article in searching back for it though but it referenced Exters triangle and liquidity reversal effects which features in every FED speech I guess

 

[Trusty]

It started as a centralised system, it's not going to be by the end of the finished product.
https://twitter.com/joelkatz/status/947211511184875521?lang=en

Bitcoin doesn't solve any real world problems as such, that's not to say there won't be value in it, I can see it as a store of wealth for the time being, ultimately it's a technological antique. It'll also be more centralised eventually, that's in the white paper basically.

Thanks for the link, seen it many times, never read it though. Yes, definitely I agree with the main points about a centralised system, the US being in debt and the world reserve currency being the dollar is a problem.
That's very much an argument for a neutral party to provide a liquidity asset for the high growth rate countries, it's very much what Ripple is going after. It's not just 3rd world countries as well that benefit, 1st world country liquidity problems are solved also, certainly made more efficient. Swift - 3 to 5 days, Ripple - less than a 4 seconds..

 

[silversurfer]

I hope bitcoin isnt going to end up centralised because it will be a failure, possibly it does have a tendency towards this but also the protocol is not entirely fixed. It cant be an antique while still alive and changing, thats the real test to navigate hurdles

Utlimately I expect BTC to be superseded by some standard but apparently its not that easy. Ripple is a short circuit, its very fast so kudos if they get profits from it but I dont see its an advancement over Dollar which is also a digital currency. Read about some self made Irish billionaires who handle the payment system behind Apple, maybe Ripple equates to that and who am I to criticise but its not for the world commerce overall or at least I hope not.
The actual coin distribution benefits the company and its partners afaik, its stacked in a significantly different way and I do take the point when some say its not crypto currency. Just like BCC was very different, its an ongoing dynamic. IOTA has a lot of big partners I think, very much not finished but I'd rather read on that

sold some Kaz. Its something I bought a number of times, too high a price initally but also near the lows so Im up overall just reducing size. I'm bullish on gold price and generally a weaker dollar but also this is not in a democratic country and I was over balanced. I really need to study more on the company and its best to reduce some.

ACA is gloomy as can be but underlying that its not awful imo, $530 cost of mining per ounce is it, pretty good. Bit of a gamble though

 

[Trusty]

I'm not sure how you can disagree with the centralisation part. You do realise that 90% of bitcoin is mined by just a few people? Why has this happened? Because there is an incentive to mine. There is no monetary incentive to be a ripple node, and it's going to stay that way, that's how you get proper decentralisation.
The dollar is not a digital asset, like, what? The dollar is a piece of paper, remove the government backed fiat, and it's worthless. Ripple has actually real world usage, such a massive difference..

https://www.finextra.com/blogposting/15083/ripple-is-making-blockchain-waves

 

[silversurfer]

The physical part of the dollar is not significant or its definition. They did have silver coins but its disconnected now. Dollar is digital, the vast majority of its monetary base circulates as figures on a balance sheet like the Federal reserve assets or various government departments or the Trillions in debt tied to a 4 year average rolling term. UK has 13 years average to repay debt

I should post sources more then just what I remember but I'm pretty sure the other side to crypto is vs dollar its surprisingly competitive. This is what caught people off guard, the weighting of #1 currency vs some imaginary digital token.
They are comparable, USD is compromised by a need to constantly print to service debts. BTC has a liability in the miners and the fees and their costs. I do prefer Proof of Stake over Proof of work because its cheaper, this efficiency argument could bring down BTC and elevate Ripple I'll agree on that much. BTC carries a lot of miners with its idea and Ripple just cuts all that out and controls it centrally

Spoiler

1 trillion or so of US notes or paper circulated.
20 trillion US national debt and far more is contained on balance sheets. I'm pretty sure I can support the argument USD is a digital centralised currency
https://www.federalreserve.gov/faqs/currency_12773.htm
http://www.usdebtclock.org/


This whole digital worth vs physical is why I'm bullish on gold or just commodities in general. They are undervalued vs FIAT debt. The rates of interest returned on FIAT are lowest for decades.
Doesnt have to be about crypto, its a big argument decades long and all of us happen to be at the end or near to the tail end of that cycle afaik. BTC being a fixed standard vs dollar liable to serve political debt is part of what drives pricing.

https://www.economist.com/news/fina...-interest-rates-decades-may-not-save-taxpayer

 

[dowie]

A digital currency is a currency only available in digital form. USD is not a digital currency.

 

[Trusty]

snipp

It's not an digital asset. It only has worth because the government back it, if you remove that, you have a piece of paper, that's it, nothing of any intrinsic value. Ripple has extremely complicated software behind it, that's why it's an asset and the dollar is not.

I agree about the POS v POW though, yes, POW is continually causing headaches.

 

[Irish_Tom]

I'm currently down 2.3% — I'm not going to panic sell just yet as this is a long-term investment.

I think it's more painful because I was up that much just a few days ago, an almost 5% swing feels worse, even if they were only paper gains!

I'm back in the black — admittedly not by much but it's always better than a loss.

 

[peterwalkley]

@Cromulent IG Index offer an API at https://labs.ig.com/ and it has .NET bindings for C#. The underlying API is all REST based, so implementing Python would not be hard either. Note that their data download limits are quite tight, so for historic data I tend to use https://www.quandl.com/ who are much more generous.
.
If all you want to do is data scrapes, go with quandl. If you want to automate trades, you'll need something like IG index.

Google and yahoo also provide some data, but every so often muck around with their API's or change the rules on you. Best avoided imo.

Update for others who might be scraping data: quandl removed free access to London stock exchange data at the end of January, cheapest access is $60 a month for a single user. The only free one now I can see that provides a documented API is https://www.alphavantage.co/ Yahoo data is gone and google watches for you scraping and cuts you off if they detect too many requests.

 

[dowie]

also make sure not to mention scraping in the programming subform, some people get triggered and want to go off topic with a load of mouth frothing arguments about it being 'illegal' etc..

 

[peterwalkley]

also make sure not to mention scraping in the programming subform, some people get triggered and want to go off topic with a load of mouth frothing arguments about it being 'illegal' etc..

Good point. 'Downloading' would have been a better word to use in this context. Alphavantage and quandl publish API's to support it, so perfectly legal under their terms of service.

Yahoo and Google *used* to support it by giving relatively easy access to CSV and JSON downloads with a suitably crafted URL but no longer and, although you can jump through a few hoops with cookies etc to get at it, anything more than a few sets of data and you will hit technical restrictions (like blocked access) long before the lawyers get triggered.