Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Turn]

Shall I carry on building my shed or not worth it?

Yes some room for me too please

 

[kitch9]

widlfire season starting early in russia, or have they a different excuse i wonder

Are these false flags to get the public ready for a war declaration?

 

[nsmalley]

If people are that confident everything is going to go boom, take out a 10 year loan on a Ferrari and enjoy it until it does

 

[Hook]

Are these false flags to get the public ready for a war declaration?

This seems more reasonable:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1519656392029843458

 

[dowie]

I live 15km from AWE so will be dead in the first 5 minutes. I'm OK with that. Better that than having to live in the world afterwards.

I dunno, you might well be far enough away that the blast won't necessarily get you, it's the fallout to worry about after though. You'd have like 30 mins or so to get lots of heavy stuff, containers full of water etc.. on top of and to the sides of a table, ideally in a room with no windows, the thickest amount of walls around you etc.. and don't move for 48 hours + aim to stay there 99% of the time for 2 weeks.

If people are that confident everything is going to go boom, take out a 10 year loan on a Ferrari and enjoy it until it does

Or move away from big cities & other obvious targets + buy a 20ft+ sailing yacht. There will be people in say the north of Scotland or the Republic of Ireland or the Isle of Man etc. who survive the initial blasts + fall out of even multiple exchanges. Nuclear winter and the duration of it isn't a foregone conclusion... if you've got a boat and have dodged the fallout/radiation poisoning you could head to South America, New Zealand etc.

 

[nsmalley]

Or move away from big cities & other obvious targets + buy a 20ft+ sailing yacht. There will be people in say the north of Scotland or the Republic of Ireland or the Isle of Man etc. who survive the initial blasts + fall out of even multiple exchanges. Nuclear winter and the duration of it isn't a foregone conclusion... if you've got a boat and have dodged the fallout/radiation poisoning you could head to South America, New Zealand etc.

Shades of "on the beach"?

 

[dowie]

Shades of "on the beach"?

Yeah, I guess so, though AFAIK the issue with radiation following the detonation of nuclear weapons is relatively short-lived, unlike say a nuclear power station disaster such as Chernobyl.

 

[SideWinder]

We'd likely know about it before they launched, due to satellite surveillance of their known assets, movement, things being fueled etc. Then there's older systems like PAVE PAWS which can detect ICBMs being launched and stuff.

There isn't really a missile defence system which can counter ICBMs effectively, as once they're in the atmosphere and they're on their ballistic trajectory towards the target - they're really small, hard to detect, have lots of countermeasures and just fall out of the sky.

The most effective missile defence, comes from the fact that in the mind of the aggressor, there are always strategic missile submarines somewhere in the arctic, which will unload enough nuclear weapons to destroy the aggressor, in retaliation if they have to. That will likely never change.

Ah yes of course...as we'd see movement in the areas.

Thank you also for providing this info.

 

[Roar87]

We won't be destroyed but we're most certainly going to have to endure a long term strategy here of support and deploying assets to the east of Europe.

History is scattered the ashes of dead people who were sure they wouldn't be killed.

 

[Twinz]

History is scattered the ashes of dead people who were sure they wouldn't be killed.

It's also filled with people who thought they could appease aggressors.

 

[dlockers]

Shall I carry on building my shed or not worth it?

Shingle roof is sufficient, no point thinking 5-10 year

 

[StriderX]

Seen some more footage of UAV's with jury-rigged mortar shells as munitions and uhh yeah... no further comment.

 

[bingham67]

These new drone dropping munitions videos popping up are very detailed!

 

[reilly]

These new drone dropping munitions videos popping up are very detailed!

Seen some more footage of UAV's with jury-rigged mortar shells as munitions and uhh yeah... no further comment.

There is a video going around of a drone dropping 'it's load' through a sunroof of a vehicle. 1 in a million shot.

 

[dowie]

There is a video going around of a drone dropping 'it's load' through a sunroof of a vehicle. 1 in a million shot.

Some pretty nice shots with artillery out there too, obviously they're being shared in the first place because they're particularly good but still, nice to see it.

 

[Malevolence]

These new drone dropping munitions videos popping up are very detailed!

Particularly like the one where the 1st munition injures about 4 or 5 Russians who then scatter and limp their way to a SUV, which then gets a 2nd munition straight through the sun roof.

 

[Turn]

Spoiler: *Russia's Central Bank Decision/Comments

*Russia’s Central Bank: Sets Key Rate at 14% (Previous 17%)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees Its Key Rate in the 12.5-14.0% Range in 2022 (Previous Fcast 9.0-11.0%)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees 2022 Inflation at 18.0-23.0% (Previous Fcast 5.0-6.0%)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees 2022 GDP Down 8.0-10.0% (Previous Fcast Increase By 2.0-3.0%)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Though Having Decreased Slightly, Proinflationary Risks Are Still Considerable
*Russia’s Central Bank: the Decline in the Potential of Russia’s Economy Driven by Restrictions May Turn Out to Be More Pronounced Than the Baseline Scenario Assumes
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees 2022 Average Urals Oil Price at $75/bbl in Base Scenario (Previous Fcast: $70/Bbl)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees 2022 Current Account Surplus at $145 Billion (Previous Fcast Surplus at $133 Billion)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Sees 2022 Net Private Capital Outflow at $151 Billion (Previous Fcast $75 Billion)
*Russia’s Central Bank: Will Take Into Account Actual and Expected Inflation Dynamics Relative to the Target and Economic Transformation Processes
*Russia’s Central Bank: Over a Short-Term Horizon, the Effect of Proinflationary Factors Is Likely to Be Accentuated by High and Unanchored Inflation Expectations
*Russia’s Central Bank: Movements of the Economy and Inflation Will Also Depend on Future Fiscal Policy Decisions
*Russia’s Central Bank: Rouble Exchange Rate Dynamics Will Remain a Meaningful Factor Shaping the Path of Inflation and Inflation Expectations
*Russia’s Central Bank: Disinflationary Risks to the Baseline Scenario Are Mostly Linked to the Possible Additional Tightening of Monetary Conditions in The Economy
*Russia’s Central Bank: if the Situation Develops in Line With the Baseline Forecast, the Bank of Russia Sees Room for Key Rate Reduction in 2022
*Russia’s Central Bank: High-Frequency Indicators Point to a Contraction in Consumer And Business Activity
*Russia’s Central Bank: Lending Activity Is Decreasing, Especially In The Retail Lending Market

Past 2hrs:

Spoiler: *Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina Speaks

*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Risks to Financial Stability Stopped Rising in Early April
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Rate Cut Will Help Structural Changes in the Economy
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Inflationary Pressure Has Stabilised Recently
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Economic Activity Is Decreasing
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Investment Demand Is Decreasing Due to Economic Uncertainty
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: People Now Tend to Save More
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Are Not Aiming to Take Inflation to 4% Target by Any Means Possible
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Monetary Conditions Remain Harsh
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Economic Contraction Will Be More Pronounced in Q4
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Situation on Labour Market Is Quite Calm
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Can See Record $145 Billion Current Account Surplus This Year, but This Is Not Positive
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Are in the Zone of Collosal Uncertainty
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We See Room for Rate Cut
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Price Stability Is Our Priority
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Inflation Will Peak at Year-End
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: (When Asked About if Frozen Reserves Can Be Used by Ukraine) We Are Preparing All Measures to Address This Situation
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Don’t See Need to Change Mechanism of Gas Sales Ordered by President Putin
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Further Rate Cuts Will Be More Moderate
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Some Russian Companies Will Be Able to Publish Results
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Are Discussing Possibility for Foreign Investors to Carry Out Portfolio Investments in Russia
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Too Early to Comment on Foreign Investors’ Ability to Withdraw Money From Russian Markets
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: It Is Important to Return to a Budget Rule, Even if It’s Modified
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Today We Considered Cutting Rates by 200 and 300 bps
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Factors That Affect Rouble Rate Have Changed Substantially
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: With Current Capital Control Measures, the Rouble Rate Should Remain Floating
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Rouble Rate Could Be More Volatile in Current Conditions
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Capital Control Measures Were Designed to Lower Risks to Financial Stability
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Have Proposed to the Government to Consider Scrapping Mandatory Sales of Forex for Non-Commodity Exporters
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Have Proposed to Lower the Mandatory Conversion Ratio for Commodity Exporters to 50%
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Have Supported Decision on Consolidation of Otkritie Bank With VTB
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Can’t Sell Otkritie Bank to the Market Now
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: (Asked About Risks of Sovereign Default) Hopes All Will Be Well
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Pegging Rouble to Gold Prices Is Not Being Discussed at All
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Our Monetary Policy Will Be Aimed at Slowing Inflation if It Starts Accelerating Again
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: We Do Not Target Any Specific Rouble Rate
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Our Priority Is to Let Private Banking Business Develop

Spoiler: *Russian C.Bank Gov Nabiullina Quoted via RTRS / alternative, probably easier to follow

Spoiler: *Russia Makes Last-Gasp Dollar Bond Payments in Bid to Avoid Default — RTRS

Spoiler: *Russia to Pass New Law on Foreigners Entering Russia- Medvedev — RTRS

*Russian Defence Ministry Has Released a Video With a British National Captured As POW in Ukraine — IFAX

Spoiler: *Italy’s Eni Has Not Opened Rouble Account to Pay for Russian Gas — RTRS

Spoiler: *Ukraine, Backed by Dozens of Countries, Seeks Urgent WHO Meeting on Invasion Impact — RTRS

Past 30mins:

Spoiler: *Russia’s Petropavlovsk Notifies Bondholders of Default on Gazprombank Loans — RTRS

*Fitch: No Major Disruptions to Poland’s Energy Supply Are Expected Due to the Country’s Large Natural Gas Inventories
*Fitch: Higher Gas Prices Will Increase Inflationary Pressures in Poland and Bulgaria
*Fitch: Poland Could Replace Russian Coal Imports for Power Generation With Domestic Supplies
*Fitch: Bulgaria Is at Greater Risk of Energy Shortages Because the Country Is More Reliant on Russian Gas and Has Less Gas in Storage

*U.S. Senior Official: Russian Repayments of Eurobonds Involve New Funds, Not Funds Frozen in U.S. Systems
*U.S. Senior Official: U.S. Has Not Authorized Any Transactions Involving Russian Funds Frozen in U.S

Now:
*U.S. Official: Russia’s Recent Attack in Kyiv Was Intended to Hit (Ukrainian) Military Production Capacity
*U.S. Official: Russian Military Operations in Donbass Appear to Be Behind Schedule
*U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Says President Biden’s Ukraine Aid Proposal Is Strong
*U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi Says She Hopes “As Soon As Possible” to Pass Ukraine Financing Legislation Requested by Biden
*Exxon Operations in Russia Represented Less Than 2% of Total Production in 2021, About 65000, Barrels/Day, and About 1% of Operating Earnings

*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: Russia Limits the Ruble Conversion Period in Gas Payments to 2 Days
*Russian Central Bank Governor Nabiullina: It Increases Mandatory Reserves Requirements in Forex for Banks Starting From May

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

I'm not sure that sanctioning Russia to high hell, along with providing it's enemy billions of dollars of cutting edge lethal aid - qualifies as appeasment, to be honest.

Nobody is throwing Ukraine under a bus, and whilst it might feel good to imagine a huge NATO force getting involved and giving the Russians a good spanking on the field of battle, but it just can't happen with the current circumstances.

It can't happen, because the stakes of getting involved in a hot war with Russia on behalf of another non-NATO country are just too high, if we do - there's a very real path of escalation directly to a nuclear war.

Getting involved in a full blown hot war with Russia (which is what would need to happen) would result in carnage and catastrophe the likes of which we've never seen before, it could even ultimately end the human race, or put it back a few thousand years.

Who is suggesting NATO forces get involved? All that is happening is we are supplying Ukraine with the means, through weaponry, training and likely intel, to take the fight to Russia.

 

[StriderX]

Whilst it is lamentably becoming difficult to maintain I still feel some measure of pity for the Russian forces (except Kadyrovites, Mercs & known savages, zero for them) meeting an untimely demise for the sake of a cowardly elite's chauvinistic BS.

 

[Colonel_Klinck]

At what point do we start panic buying and stockpiling iodine tablets

Unless you live 40 miles plus from a detonation point you may as well just cover yourself in factor 50 sunscreen, it will do as much good in the long run. Only the most isolated areas of the UK would stand any chance of long term survival if all out nuclear war kicks off. Which it isn't going to do.