Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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Lima said:
isnt it obviously to starve them? He has realised he doesn’t need to lose a load of Russian soldiers fighting in the factory, he has just blocked them in so nothing can get in or out. Either 2,000 odd soldiers plus civilians are going to starve or dehydrate to death very soon or they will need to exit the plant and surrender. First very smart move by putin in 2 months.
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I wonder if that will come back to haunt them? All civilians in there leave and have the injured troops 'surrender'. Assuming they have stockpiles to last the Ukrainians in there can hunker down while the city slowly goes 'back to normal'. The Russians will eventually have to leave the minimum numbers guarding it and the city itself as they can afford so they can spare the rest to move on. But it's a huge sprawling area surrounded by water. I bet supplies will get smuggled in eventually. That will allow them to cause all manner of headaches running an insurgency by being able to pop up all over the city and then disappear again into what's essentially a fortress island.
Or the supply situation is a lot worse than that and the vast majority are forced to surrender soon.
 
0007 said:
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CKVsBia.png

— Reuters
 
Lima said:
isnt it obviously to starve them? He has realised he doesn’t need to lose a load of Russian soldiers fighting in the factory, he has just blocked them in so nothing can get in or out. Either 2,000 odd soldiers plus civilians are going to starve or dehydrate to death very soon or they will need to exit the plant and surrender. First very smart move by putin in 2 months.
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It's a big problem for the Russians. They will need to tie up thousands of troops trying to keep that siege in place.
 
0007 said:
*UK: It Has Added 26 New Designations Under The Russia Regime
*UK’s Latest Sanctions Include Russian Military Figures, Business Executives
*UK's Latest Russia Sanctions Include Asset Freezes On Defence Companies
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*UK Says New Sanctions Target Putin’s War Leaders
*UK Foreign Secretary Liz Truss: Today's New Wave Of Sanctions Hits The Generals And Defence Companies That Have Blood On Their Hands

*Japan PM Kishida, New Zealand PM Ardern Demanded Russia’s Immediate Withdrawal From Ukraine — Joint Statement
*Japan PM Kishida, New Zealand PM Ardern Will Continue to Raise the Costs for the Architects of Russia’s Aggression Against Ukraine — Joint Statement
*Japan PM Kishida, New Zealand PM Ardern Stressed Importance of Cooperation Between Their Two Militaries — Joint Statement
*Japan PM Kishida, New Zealand PM Ardern Opposed Any Unilateral Action That Could Raise Tension in East and South China Seas — Joint Statement
 
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steve45 said:
That's not really the case anymore, UK/USA and a number of other nations are starting to funnel some very tasty kit their way. Sure they are stopping short on stuff like current Gen MBT's and fighters etc. With the way Ukraine has been holding its own, the initial hesitancy to hand over good kit seems to be slowly fading.
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I don't think it's fading, Nato can't go and let Ukraine lose this now, huge loss of face. We're "slowly" scaling up bigger/better equiptment, we don't want to shock Russia with to big a move. 2 Weeks ago giving Ukraine fighers sounded like starting WWIII, but now will we/Russia be suprised?

edit: my bad, still learning to read :)
 
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Rroff said:
Regarding Putin's orders to siege rather than storm the Azovstal plant - wonder if that is to either get them to let their guard down or to try and draw Ukrainian forces into an effort to relieve them.
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That doesn't really make much sense, they're not going to let their guard down (if anything they'll likely try to attack/raid any encirclement) + the Ukrainians would try to relieve them regardless if they could, that's been a key reason for Zelensky's requests for heavy weapons, not just for the Russian offensive in the Donbas but relieving Mariupol has been cited specifically too.

Mr Jack said:
It's a big problem for the Russians. They will need to tie up thousands of troops trying to keep that siege in place.
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Probably fewer than they'd need to storm it though and that really would have caused heavy losses.

On one hand, it's comical that this is announced via some choreographed discussion (this time around a very short table! :D ), I don't know why they do these but I guess maybe the Russian public laps them up.

On the other hand it is perhaps positive - it would be incredibly hard to storm that planet, there are deep tunnels built there to allow the workers to survive a nuclear war, they did however allegedly try some small chemical attack there with a drone recently I guess that approach has been walked back. Zelensky made it very clear in public statements recently that if Putin kills the Ukrainians there then the negotiations are off ergo Putin making a big show of this domestically as his personal decision to save Russian lives etc. might well indicate that he's taken Zelensky's threat re: negotiations seriously, that indicates Putin does want that negotiation option to be available in the near future (presumably if/when he's made some more gains in Donbas).
 
dowie said:
That doesn't really make much sense, they're not going to let their guard down (if anything they'll likely try to attack/raid any encirclement) + the Ukrainians would try to relieve them regardless if they could, that's been a key reason for Zelensky's requests for heavy weapons, not just for the Russian offensive in the Donbas but relieving Mariupol has been cited specifically too.
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If Russia pushed hard and ended the situation at Mariupol there is nothing left to tempt Ukraine to divert forces to try and rescue, by artificially keeping the situation alive indefinitely Russia can tempt Ukraine to divert forces there at the expense of strength in other areas Russia might be concentrating their assault on. (Or even pull the would be relief forces into a trap).

In letting their guard down I'm talking specifically in terms of anticipating assaults - it is only natural if Russia backs off the tempo and simply sieges them in after awhile they'll become more complacent about Russia mounting an attack as things appear lulled into a stalled situation. Right now the defenders will be braced and prepared for attacks as best they can be.
 
Washout said:
I wonder if that will come back to haunt them? All civilians in there leave and have the injured troops 'surrender'. Assuming they have stockpiles to last the Ukrainians in there can hunker down while the city slowly goes 'back to normal'. The Russians will eventually have to leave the minimum numbers guarding it and the city itself as they can afford so they can spare the rest to move on. But it's a huge sprawling area surrounded by water. I bet supplies will get smuggled in eventually. That will allow them to cause all manner of headaches running an insurgency by being able to pop up all over the city and then disappear again into what's essentially a fortress island.
Or the supply situation is a lot worse than that and the vast majority are forced to surrender soon.
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If the Russians can close a ring around the area, they can hope for attrition and starvation to do the job for them. Assuming their long term plan is controlling the azov shore, that's probably both required and doable.
 
Rroff said:
If Russia pushed hard and ended the situation at Mariupol there is nothing left to tempt Ukraine to divert forces to try and rescue, by artificially keeping the situation alive indefinitely Russia can tempt Ukraine to divert forces there at the expense of strength in other areas Russia might be concentrating their assault on. (Or even pull the would be relief forces into a trap).

In letting their guard down I'm talking specifically in terms of anticipating assaults - it is only natural if Russia backs off the tempo and simply sieges them in after awhile they'll become more complacent about Russia mounting an attack as things appear lulled into a stalled situation. Right now the defenders will be braced and prepared for attacks as best they can be.
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Ukraine would be trying to retake Mariupol regardless and assaulting the factory would be a nightmare for Russia. It isn't natural at all that they'd "let their guard down", that makes no sense and I don't think Russia can really plan any large assault by surprise regardless, there is plenty of surveillance of Russian positions and intercepts of communications etc.
 
dowie said:
It isn't natural at all that they'd "let their guard down", that makes no sense and I don't think Russia can really plan any large assault by surprise regardless, there is plenty of surveillance of Russian positions and intercepts of communications etc.
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When an assault is likely impending people are on edge, braced and prepared with the plans for defence fresh in their minds - few days of lull and people start to relax, question in their minds if it is really coming or not, aren't as prepared - it is only natural. It isn't a big edge but it can be an edge for an attacker. Russia can do what they always do build up, nothing happens, build up, nothing happens - even though it shouldn't be a surprise when they do attack it still has some element of surprise when they finally do and some people always believe or want to believe the denials.
 
Rroff said:
When an assault is likely impending people are on edge, braced and prepared with the plans for defence fresh in their minds - few days of lull and people start to relax, question in their minds if it is really coming or not, aren't as prepared - it is only natural.
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No, it isn't, this notion they're all just going to relax now is rather unlikely, they're cut off/surrounded. Also if you're questioning it from behind your keyboard in the UK do you not think professional soldiers on the ground with years of experience will too?

I suspect we'll see some more videos on Twitter/telegram of activity from the Ukranian Marines + Azov battalion there in the coming days.
 
Rroff said:
When an assault is likely impending people are on edge, braced and prepared with the plans for defence fresh in their minds - few days of lull and people start to relax, question in their minds if it is really coming or not, aren't as prepared - it is only natural. It isn't a big edge but it can be an edge for an attacker. Russia can do what they always do build up, nothing happens, build up, nothing happens - even though it shouldn't be a surprise when they do attack it still has some element of surprise when they finally do and some people always believe or want to believe the denials.
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While this is true, I'd have thought the extra time to build barricades and booby traps would mean that time favours defenders over attackers.
 
0007 said:
CKVsBia.png

— Reuters
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Since when was this a change of policy? They havn't stormed anything since the war began they just park their tanks outside and shell the place to oblivion and refuse to let any aid through starving everyone into the ground including civilians they only send in troops when theres nothing left moving inside. The only time they attempted anything like it was the start of the war when they sent tanks in a convoy down a public road towards kyiv and got decimated by anti tank weapons they havn't attempted anything similar since
 
Blackjack Davy said:
Since when was this a change of policy? They havn't stormed anything since the war began they just park their tanks outside and shell the place to oblivion and refuse to let any aid through starving everyone into the ground including civilians they only send in troops when theres nothing left moving inside. The only time they attempted anything like it was the start of the war when they sent tanks in a convoy down a public road towards kyiv and got decimated by anti tank weapons they havn't attempted anything similar since
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Agreed, most military analysts were saying at the start how their Blitzkrieg attempt went against their usual stategy of bombing cities into oblivion with artillery and air and then seiging them out until the remnants either starve to death or surrender
 
Whilst I'd not be surprised if it was already happening I think there's a lot to be said about SOF attacking Russian positions in Mariupol and creating corridors which supplies can move into the steelworks.
 
Blackjack Davy said:
Since when was this a change of policy? They havn't stormed anything since the war began they just park their tanks outside and shell the place to oblivion and refuse to let any aid through starving everyone into the ground including civilians they only send in troops when theres nothing left moving inside. The only time they attempted anything like it was the start of the war when they sent tanks in a convoy down a public road towards kyiv and got decimated by anti tank weapons they havn't attempted anything similar since
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True, there isn't necessarily any palpable change on the ground here in reality, there is a bit of a show/discussion for the Russian public from Putin to explain away the fact that they haven't yet been able to take control of the plant/the requests for the Ukrainians to all surrender etc.. haven't been fruitful.

At least that apparent chemical attack by a drone hasn't escalated into anything larger, I was worried about that - that would seem to be a solution if they really wanted to take it by force. Of course the use of chemical weapons would risk prompting a NATO response too.

StriderX said:
Whilst I'd not be surprised if it was already happening I think there's a lot to be said about SOF attacking Russian positions in Mariupol and creating corridors which supplies can move into the steelworks.
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The fact they were getting helicopter resupplies & casevac for several nights right under the Russian's noses was pretty impressive, sadly one of them was eventually shot down when the Russians finally noticed what was happening.
 
Rroff said:
Regarding Putin's orders to siege rather than storm the Azovstal plant - wonder if that is to either get them to let their guard down or to try and draw Ukrainian forces into an effort to relieve them.
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No it's to stop russians being unnesseraly killed in the area that is full of hidden rooms and catacombs.

if they go in they get slaughtered. By laying seige they are toothless, can't escape and cant kill anyone as no targets to shoot at. They have effectivly neutralised them by keeping them in.
 
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