I am bias as I have worked for the BBC as a freelancer but:
Don't blame the BBC for the licence, it was the government who brought it in. Before we just paid it amongst our other taxes, then Iraq war mk1 happened and the TV licence came about.
The problem with the BBC at the moment is the interference from government(read: BBC trust) It all started once the BBC revealed Tony Blair lied about Iraq mk2 WMD (which I cant believe he got away with tbh). Now we have to many people in suits that have no idea how to make a TV program, hence the drop in quality people are complaining about.
I can see the BBC going Commercial, but in some ways it already is. BBC in the USA has adverts. They get a lot of money from exports and co producing, Planet Earth was funded in part from Discovery Channel and this is the same with most of the Natural History programming.
The BBC is great, we do get value for money (I would say that though wouldn't I!) except the rehash crap of course, but no one forces you to watch it. I can name at least 10 series that I've watched throughout this last year on the BBC. The iplayer is awesome and I just cant wait for F1 on BBC.
But as I said, commercial BBC isn't to far off IMO (analogue signal turn off 2012 maybe?!) I see 3 channels Natural History, Drama and soaps, comedy(edit forgot about sports, NM) buy 2 get one free with adverts I'm afraid to say(all HD Though).
The thing that I hate about SKY/Cable, you pay all this money to be force fed ads every 5 minutes. Personally id rather pay the licence fee and have no ads on 4 channels + iplayer + radio stations + websites + all the other commercial TV channels that come with freeview.
oh and to the people who don't pay the TV fee, think of the 1000+ people who lost their jobs earlier this year at the BBC.