It's a really really hard call.
Generally I'm not usually completely 50:50 on things like this. But this is one.
Rational part of me thinks this is crazy and even putin isn't this crazy. On other hand. The west looks weak. Very very weak.
Bit of willy waving to me. I think Putin is testing the West to see what our reaction would be. If we act as weak as he thinks we look then he may go for it.