Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

This guys always fun, the yellowstone volcano edition of hedgefund managers :cool:



Good point on AAPL
its out of line, likely we dont finish correction till a few more get in line with it.
 
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413x said:
Is got a long way to go down.
Surprised by the early week increase Myself .

Is resumed its decent
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Not surprised there was small bounce as the 'this is a buying opportunity' mugs piled in.

Just bad news for the next few months. Case numbers increasing. Deaths increasing, including big names, politicians, business people etc. Real economic data starts coming showing the cost. More companies collapsing, especially in travel and hospitality industries.

That's assuming we don't get civil unrest adding to the problems.
 
mid_gen said:
Not surprised there was small bounce as the 'this is a buying opportunity' mugs piled in.

Just bad news for the next few months. Case numbers increasing. Deaths increasing, including big names, politicians, business people etc. Real economic data starts coming showing the cost. More companies collapsing, especially in travel and hospitality industries.

That's assuming we don't get civil unrest adding to the problems.
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I see the way this works. Stay quiet in the thread while the market behaves differently to how you predicted, then return once events "confirm" your predictions.

Of course, doom mongers can't lose because if the market is down, they're right. If the market rises, everyone is too busy making money to think about some random guys' predictions weeks or months ago. This is why most macro forecasting is a waste of time. The prediction reliability is so low as to be almost worthless.
 
Fusion said:
I see the way this works. Stay quiet in the thread while the market behaves differently to how you predicted, then return once events "confirm" your predictions.

Of course, doom mongers can't lose because if the market is down, they're right. If the market rises, everyone is too busy making money to think about some random guys' predictions weeks or months ago. This is why most macro forecasting is a waste of time. The prediction reliability is so low as to be almost worthless.
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It's been a busy week....I can check in more often if you like?

I've done alright off the tech stock bull run, not a doom monger by any means. I just believe the bull run was sustained by little more than greed and low interest rates, with very little to do with the underlying health or prospects of the businesses and economies they are dependent upon. This epidemic is just the thing to tip the markets into a much more serious correction.

It would be a very boring thread if we weren't allowed to talk about market trends don't you think?
 
Who cares if the markets tank in the short term, 12 months time we will be back to where we were, history constantly repeats itself, all you need to look at is the ftse all share 5 year chart.

The stock market goes through cycles just like up down up down.
 
Bounce said:
Who cares if the markets tank in the short term, 12 months time we will be back to where we were, history constantly repeats itself, all you need to look at is the ftse all share 5 year chart.
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Fair enough if all you're interested in is being in the same place in 12 months time. Some of us are interested in being in a better position in 12 months, so the ups and downs are interesting.
 
Fusion said:
I see the way this works. Stay quiet in the thread while the market behaves differently to how you predicted, then return once events "confirm" your predictions.

Of course, doom mongers can't lose because if the market is down, they're right. If the market rises, everyone is too busy making money to think about some random guys' predictions weeks or months ago. This is why most macro forecasting is a waste of time. The prediction reliability is so low as to be almost worthless.
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The bounce was very odd. I didn't see that one coming. (great for day traders) but fully expected it to resume downward pressure.

I hope it doesn't crash. That's not good for anyone but a select few.
 
I've certainly got my short positions sorted for the upcoming week, the rate cut was expected but i thought the market might take the bait, looks like it hasn't, not unexpectedly either though considering this really does look like its going to effect loads of other countries really badly. There was a small but hopeful chance that it could be contained, but with Italy exploding over the weekend, it doesn't look like its going to be the case. This is a pandemic which is going to dampen the economy for the next 12 months at least.

Lots of opportunities to make a lot of money now, strap yourself in lads..

Will be interesting to see when CB's step in and start buying everything up..

Brent Crude is at $35 :eek:
 
What's the chances that Amazon, Apple, Google and Microsoft eat up significant portions of the market? Or are they going to take a moment to streamline themselves?
 
StriderX said:
I mean all these companies are investing in other industries to diversify, does this continue with such large companies in this bloodbath or do they go on an efficiency drive?
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I don't know what you mean by efficiency drive. If you are asking whether or not the share price of these companies will drop along with the broader market, then yes, shares are just a market of perceived value by the people that own them. Those companies are not going to meet their revenue and profit expectations this quarter, so investors will continue to dump them. The US tech stocks are way more overvalued than most anyway, so the drop is going to be even steeper for them.

One of my short positions is actually the US tech stock index.

Out of those companies, Google potentially might not fall as much though, that's because their products don't rely on supply chains like Amazon, but they both have different ways that they make profit. Amazon relies on supply chains and tangible products, they will experience a bigger drop in profits than Google, although AWS is large part of Amazon's profit, i don't know what percentage it is
 
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Trusty said:
I don't know what you mean by efficiency drive. If you are asking whether or not the share price of these companies will drop along with the broader market, then yes, shares are just a market of perceived value by the people that own them. Those companies are not going to meet their revenue and profit expectations this quarter, so investors will continue to dump them. The US tech stocks are way more overvalued than most anyway, so the drop is going to be even steeper for them.

One of my short positions is actually the US tech stock index.
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Hmm, I meant whether they are going to use their immense stockpiles of cash to buy bargains or are they going to cut staffing, I suppose both are mutually exclusive tasks, but still. I don't really know what they focus on in times like this.
 
StriderX said:
Hmm, I meant whether they are going to use their immense stockpiles of cash to buy bargains or are they going to cut staffing, I suppose both are mutually exclusive tasks, but still.
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Depends on the overall market conditions, if this a great depression scenario that lasts 3/4 years, then Amazon would no doubt fire staff in a bid to keep operating profits safe, we're not there yet. Like you said, Amazon does have massive pile of cash that they can rely on, but if it starts eating into their threshold of what they feel comfortably to have in reserves, then they will start cutting the fat

https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/AMZN/summary
 
Sold my SPY puts on Friday, in hindsight would have been better holding onto them until today if we’re down at open as much as futures suggest.

Don’t think I’m going to buy more today - with this volatility prices will be high - maybe write some calls instead.
 
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