Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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Oh I dunno, Income tax. Why people accept consumption taxes up the bottom, but scream bloody murder on income is beyond me.
Indeed. I was surprised too when I learned their "break even" figure was so high. Their economy is so reliant on oil/gas though- while they can produce it really cheaply, they still need to be able to sell it for a relatively high price to balance the countries books.
They're just playing politics at the moment and probably know the low price is short term.
You cut someone's paycheck, and they feel like you're taking something from them. Things being more expensive doesn't trigger the same emotional response.
I still looking to buy good divi paying shares with sensible potential for long term growth also. Looking at Shell, BP, Lloyds, Barclays, SSE, Aviva etc
I held back a week ago when they began to tumble. Happy I did as they have dropped so much last 7-10 days.
I know it’s impossible to guess the bottom. But what’s the general consensus with you guys for the coming weeks?
Will drop more?
I held back a week ago when they began to tumble. Happy I did as they have dropped so much last 7-10 days.
I know it’s impossible to guess the bottom. But what’s the general consensus with you guys for the coming weeks?
Will drop more?
I didn't look at my shares all last week as thought the adage, time in the market beats timing the market but looking at it today really worries me and makes me think that I should sell sell sell and hold cash for a while.
Though, that being said, I do like the idea of buying into gold and oil at the minute. Would a low cost ETF/ETC be the best way into this?
Though, that being said, I do like the idea of buying into gold and oil at the minute. Would a low cost ETF/ETC be the best way into this?
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You said it. How long's a piece of string? Make your decision on if the share represents good value to you. If you're buying for dividends, then you're going to be holding long term anyway, so shifts in price shouldn't matter as much. I bought some more Shell this morning. Doesn't matter to me what it going to do over the next few months. Considering Aviva too. Already have SSE and BP, not looking to top up on them, though BP is pretty cheap at the minute.
Watch the daily positive test numbers. Any evidence that it's being contained in Europe and the US could signal the bottom. However, I think it's unlikely to be happen, containment efforts are too little, too late.
I'd be quite tempted to buy some oil stocks today tbh, cartels playing silly buggers is short-term.
I understand that guessing the bottom is impossible. And for long term holding ‘time in the market is better than timing the market’ but surly buying when it’s low and eventually selling when it’s high puts you in a much better position.
If you buy high and sell low then surly ‘time in the market’ analogy does not work out!?
If you know when the top is and the bottom is, then you must have a crystal ball.
Of course that analogy doesn't work out if you a mystical ability to time the markets. But for 99.9999% of individuals, leave the investment alone at times like this. Trying to chase markets, time markets, switch funds around to take advantage of what you perceive to be the "next best thing" at times like this is madness.
Pension money is normally invested for the long term for most people - 10/15/20 years - Remember why you invested in certain funds or stocks, have those reasons changed? Unlikely.
Unless you are "trading" - leave your investments/pensions alone.
My clients know the story - I've had zero calls this morning from my clients despite the FTSE crash this morning. Because they understand that there is nothing I can do for them just now whilst the markets are like this. They know via our long standing discussions and relationships that the investment fundamentals, the funds themselves, are still good solid investments. The markets are spooked, things look bleak, but what am I going to do for them just now? Move it all to cash and then "hope" I time the markets on the bounce? Never going to happen.
Leave it alone for now.
I topped up on Shell earlier, and the yield was 10.47%. Just bought some Aviva- 9.74%. Current P/E for Aviva is 5.38. Last year's profits were very good. 5-year P/E is 8.48, which is still really low, and makes it good value in my book.
How long are you wanting to invest for? Can you risk losing the money? How well do you understand the companies/markets, and financial/investing fundamentals?
I was rightly called out here for just talking about dividend yield as a headline figure. You should be looking at other factors- book value, cash reserves, dividend cover, debt levels, etc. The more you can know and understand, the better.
If you're investing for the long term, today is quite conceivably a buying opporunity because investments are at a discount to last week's prices. Buffet stuffed $45m into Delta Airlines last week and their shares are down something like 20% YTD. If you're trying to time the market, investing today could be a bad idea as markets could drop another 10% or more over the course of this week.
'Time in the market is better than trying to time the market' is an adage that should be used to convince people to take a longer term view for their investments. It's accepted wisdom (or, more accurately, trite) for investors who have already accepted a medium-to-long term investment horizon.
Best bet imo is to drip feed money into markets right now. If markets go down, you're getting cheaper and cheaper entry points with each staggered investment. If markets pick up 3%, you're still getting in cheaper than you would've done a month ago. The history of investment markets is nothing more than an intermittent timeline of crises that have been overcome. Ask yourself if that paradigm has materially shifted? If it has, then capitalism is dead and the concept of money is dead anyway.
"I know it's impossible to guess the bottom, but please guys on the internet, help me guess where the bottom is."
"I know I shouldn't try and time the market but now that the market is moving in way that isn't a steady upward curve I should probably try and time the market."
I love this thread.
It's pocket money, and more exciting that work!
For me, it's pretty theoretical. I'm just leaving everything alone and keep topping up my funds each month. But sometimes it's good to write stuff down to get a different perspective.
My contrasting point proves the point that you may as well just leave it alone and forget about it!
Soldato
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Russian attack vector on US shale gas prices ahead of the November election?
Russia wants Trump, not that they have to like him just dislike him less then the potential opposing party. He wants to pull back forces and Russia would really rather he did that. Trump isnt diplomatic or sauvy in any way, they can maneuver around any move he has far more easily.
Russia has a policy of reducing their holdings of US debt as does China I think, both are net buyers of gold for over a decade. USA should be using their own shale gas to enable cheap industry costs, I dont think they are and they have only just lifted an export ban so slow.
The marginal cost of Oil extraction and sale for Saudi is one of the cheapest in the world and the demand for their oil is fine. Venezuela despite the largest proven reserves in the world doesnt have this advantage, the oil is dirty and to some extent unwanted unusable till refined and the extraction not cheap, etc. without brains its a loss maker.
Free markets destroy inefficiency is my possibly overly idealistic view of why it can be so harsh.
So Saudi have everything to their advantage. The reason they sell shares in their national oil is the country has rapidly expanding population, they have to derisk and expand and utilise their population better in global business.
Demographics outweighs everything, politics, prices and any other factor is dictated by natural forces in the country so this is forcing their hand.
This is a heavily religious country and population growth in some parts of the world massively outweighs anything in the west, we barely replace our own parents or worse. That relates to GDP, to fiscal budgets, infrastructure, monetary policy all sorts.
The figure for Saudi cost is going to be tied to a large number of other factors, thats the figure being quoted. They really do require oil to be somewhere near to $100 to enable their fiscal budget, their threats and ive not read much but they arent bluffing imo Iran also has a terrible problem here.
The dollar value being of questionable value long term also is troubling to them. If Saudi stopped backing Dollar and were to tie themselves to another standard that'd be a giant change in the world. USA still imports energy even after its growth and they do require the dollar reserve subsidy to their debt.
Best thing to do is not read my second hand explanation but on alphaville there is lots of good articles discussing longer term factors, the price today changing so rapidly is just volatility + jarring demand falls from virus, less planes, etc
You wont get the bottom and you dont have to. All those shares are in FT100 so buy the fund that holds them all for you. The product isnt less valid from a cheaper price, I just think of it like a supermarket with the label for ingredients etc actually more important
Boring advice, buy regularly on a set schedule, hold 5 years with no expectation of pay off before then. Ideally reinvest dividends imo, thats the one thing that saved me on my poor timing on 2001 to 2003 period I was in profit when I sold even with my seemingly bad entry.
I know someone who held a tech fund from '97 I think right through 2001, terrible really and I told them to sell BT spiking at least but quarter of a century later it registered 3200% higher, the underlying idea to go long tech sector was valid long term. So really I just want to be in the right place, every pricing detail isnt so important.
Lower oil helps some industry with costs, we the people never see the benefits as 90% of petrol is tax not the commodity but companies do benefit.
long gold long agriculture, long volatility so I do think IGG benefits though I guess its not as cheap as last summer but this news makes it cheaper relative to likely revenue occurring on this volume.
Seekingalpha is always chucking articles in my inbox and RNS digest , just requires to register what tickers you follow. Still needs your own judgement but its helpful imo.
https://seekingalpha.com/article/43...campaign=rta-stock-article&utm_content=link-0
Wait until liquidity dries up again with the amount of corporate debt out there now. The Fed had better be warming up their cash printing machines
Credit markets getting twitchy.
https://www.marketwatch.com/story/c...s-as-coronavirus-slams-wall-street-2020-03-08
The US just recently slapped tariffs on Rosneft, which is owned by one of Putin's close friends. Putin doesn't give a hoot about Trump or whoever is President, he wants a White House that will not interfere with his agenda. He's also been on record multiple times in the past criticising fracking and shale gas.
You're laughing if you think he can't get around these sanctions, but that's neither here not there regarding stocks.