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Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Discussion in 'General Discussion' started by mcast123, Apr 2, 2009.

  1. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,552

    Wait for it, there'll be blood in the streets in the not too distant future. I'm quite happy sitting out. The question is will we get a small pullback before resuming the stupidity, or will it be the big one. The longer this goes on the more it feels like it's going to be a whopper that reverberates around the global economy.
     
  2. booyaka

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jan 19, 2006

    Posts: 13,036

    Doing a lot of annual reviews for clients this week and numbers are mental....way in to double digit returns for low to medium risk clients.

    Very odd times as it's rare for equities and gold price both to be rising at the same time. They are "normally" the polar opposite of each other.
     
  3. Richdog

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 8, 2005

    Posts: 24,498

    Location: Utopia

    Well it's easy to say you are happy sitting out, but the current price is $50 so an investment of 50k would have netted you 250k... that is an insane return. And yes, I know hindsight is 20/20 but when it hit $9 it was clear it was way undervalued.
     
  4. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,552

    Not talking about AMD specifically. I rode it from about 12 to 30 so do alright.

    Securities are firmly into irrational greed territory now and the actual performance of AMD is going to be moot when the markets fall apart.

    Some good buying opportunities coming up though, as long as you get out before you get cleaned out.
     
  5. macuser

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 3, 2004

    Posts: 631

    Maybe a slight correction is due but nothing like 2008 I hope!! I had thought about selling up in the summer as I felt something was brewing, I'm just glad I didn't sit the that 6 months out. Just keep off social media as all the 'experts' reckon a crash is coming. The same 'experts' still buying into AMD and Tesla.
     
  6. uncle_rufus

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 14, 2011

    Posts: 4,241

    Another Vanguard question - are people investing through Vanguard directly or through a different broker like the article linked above mentioned? (share.com in that case)
     
  7. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,552

    It doesn't take an expert to know a big correction is coming, anyone glancing at the major indices and with a little knowledge of current affairs can see that. Calling the timing is the tricky part :)

    Personally I think vested interests will keep it going until Trump gets a second term.

    Even so, it won't take much of a shock to trigger the collapse. Everyone's just sat waiting confident they can get out before everyone else right now. Not going to end well.
     
  8. macuser

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 3, 2004

    Posts: 631

    I agree with you that something is coming but a collapse I'm not so sure. It's going to take a little more than knowledge of current affairs to call that :) You're probably correct that nothing will happen till after the presidential election.

    Don't limit yourself to just Vanguard funds, use another platform that will let you invest in Vanguard funds as well as other more suitable funds, obviously depending on what you are investing for.
     
    Last edited: Jan 18, 2020
  9. uncle_rufus

    Mobster

    Joined: Mar 14, 2011

    Posts: 4,241

    Any tips on choosing one? Expect it's quite the rabbit hole! I will have a search around though
     
  10. Azza

    Caporegime

    Joined: Dec 6, 2005

    Posts: 35,253

    Location: Birmingham

  11. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,056

    I think every time the market rises for a bit people are out with their vague claims of a correction... it gets a bit meaningless - the market might go down at some unspecified point in the future, might not be a crash or anything and it might well go up quite a lot more still before this apparent correction happens etc...

    Unless you're able to accurately forecast or predict these things (spoiler alert hardly anyone can, including plenty of hedge fund types - if you could you'd have such a huge edge and would be seriously wealthy) then it becomes meaningless.

    I'd be wary of letting personal political views cloud judgement here too, orange man bad, Brexit etc.. doesn't necessarily translate into market going down - for example:

    [​IMG]

    We all know Trump is an idiot, it doesn't necessarily mean you should take such drastic action or get too carried away w.r.t him being elected or Brexit happening etc... etc..

    For the ordinary investor it's probably better to avoid attempting market timing - someone posted a fairly straightforward video giving a no nonsense explanation of this a while back (I think @Raymond Lin IIRC). Non specific/vague claims that we're due a correction and then staying out as a result are probably a waste of time at best, if not actually damaging to your wealth with regards to your long term investments, historically buy and hold has done well regardless.
     
  12. dowie

    Caporegime

    Joined: Jan 29, 2008

    Posts: 47,056

    Post mentioned in the above re: market timing:

     
  13. triggerthat

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 26, 2005

    Posts: 6,861

    Location: London

    Hi there,

    Been doing some research in the last few weeks around investment (headache inducing) and some tips would be greatly appreciated. Am 34 and got a mortgage of £130,000 @ circa 2.5%.

    Got a SIPP with HL (most of the funds are with Blackrock 85 - currently averaging 4% per year last 3 years). I also have 2 other funds (small balance) from Wealth 50 which are doing really well (7%). Currently paying 7% into my current workplace pension (Royal London) but looking to increase this to 15% and eventually 20% by end of the year. Hoping it hit 1M fund for retirement.

    Question: how can I optimise this? Is this the best investment fund and how can I best diversify? I think BR85 is a more middle-ground investment fund (vs. something like equity).

    I've got some cash that I'm looking to invest and it looks like a stocks/shares ISA is the way to go for me. HL provide this but their fees are quite high (0.45%).

    Where do I go from here (which platform/fund etc?). Looking to lock away funds long-term (25+ years). I've been hearing about Vanguard a lot and general feedback from YouTube is mutual funds are the way to go. Some general tips/recommendations would help.
     
  14. Fusion

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 18, 2002

    Posts: 10,299

    Location: Notts

    Dowie is right, the calls on market corrections get a bit tiresome. A broken clock is right twice a day. Most timing calls are wrong, plain and simple.

    Regular investments (pound/dollar cost averaging) are fine for most people. Compound gains are going to wipe out shorter terms fluctuations.

    Anyway, corrections can be a good thing. If you felt that share was a solid buy at £6 for example, guess what you should do when it drops to £4?
     
  15. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,552

    I wouldn't suggest anyone stay out on my word :p

    I need my capital right now for a house purchase and I can't risk the correction happening before I do that, so taking the chance on continuing to ride this wave is not consistent with my risk profile right now.

    The market has not been rising for 'a bit'. It's been going on for years. We've had several rounds of "hmm this is getting out of hand" followed by a short pullback, then surging ahead to new record highs. It doesn't take Nostradamus to know it isn't sustainable. That tweet should be ringing alarm bells....the Dow doubling in a few years.....hmm.

    Maybe it will be sustained as long as we have zero interest rates. Maybe Iran will hit back at the US and trigger a meltdown. Who knows. It's fun to compare predictions though.

    If I was a betting man, I'd say the big selloff will come in the wake of the US elections, probably very soon after.
     
  16. Uther

    Capodecina

    Joined: Jun 16, 2005

    Posts: 12,103

    He talks a lot of sense. Thanks, I'd missed that vid before.
     
  17. Richdog

    Capodecina

    Joined: Sep 8, 2005

    Posts: 24,498

    Location: Utopia

    Such as?
     
  18. mid_gen

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 20, 2004

    Posts: 9,552

    When the inevitable big correction happens.
     
  19. Russinating

    Capodecina

    Joined: Dec 27, 2005

    Posts: 15,857

    Location: Bristol

  20. macuser

    Hitman

    Joined: Feb 3, 2004

    Posts: 631

    I got out at 14.9 bought at 18.2, could've been a lot worse although biggest loss I've had for a while. I know a couple of people lost a small fortune, everybody including myself coming from the area. I think the takeover offer is a **** take. Keep a close eye on Anglo American.