Trading the stockmarket (NO Referrals)
- Thread starter mcast123
- Start date
I gave the investment thesis a few pages ago
Since then their debt management has also improved.
Soldato
AA doing well today
GVC - by far my biggest LSE holding is flying as well! (I am beginning to wonder if their US partners are considering making a move as it's a fantastically well-run business)
I can't quite fathom what is driving the FTSE so much today. Have I missed something?
Success of some trials that GILD (Gilead) was running, and Trump talking very positively about the economy opening up again soon - US Futures up about 3%.
Just found it, I guess they may recover to where they were but who knows what the future holds.
Donald has been saying that since the day they 'shut down'. I personally think we are in for a nasty case of re-infection and ensuing stockmarket crash, so will look to sell into the exuberance.
Well, look at Cineworld. They are in a far worse position debt-wise than AA and don't even have a business at the moment and that seems to be flying... On that basis, AA has some legs I think.
The worry on the horizon for AA is the significant bond re-financing needed in 2022.
Soldato
I agree - S&P 500 is down only 15% from ATH when everything is basically at a standstill.
I’m keeping my SPY short open, possibly add to it depending where we go. And sell puts against it when volatility spikes / premiums are high.
Also considering the same on IWM
The AA will be fine. I traded it but could have been a long termer. I would buy again in a heartbeat but got concerned about how much pumping was going on, mostly on twitter. The current pump is SHI.
I'm back to being mostly cash. Has been a lovely few weeks but worried about the upcoming rug pull. Much of the current hype is FOMO I think. Gilead have walked back the announcement already...
I'm back to being mostly cash. Has been a lovely few weeks but worried about the upcoming rug pull. Much of the current hype is FOMO I think. Gilead have walked back the announcement already...
Soldato
Looks like a lot of people across the world are suddenly getting into stocks (and have a lot of spare time on their hands too) in some cases spare money - additional $600 weekly on the unemployment cheques which I think lasts until July.
Not only that, where else are people going to put their money? There's so few options that stocks seems logical. Plus on the back of a ten year bull.
I actually am minded to get in an active fund rather than passive. The world and its dog has passive trackers now, which isn't necessarily a problem, but if we are looking at the long term repercussions of the last few months, maybe active management is the way to go...
I actually am minded to get in an active fund rather than passive. The world and its dog has passive trackers now, which isn't necessarily a problem, but if we are looking at the long term repercussions of the last few months, maybe active management is the way to go...
Agree with all of this. Except I am looking to go all into cash before re-infection happens. (Although I am looking at a property purchase next year so don't want to risk my deposit!)
Soldato
my positions opened last night...
long vix and short Dow @ 24400. Biggest top picker in history
Key area this, if the trend doesn't hold the move up and above the previous channel then its going to find support in a channel below 22500.
long vix and short Dow @ 24400. Biggest top picker in history
Key area this, if the trend doesn't hold the move up and above the previous channel then its going to find support in a channel below 22500.
Soldato
I Gold is currently taking a tanking. I guess people think there is money to be made in the market rather than having it tucked away.
Soldato
Gold cant be judged day to day like that, that'd be like having your house price valuation as your browser home page and celebrating every time it goes up like you can just chuck it out. I know gold is tradable liquid market but thats not the backbone to the price. Its the job of markets to supply a price every day even for things which really dont have one exactly, they fill in the gaps with speculation.
Its very easy to get cut up on spreads, fees for juggling stuff and the market out maneuvers us all. If gold has a trend its year to year, maybe this is the top I hope people sell it off on a sentiment rise coming out of peak virus problems.
Its surely going to react to the dynamics of monetary policy, I heard Russia is not buying gold now because they lack the excess given by oil previously but its not news till they change policy from never selling gold.
Sadly Im biased to commodities but I did sell off big oil ages ago so not too upset personally, it'll show on ftse price though
Theres some skill in picking the right fund, we just lost our UK Buffet. SUPP isnt looking too healthy
any recommendations there should rate 100x over naming 1 ticker that can rise a week and fall the next.
Stocks reflect inflation, its the quickest reflection possibly. They shut down the exchange in Zimbabwe on the charges it produced the inflation
When sterling dives, stocks should rise like scales balancing so any stocks is some hedge especially as our FTSE is not uk based in the main afaik (even all share is weighted to the largest global stocks).
By the time this is all over this thread will be 999 pages, the virus being the smaller dynamic to wider velocity in stocks.
Its very easy to get cut up on spreads, fees for juggling stuff and the market out maneuvers us all. If gold has a trend its year to year, maybe this is the top I hope people sell it off on a sentiment rise coming out of peak virus problems.
Its surely going to react to the dynamics of monetary policy, I heard Russia is not buying gold now because they lack the excess given by oil previously but its not news till they change policy from never selling gold.
Big companies, could swap the capital take the profit off and hold FT100. I reckon the best plays will pass people by quite easily
AA is about juggling debt vs yields on consumer type revenue and debt. If people dont go out then AA costs are down just like I keep saying this terrible oil price is net positive for any big user. Since UK imports oil I have to conclude its like a natural subsidy.
Sadly Im biased to commodities but I did sell off big oil ages ago so not too upset personally, it'll show on ftse price though
A passive fund can be traded actively. The swing away from funds with higher fees is they were less justified it seems. Berkshire doesnt compare too well vs passive SP500 or gold even.
Theres some skill in picking the right fund, we just lost our UK Buffet. SUPP isnt looking too healthy
any recommendations there should rate 100x over naming 1 ticker that can rise a week and fall the next.Stocks reflect inflation, its the quickest reflection possibly. They shut down the exchange in Zimbabwe on the charges it produced the inflation
When sterling dives, stocks should rise like scales balancing so any stocks is some hedge especially as our FTSE is not uk based in the main afaik (even all share is weighted to the largest global stocks).
By the time this is all over this thread will be 999 pages, the virus being the smaller dynamic to wider velocity in stocks.
Last edited:
Finally sold out of my YOLOLOLOL individual punts and took quite a few thousand profit. I'm a member of a local private share/investment forum and not a single person there can make sense of the market. I'm retaining one position with medium volatility as a longterm investment that I feel has legs and settling back into trackers. Strangely enough, the best trades have been the companies with no current business and no hope in the medium term.
If there's going to be a 2nd dip, I'll remember that.
If there's going to be a 2nd dip, I'll remember that.
Soldato
Decided
Good call I think - it's come up a bit too fast and I believe we're due to see some more corrections still.
Selling my S&P 500 long term hold off - with the view of re-entering by writing cash covered options in both directions to buy back in and close or increase short depending on where we're heading.
Good call I think - it's come up a bit too fast and I believe we're due to see some more corrections still.
Selling my S&P 500 long term hold off - with the view of re-entering by writing cash covered options in both directions to buy back in and close or increase short depending on where we're heading.
Associate
For those of your trading in US shares, how are you doing the GBP to USD exchange? Are you using a UK broker and letting them doing the conversion with what I presume will be a small mark-up or is there a trading account that you can add a despoit in USD after doing the exchange yourself at a more competitve rate?
Soldato
I use IBKR - you can trade Forex too at spot rates with basically no spread (0.5 to 1 pip) to convert your currency.
Can deposit and withdraw in all major currencies.