Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Soldato
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Meanwhile, let's check in on the Patriarch of the Russian Orthodox Church, and see how he's helping to calm the situation down:

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(Source).

Oh.



Ah cool so now not only have they declared war but they've also declared Jihad against the Ukrainians, clearly these Ukrainians with their gays and their lesbians and gender equality and their transgenders are infidels that need to be purged...Putin and the Church will be too happy to oblige and carry out god's work...


This actually has me worried that one day Putin will nuke a city in Europe and on TV claim it's gods will to clean the world of Western sinners
 
Soldato
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The uneasy and ashamed body language shows that most don't agree and understand that a first strike will result a large number of Russians loosing their lives too - it appears that the Russians are just working out that to Putin + his cronies like this TV programme, that they are not treated as non humans, slaves and the buffer line for eradication by Putin.

The issue is that the range required for what he is talking about requires ICBMs or long range hypersonic. Unless there is a Russian cell with a nuclear bomb in the target city.

The issue with Long range is that it sets off everyone's favourite mutually assured destruction scenario - with a strong chance that China could be destroyed directly or indirectly along with the western world.

What this is attempting todo is make the false flags more difficult - if a bomber invades the airspace, with a bomb/standoff launched missile that could be nuclear with this rhetoric then it is likely to be shot down and the everything escalates.

Does Putin want to be the one that destroyed Russia?

Everyone talks about Russian cities built to withstand attack, however given the state of the Russian military observed so far and the corruption - it's highly unlikely that the shelters and provisions are able to maintain a population for the length of time required.

The other wild/crazy alternative - is Putin attempting to de-populate Russia but not be seen to be the one initiating it? To rebuild Russia in is own image - perhaps Putin and the Orthodox Church leaders have been smoking JuJu juice in the basement as they contemplate the last remaining years of their lives and being manipulated by the religious leaders. After all you may get nuked in this life but there's rainbows and unicorns waiting for their worldly pleasures in the next life..


Seriously - this guy is over compensating and obviously wants promotion. If Putin performed a first strike against Poland or other states then the Chinese would be rather concerned being bordered with Russia. The Ukraine also has made the general populations understand they need to pick up arms to defend their country - and accept people will die.
This negates the use of short range tactical nukes, so perhaps Russia is trying to drive up the false flag pressure with air launched long range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.

The main issue is the "we can nuke you but you can't nuke us" psychological safety net. Then the you hit us so we hit you back harder approach. It's chess again.
Putin knows that Americans only care about nuke strikes on American soil. He knows that the EU would be left to pull the pin should a European city met with a Russian first strike. He would say to the Americans - a military action on Russian soil will cause a strike on the EU and their allies (ie US soil).
What would be interesting is if the missiles ended up in the wrong spot. There's a hole in Putin's chess - it expects rules of the game. If a Russian-sourced nuclear fuelled device was smuggled into a Russian border and detonated as a first strike against conflict areas then it would cause chaos.

However this talk is as crazy as that TV guy.
 
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Soldato
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Are the Russians really retreating like some of the papers are reporting this morning? That worries me a little as to what they are going to launch next.

Talk of chemical, biological and nuclear.

Biological is probably out as the first option - it's unpredictable and would be seen as destroying the lands of those he's trying to liberate.

Chemical - specifically nerve gas would be an option, although it would denote an escalation, the delivery would have to be standoff/drone launched weapons - given the attacks on the ground, having Putin's forces too close to artillery launched attacks would destroy large sections of his forces. More air defence measures would help to defend against this.

Nuclear - would send a warning to EU but would probably be a step too far from the Chinese perspective.
 
Associate
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But im thinking the weight/drone needed to carry such a device is going to be impractical (and expensive) and most importantly long delays to deploy.

White phos seems to burn at near enough 3000 degrees C, near on double the melting point of steel and self ignites when in contact with the air. A good strike around the turret / barrel connection would do enough damage that even if the tank is still driveable, the main barrel would be unusable / too risky to fire a round down due to potential warping / blowout. For the price of a Phantom 4 drone £1k and a pickle jar filled with white phosphorous you can have an army little suicide drones that can be rapidly acquired and deployed :D

Disclaimer: I have absolutely no military experience, but am an engineer.

WP wouldn't damage a hard target, like a tank. It burns hot, but not for long, it cools quickly and doesn't burn anywhere near long enough to let the heat transfer sufficiently through the metal to cause damage. And it certainly wouldn't melt the armour or barrel.

Although I imagine it might work if the smoke got inside the tank, to the crew.
 
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The uneasy and ashamed body language shows that most don't agree and understand that a first strike will result a large number of Russians loosing their lives too - it appears that the Russians are just working out that to Putin + his cronies like this TV programme, that they are not treated as non humans, slaves and the buffer line for eradication by Putin.

The issue is that the range required for what he is talking about requires ICBMs or long range hypersonic. Unless there is a Russian cell with a nuclear bomb in the target city.

The issue with Long range is that it sets off everyone's favourite mutually assured destruction scenario - with a strong chance that China could be destroyed directly or indirectly along with the western world.

What this is attempting todo is make the false flags more difficult - if a bomber invades the airspace, with a bomb/standoff launched missile that could be nuclear with this rhetoric then it is likely to be shot down and the everything escalates.

Does Putin want to be the one that destroyed Russia?

Everyone talks about Russian cities built to withstand attack, however given the state of the Russian military observed so far and the corruption - it's highly unlikely that the shelters and provisions are able to maintain a population for the length of time required.

The other wild/crazy alternative - is Putin attempting to de-populate Russia but not be seen to be the one initiating it? To rebuild Russia in is own image - perhaps Putin and the Orthodox Church leaders have been smoking JuJu juice in the basement as they contemplate the last remaining years of their lives and being manipulated by the religious leaders. After all you may get nuked in this life but there's rainbows and unicorns waiting for their worldly pleasures in the next life..


Seriously - this guy is over compensating and obviously wants promotion. If Putin performed a first strike against Poland or other states then the Chinese would be rather concerned being bordered with Russia. The Ukraine also has made the general populations understand they need to pick up arms to defend their country - and accept people will die.
This negates the use of short range tactical nukes, so perhaps Russia is trying to drive up the false flag pressure with air launched long range cruise missiles with nuclear warheads.

The main issue is the "we can nuke you but you can't nuke us" psychological safety net. Then the you hit us so we hit you back harder approach. It's chess again.
Putin knows that Americans only care about nuke strikes on American soil. He knows that the EU would be left to pull the pin should a European city met with a Russian first strike. He would say to the Americans - a military action on Russian soil will cause a strike on the EU and their allies (ie US soil).
What would be interesting is if the missiles ended up in the wrong spot. There's a hole in Putin's chess - it expects rules of the game. If a Russian-sourced nuclear fuelled device was smuggled into a Russian border and detonated as a first strike against conflict areas then it would cause chaos.

However this talk is as crazy as that TV guy.
That guy is mental, French and British have enough nukes to wipe out Russian cities.
They would weaken Russia and allow the US to finish them off with out any repercussions.
 
Caporegime
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The Russians may have stalled, but they've still captured a huge amount of territory.

Can you say you own Telford if you've got a couple of tanks there?

Quite. The Russians may have occupied this territory but they have not captured it and their ability to actually hold and control it is a very different question, especially as most of these regions do not form naturally defensible blocks. That said if they chose to, they could probably retreat to a corridor running from the Donbass to Kherson, declare their military aims achieved, and occupy that corridor from Russia to Crimea indefinitely. It would not come at no cost, however.
 
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Russia's progress at 22.03.22:

QSCrjCQ.jpg

The Russians may have stalled, but they've still captured a huge amount of territory.

While completely true I think a lot of that land is just open farmland. I think the Ukrainians rather than contest out in the open just defended their main population centres while harassing Russian convoys to the best of their ability. I’m not sure even they thought it’d go as well as it did.
So, if they manage to claw back places like Kherson you may see big blocks of red turn yellow since there’s no point in the Russians holding a farm out in the middle of nowhere!
The danger I suppose is if the Russians go defensive with what they’ve got. The only thing stopping that is the longer this goes on the longer sanctions will continue to be applied and they’ll be bled by a thousand cuts.
 
Caporegime
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If I was a Ukranian seeing my country invaded and turned to rubble and civilians slaughtered I wouldn't be too concerned about taking PoW's tbh.

That would be a mistake. Not just because of the rules of war, human rights, international response, etc. but because you want your enemy to surrender. You want them to give up, lay down their arms, and give themselves up to you as PoWs rather than fighting to the bitter end. You want them to give up their still working guns, ammunition, and armoured vehicles to you. The best thing Ukraine can do is make it known that Russian surrender will be accepted and PoWs will be well treated.
 
Soldato
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That would be a mistake. Not just because of the rules of war, human rights, international response, etc. but because you want your enemy to surrender. You want them to give up, lay down their arms, and give themselves up to you as PoWs rather than fighting to the bitter end. You want them to give up their still working guns, ammunition, and armoured vehicles to you. The best thing Ukraine can do is make it known that Russian surrender will be accepted and PoWs will be well treated.
Quite possibly, but I'll bet emotion would play a big part. At least it looks like the Chechens might have gone home after getting a good kicking, so surrender might be more of an option.
 
Soldato
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That guy is mental, French and British have enough nukes to wipe out Russian cities.
They would weaken Russia and allow the US to finish them off with out any repercussions.

The issue is that Putin is relying on his "Dead Hand", which is a set of automated launches to preprogrammed targets should seismic and flash sensors trigger. Those could be in the cities or Putin's favourite bunker.
 
Soldato
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The danger I suppose is if the Russians go defensive with what they’ve got. The only thing stopping that is the longer this goes on the longer sanctions will continue to be applied and they’ll be bled by a thousand cuts.

That is a very good point.

It's easier to arm a general population with basic service training and tell them to defend their home cities. It's more difficult to get them to act as an spear headed attacking force in unknown territory. However you have to remember that everywhere is hostile and as such if Russians are dug in, then they're sitting ducks and so are the logistics lines - the shorter the easier to defend and also target.
 
Soldato
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The danger I suppose is if the Russians go defensive with what they’ve got. The only thing stopping that is the longer this goes on the longer sanctions will continue to be applied and they’ll be bled by a thousand cuts.

Allegedly it is already back to the USSR for some with long lines at shops to buy food, particularly in the cities. The older generations will remember it but now they have been westernised to expect little luxuries and consumer goods, maybe not so generously as they once did.
 
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