Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)

Ev0 · 6 Apr 2020 at 12:54

Suffering from a little FOMO, if i'd bothered to do anything a couple of weeks ago on a couple of shares I'd been watching I'd have more than doubled my cash on one, and about a third on another

Would've been a total gamble at the time though!

BennyC · 6 Apr 2020 at 12:55

Skeptic said:
Because this event has an end. It's not based on some fundamental systemic problem; it's an illness that, in time, will go away. Whether there's 10 spikes or this is it, we know that it will end, and the markets may have priced that in. Why can't the economy pick up where it left off?

Does it look / feel like a deeper longer recession than 2008 has been priced in? (WTO)

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:09

platinum87 said:
Don't worry, you did not miss the bottom.

And yes, it is a fundamental systemic problem.

Maybe. Maybe not.

How is it a systemic problem? Has there been some fundamental shift in the way in which monetary policy works globally? Is there likely to be a restructuring of economic norms as a result of what is - essentially - a known quantity?

Opposing views are fine, and I respect your opinion. However, do you think that once this is dealt with, we are going to see a breakdown of a manufacturing and capitalist society? I don't. It might take a little while, but I don't think that human nature has changed as a result of a virus.

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:12

BennyC said:
Does it look / feel like a deeper longer recession than 2008 has been priced in? (WTO)

Do you think that industry will recover and things will revert to a mean? Will people still want the latest iPhone? Will people whose jobs have been furloughed return to employment assuming their business doesn't collapse?

I can't understand the lunacy of this whole thing. It's bad, I get it, I really do. However I can't see this as being a fundamental shift in the way the world works, and, in time, things will return to normal.

Check what people are saying around the world: it's not 'oh how ignorant was I, working hard to buy things, going out and spending money, I'll definitely stop that when this is over'. It's mostly 'can't wait for this to be over so I can go shopping, buy X, travel to Y' and so on. There's a coiled spring, in my view.

Fusion · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:18

Skeptic said:
I can't understand the lunacy of this whole thing. It's bad, I get it, I really do. However I can't see this as being a fundamental shift in the way the world works, and, in time, things will return to normal.

I agree. Obviously there's going to be short term trouble, but things will regress to the mean.

keylion · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:24

Ev0 said:
Suffering from a little FOMO, if i'd bothered to do anything a couple of weeks ago on a couple of shares I'd been watching I'd have more than doubled my cash on one, and about a third on another

Would've been a total gamble at the time though!

Same here. I took a concious desision to not buy as it seemed to me that the 10% daily drops on the shares I was watching my have slowed but showed no reason why they would suddenly ciimb. I missed out on some big rises, but can't be annoyed as the information available at the time didn't really show what was abot to happen.

I suppose the good thing about frip feeding money into shares is that you stand a chance of catching these rises.

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:24

Analysts have also correctly predicted 20 of the last 2 recessions!

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 13:57

Great, prudent conference call from Central Asia Metals (#CAML). Share price is down, but I've topped up. Quality company, quality management, excellent decision making.

tlrBeta · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:09

Can anyone advise on the 212 Trading fees please?

Is there a fee for depositing / withdrawing cash?

Slow transfer rates etc?

platinum87 · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:09

Skeptic said:
How is it a systemic problem? Has there been some fundamental shift in the way in which monetary policy works globally?

No there has not, the same problems 2008 we still have, but even worse.

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:28

platinum87 said:
No there has not, the same problems 2008 we still have, but even worse.

Are you joking!?! There's been significant reform since then. While I'm not discounting that there are global economic headwinds, the 'same problems, but worse' is absolutely false.

Russinating · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:28

Ev0 said:
Suffering from a little FOMO, if i'd bothered to do anything a couple of weeks ago on a couple of shares I'd been watching I'd have more than doubled my cash on one, and about a third on another

Would've been a total gamble at the time though!

By all means learn from historical choices, but don't for a second get carried away with the benefit of hindsight.

Ironic Namesake · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:36

Ironic Namesake said:
There’s new articles popping up about ZM daily - this time about it being banned by NYC schools. Planning to get out @ $115

Out of ZM this morning - half @ $112, other half @ $110

Basher · 6 Apr 2020 at 14:47

Yucca said:
More online video calling seems like it’s here to stay long term. So if zoom has issues and is a ‘fad’ then how about old school Microsoft?

If people drop zoom they are likely to move to teams right?

Which company does well out of all the hosting for zoom, houseparty, Skype and Microsoft teams?

This is what I see. The big collab players; MS, Cisco etc. should win from this.

Vanilla · 6 Apr 2020 at 15:45

My company is a zoom user. I think the issue with zoom is they are easy to replace.

The same way they took over from Webex another company can take from them. Google hangouts, bluejeans, Fuze. I can't think of one thing that zoom had that another didnt?

Vanilla · 6 Apr 2020 at 15:48

Some nice gains today, i'm tempted to jump out and wait for a decline to move back in for a cheeky 5-10%. However, like most when I do this kinda thing it normally keeps going up!

Ev0 · 6 Apr 2020 at 15:52

Russinating said:
By all means learn from historical choices, but don't for a second get carried away with the benefit of hindsight.

Indeed, just wished I'd listened to my gut for a change

But as you've mentioned, hindsight is a wonderful thing but not something that'll make me pile any money into something!

Skeptic · 6 Apr 2020 at 16:10

Skeptic said:
Oh for sure the misery isn’t over, but today is lovely. AAZ up circa 25% since I spoke about it here previously!

+11% today with a tonne of room to grow! Dyor but flying!

413x · 6 Apr 2020 at 16:11

Vanilla said:
Some nice gains today, i'm tempted to jump out and wait for a decline to move back in for a cheeky 5-10%. However, like most when I do this kinda thing it normally keeps going up!

Been burnt on this more than once in both stocks and crypto. Basically gambling.

Really hard at this point
I'm half in for what I have to invest this year. Tempted to go all in as this is for long term (if I don't lose my job etc)

Vanilla · 6 Apr 2020 at 16:14

413x said:
Been burnt on this more than once in both stocks and crypto. Basically gambling.

Really hard at this point
I'm half in for what I have to invest this year. Tempted to go all in as this is for long term (if I don't lose my job etc)

Yeah i'm just going to hold. Even if i sell now and it drops tomorrow it takes a few days to clear so I may not be able to get back in right away.

it's this kind of thinking that gets me into trouble. HODL, go have a beer and forget about it.