Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
What you looking to get into?
It may not be fool proof, but it certainly limits options.
Nothing as yet.
But a safe (ish) long term dividend seems like a good aim.
I'm guessing that means a bank/utility of some description
I'd be looking at biotech companies that are creating Covid19 vaccines personally.
AMGN
GILD
MRNA
Edit..
I did put INO in there, but doing some recent more reading about it, there is a couple of articles that have just come out that dont put it in good light..
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Well, I take a long term view, and my money is managed for me (which is probably not popular), but I am currently 8.77% down on my highs of 6 weeks ago, which I consider a win in the current circumstances. My IFA has always told me that you make money in the dips, because if you can fall less than the average, you will end up higher on the peaks.
What about aviva? As a very safe play?
Sounds about right. I'm my own worst client in that my portfolio is balls to the wall equities and since 1st Feb I'm down 7.75% as of yesterday's pricing. Most clients are down closer to 2-3% over the same period in much less risky portfolios. The best part is the only phone call I've had is from a client yesterday who was adamant she wanted to top up her investments lol.
Amazing how 'stay the course' falters when there's a bump in the road. Only problem is that this is not a bump, but likely a downturn.
Tell me: if there is community transmission of the virus in the UK (confirmed by .Gov), the government saying 'within 10-14 days' it will be widespread, and the supply/demand chain being significantly impacted, how is this going anywhere but down short term?
Long term, time in the market yada yada, probably remains the case. Are you willing to go through it? Are you willing to see 40% of your portfolio gone? If no, then your asset allocation was too aggressive, and you don't have the stomach for it (neither do I).
Reappraise your configuration if this week's events have unsettled you. I think more pain is on the way - I'm open to alternative hypotheses but the trend seems fairly set now. Of course, if you are still buying all the way down - happy days!
Tell me: if there is community transmission of the virus in the UK (confirmed by .Gov), the government saying 'within 10-14 days' it will be widespread, and the supply/demand chain being significantly impacted, how is this going anywhere but down short term?
Long term, time in the market yada yada, probably remains the case. Are you willing to go through it? Are you willing to see 40% of your portfolio gone? If no, then your asset allocation was too aggressive, and you don't have the stomach for it (neither do I).
Reappraise your configuration if this week's events have unsettled you. I think more pain is on the way - I'm open to alternative hypotheses but the trend seems fairly set now. Of course, if you are still buying all the way down - happy days!
Have to say, I'm hovering over the buy button atm.
But it's a damn big risk. I'm not sure how much damage has been priced in.
If Italy's figures start reducing it could be beginning of the upturn.. If it gets worse, no telling how low it can go
Me too. Prices have generally gone up today and it's easy to think you're missing out but sense tells me to wait as this is a blip like last Monday.
In the face of exponentially increasing case numbers, I can't see any short term upside. I don't see any evidence that we are going to avoid an epidemic in the UK or US.
At the very least, the first concrete economic data indicating the cost is going to be another leg down.
You need to put the falls into perspective as well. The Nasdaq is only back to where it was in November. Is the outlook comparable to what it was in November?
I don't think the fundamentals agree with that hypothesis, personally, but I am an eternal optimist.
COVID-19 is deadly almost exclusively in the over 65 age cohort, i.e. largely economically inactive members of society. China is claiming that factories are now back up to around 80% of their productive capacity prior to the virus outbreak (and yes, China numbers lol, but Xi Jinping is visiting Wuhan which is meaningful). Italy has the second oldest population in the world and therefore the most susceptible to fatalities, they're also a bit-player in the global economy. Trump has promised stimulus to help the US economy weather the impact of the virus there. Yesterday's bloodbath was more to do with oil prices than anything coronavirus related (Shell and BP were down 20% at one point, Premier Oil was down 50%). None of what is happening in the news points to any kind of fundamental weakness in global investment markets in my opinion. Global GDP is undoubtedly going to be lower than expected, but not negative.
I keep looking for something that I have missed, thinking that I'm being a blithering idiot but I just can't seem to find the weak link.
If it gets a hold in the USA then it will freefall again. I dont think markets will settle until we see what happens there TBH.
errm, if it's for div, then just be weary that they'll keep the 10% going, especially if this is a prolonged bear market. But overall its a decent company to have..
Might be worth finding out the trend in cash reserves over the last 3 years..
The tangible book and graham number is very favourable...
https://www.gurufocus.com/stock/AVVIY/summary
Its what Warren Buffet uses to invest basically, value investing..
edit. Just looking at the charts there, major support areas at 2.9 & 2.6
I'd be waiting til you get a proper turnaround before buying, because if those levels don't hold, the next major support is 1.5. If you buy at 2.9, and it breaks through the support in a couple of weeks time, you could lose half your money.
Proper turnaround would be decent general macro environment being favourable ( covid19) and a solid accumulation period (sideways trading) and buying monthly candles.
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It's already happening in the oil sector, google corporate debt and oil industry, plenty of good articles
Gonna hold our for a bit .
I think it will recover above this point within a year, so it's no loss if I miss the bottom.
Going to pay a lot of attention to news coming in. At least the cash is there to react now
China appears on top of the crisis, its very tentative about the west though
Tempted to put half in now half in later
I think it will recover above this point within a year, so it's no loss if I miss the bottom.
Going to pay a lot of attention to news coming in. At least the cash is there to react now
China appears on top of the crisis, its very tentative about the west though
Tempted to put half in now half in later