Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
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I personally wouldn't, the FED already cut rates, it hasn't done **** for the market, don't get suckered into the relief rallies. It's going down tomorrow i think, making a new low for the year. This will continue until the FED come in with some QE or something, not sure what they have planned, but keep your eye out for what they plan on doing.
Soldato
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Put in monthly for the rest of the year. Cost average it out. I'm not changing my ISA contributions, may increase them.
Pointless.
Soldato
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Push that string harder!
US due to open a few percent down again.
I'm hoping to start building some stock investments so this recent activity has been really interesting to watch (and from a selfish point of view a great way of knocking prices down).
Looking at the FTSE we've seen quite a shocking past 3 weeks and so far today the market appears to be undecided on what it is doing. A lot of this movement is tied to the value of the US dollar which appears to be gaining on some losses which isn't quite translating through to stock values.
Generally it looks like the bias is still a majority of long positions which is likely what is propping up the overall value.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the FTSE drop through the recent lows on it's way down to 4800/4900 but I guess we're all looking to see what happens in America and how Coronavirus pans out there.
Looking at the FTSE we've seen quite a shocking past 3 weeks and so far today the market appears to be undecided on what it is doing. A lot of this movement is tied to the value of the US dollar which appears to be gaining on some losses which isn't quite translating through to stock values.
Generally it looks like the bias is still a majority of long positions which is likely what is propping up the overall value.
I wouldn't be surprised to see the FTSE drop through the recent lows on it's way down to 4800/4900 but I guess we're all looking to see what happens in America and how Coronavirus pans out there.
Once the real numbers from the US and Europe start coming in, the thing will cut in half.
There's obviously a lot of actual risk assessment involved, but so much of it is emotional too and once people see the extent of what's coming, they'll run.
There's obviously a lot of actual risk assessment involved, but so much of it is emotional too and once people see the extent of what's coming, they'll run.
Soldato
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He is down 34% ? If he is close to pension age that could be too much risk on the table there. Price is nothing vs performance but reflects expectations and everyone is afraid to disagree and obviously FTSE is weighted more strongly to commodities then SP500. I'm down 11% on FTSE from last year (which wasnt an ideal buy but neither expensive either) but I will continue to switch some of that today to a gold fund which retracted (nicely, for buying) despite good margins of gold vs oil. I'll rebuy the FTSE anyhow
Risk apparent should not be your greatest fear seems to be a continual lesson market demonstrates.
Similar to 2008, I was actually short FTSE in autumn 2008 and I remember feeling very grave as I had let the market close friday with that short going through to Monday a big risk. And I didnt hold to the bottom because (it was reasonable to run it tbh, penny wise pound foolish) it flies up then back down, etc. its quite destructive when it does that.
This isnt 2008 though, big clue then was UUP spiking which surprised many and strong dollar caused them problems.
GBP should recover imo but its not strong as such. vs YEN I was thinking GBP should rise, Central bank of Japan has built debt to 300% of GDP, it should collapse so I see that as some long term measure to how far down the yellow brick road we are. Yen is still safe haven
Mentions BP a few times
'It ain't what you don't know that gets you into trouble. It's what you know for sure that just ain't so. '
Risk apparent should not be your greatest fear seems to be a continual lesson market demonstrates.
Richter graph, true volatility is a force of nature. Governments & FED ECB BOE vs real events are passengers just like us in the final count imo.
Similar to 2008, I was actually short FTSE in autumn 2008 and I remember feeling very grave as I had let the market close friday with that short going through to Monday a big risk. And I didnt hold to the bottom because (it was reasonable to run it tbh, penny wise pound foolish) it flies up then back down, etc. its quite destructive when it does that.
This isnt 2008 though, big clue then was UUP spiking which surprised many and strong dollar caused them problems.
GBP should recover imo but its not strong as such. vs YEN I was thinking GBP should rise, Central bank of Japan has built debt to 300% of GDP, it should collapse so I see that as some long term measure to how far down the yellow brick road we are. Yen is still safe haven
Mentions BP a few times
He's about 73 and well past pension age. Sadly he's an old man with too much money and not enough knowledge of financial markets so has a habit of just buying shares based on tips!
He also doesn't seem to listen to me when i suggest he mitigate risk.
Soldato
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I have no doubt stocks will get cheaper in the near term but one way to look at the FTSE is that it's back to around the Y2K highs. The FTSE is pretty low already vs some other markets, notably the US indices which even after the current fall is probably x2 the Y2K price.
Investments (vs speculation) should always be for the long term. Nothing is guaranteed but even buying here, in 5+ years time stocks will likely be higher. However, I'd not recommend buying right here as I think lower prices are guaranteed BUT buying in blocks as the price falls isn't a bad strategy.Dividends should be considered too vs now falling interest rates.
I think this whole thing could blow over fairly quickly. I won't be too surprised to see a fast recovery when it does happen. Markets tend to overreact in both direction. There's a lot of fear and panicking out there. Some stocks are already at bargain prices IMO. China as a country is getting back up to speed already (getting back to normal). This isn't a doomsday scenario. The markets will bounce back and people will probably think "ah, this wasn't too bad after all", many of them probably buying back shares higher than where they sold during the panic
.I'm not wholly convinced COVID-19 is behind the fall. It was the trigger but I don't believe is the reason, if that makes sense. The market was looking for a reason to correct. US markets particularly were and still are very high. If not COVID-19 thensometing else would have triggered a fall fairly soon.
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I agree, now is not a bad time to buy, but I think there is scope for a better price (for many but not all).
I used to trade Forex when I was younger so definitely understand how markets react and those with less of a long term plan can get spooked and sell up causing things to snowball.
There's a concern with Europe I would think. Italy already had some unstable banking issues and a total lock-down isn't going to help their economic outlook. Whilst relatively small, when added to the German outlook relaxing on their tight spending control over fear of recession we could see the Euro markets take some long term stagnation.
....but then....some pre-existing medication may prove effective against Covid-19 and then we'll just go right back to where we were with a redistribution of wealth somewhere whilst trading desks enjoy their commissions.
I used to trade Forex when I was younger so definitely understand how markets react and those with less of a long term plan can get spooked and sell up causing things to snowball.
There's a concern with Europe I would think. Italy already had some unstable banking issues and a total lock-down isn't going to help their economic outlook. Whilst relatively small, when added to the German outlook relaxing on their tight spending control over fear of recession we could see the Euro markets take some long term stagnation.
....but then....some pre-existing medication may prove effective against Covid-19 and then we'll just go right back to where we were with a redistribution of wealth somewhere whilst trading desks enjoy their commissions.
Watching how the US ended its session, and with Pandemic status now in place, I am expecting another bloodbath on the LSE tomorrow.
I'm still into gaming stocks and GVC has been hammered due to sporting events potentially/ actually being cancelled I guess.
However with it going ex-div on a 5% yield on Friday plus I think 50% capital appreciation in the near- term (Minimum) I think it's not a bad looking buy right now.
Litigation financing like BUR, MANO, LIT has also been dragged down.. All tarred by the MW/ Burford brush, then hammered again by the general falls.... Another sector I am watching.
I'm still into gaming stocks and GVC has been hammered due to sporting events potentially/ actually being cancelled I guess.
However with it going ex-div on a 5% yield on Friday plus I think 50% capital appreciation in the near- term (Minimum) I think it's not a bad looking buy right now.
Litigation financing like BUR, MANO, LIT has also been dragged down.. All tarred by the MW/ Burford brush, then hammered again by the general falls.... Another sector I am watching.