Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[Nemiyen]

Anyway, back on topic… a bit more detail on the river crossing that was foiled twice, this general points out it perhaps wasn’t just a BTG that was lost but it signifies a main effort and perhaps significant units lost across a whole brigade:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525252738724302848

Won’t listen the whole thread but it’s worth a quick read

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525252795867463680

Loss of bridge laying equipment (twice) is a big blow too (unless you believe they’re holding back loads of that).

Very good tactical insight there and the summary to me is... Be on the lookout for more attacks coming this way as it looks like a key Russian path.

Either that or someone in Russian training school mis heard them say this is very hard to achieve and maintain!

 

[dowie]

Very good tactical insight there and the summary to me is... Be on the lookout for more attacks coming this way as it looks like a key Russian path.

Either that or someone in Russian training school mis heard them say this is very hard to achieve and maintain!

Possibly yeah, they do seem to have this bizarre habit of trying and failing at the same thing more than once (airport near Kherson was multiple Turkey shoots it seems) in the same way they tried and failed the first time! Perhaps symptomatic of their military commanders on the ground having less discretion and/or poor comms with commanders of divisions, army groups etc.. (who have also been killed frequently enough when they venture forwards).

 

[dowie]

Another interesting (and quite positive post) by Dr Mike Martin @ Kings (he has been quite positive/optimistic in general). There has been a bit of chat by some commentators re this perhaps turning into a grind, frozen conflict in the future citing Ukraine, while able to hold off Russia, not necessarily having the offensive capabilities to retake significant territory. And vice versa, Russia having suffered significant losses in some of its best units, unsustainable losses of equipment(esp given sanctions) and currently struggling for manpower can’t easily resume multiple offensives on different fronts, they’re mostly focused on one area now. He presents a different view re: Ukraine’s prospects, notes the collapse around Kharkiv and posits that Ukraine could create fear and panic in Russian forces and cause further collapses, including perhaps disrupting their attempt at a land bridge to Crimea.

Snippets of the thread copied below:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525391001380081665

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525391018698342402

 

[Nemiyen]

Possibly yeah, they do seem to have this bizarre habit of trying and failing at the same thing more than once (airport near Kherson was multiple Turkey shoots it seems) in the same way they tried and failed the first time! Perhaps symptomatic of their military commanders on the ground having less discretion and/or poor comms with commanders of divisions, army groups etc.. (who have also been killed frequently enough when they venture forwards).

I think that's a systematic problem of Russian culture from my understanding. E. G. Chernobyl (maybe a bad example as that's in Ukraine!) and the fact that they don't accept failure and will just lie through their teeth to make things appear to be better than they are.

If you attack and fail 5 times but succeed on the 6th attempt then the narrative from them is it's a big win, not a humiliating loss it took them 6 attempts to get it right!

 

[Rroff]

Far more interesting than the - 'I've just spotted a plane on flight radar, that is interesting...' type guff.

Curious are you just a very miserable person in general? or have I done something specifically which has got your knickers in such a twist? - I don't recall any past interaction which would merit such mean spirited comments.

You seem very triggered by the fact I even exist.

If you have a better idea as to what is going on by all means post it - I'm just trying to understand a situation which one way or another is looking like it is going to affect us all in the longer run and I'd rather be prepared and out ahead of that than caught with my head in the sand.

 

[robfosters]

Far more interesting than the - 'I've just spotted a plane on flight radar, that is interesting...' type guff.

Lol, I kind of agree. 2 US military planes heading towards Turkey, interesting.

No, it’s really not Tell me when there’s a squadron of Russian bombers heading towards the UK, then I’ll be interested.

 

[Rroff]

Loss of bridge laying equipment (twice) is a big blow too (unless you believe they’re holding back loads of that).

Can't remember if I ever linked to the videos but they sent plenty of that as I noted back in Jan

Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

UK deploying troops into europe... https://news.sky.com/story/russia-ukraine-tensions-uk-to-deploy-troops-across-europe-as-fears-grow-putin-will-choose-path-of-bloodshed-and-destruction-by-invading-ukraine-12528439

forums.overclockers.co.uk

I don't think this incident is a overly huge blow in terms of loss of bridging equipment compared to the amounts of it seen moving in the build up but not something they can afford too many losses of given the terrain in Ukraine.

EDIT: It is likely a lot more costly in terms of skilled engineers however - building a river crossing is easy, building a good river crossing, especially under fire, is hard. Hence the number of instances of overturned tanks in rivers, etc.

 

[Rroff]

Lol, I kind of agree. 2 US military planes heading towards Turkey, interesting.

No, it’s really not Tell me when there’s a squadron of Russian bombers heading towards the UK, then I’ll be interested.

It is all part of a bigger picture, understanding it (and what is and isn't normal or a new normal) helps to see where things are headed in the longer term. In that case it was simply a transit between deployments but could have been the start of a more interesting flight.

 

[bris]

Russai are struggling now, their losses are staggering and all this nonsense about not sending their best is just, well, nonsense.

This is the biggest humilation Putin has ever had and he is sending his best along with his generals to die on the battlefield.

In Fact he is hurting so bad he has now ordered the Russian troops, his best and most experianced to be deployed from Syria.

This is a big turning point and shows how desperate he is. He is giving up an ally and leaving hid Friend (another murdering dictator) vulnerable now.

Al Assad with be crapping himself, his enemies will seize this opportunity for a fresh offewnsive.

Putin can't sustain this, there is no long term strategy here and he will know this, if the goals arent met, and soon which they never will be, then the sanctions will eventually decide this.

Sure, he has reserves and a lot of them in Russia but he can't afford to commit them as he weakens his ability to defend the country. They would just get bogged down the same way they are just now.

A build up on the border will be decimated by the new arty systems in place. It's not as if they can claim war games now, if anything approaches the border they will be fired on.

 

[firstborn]

.... I'm just trying to understand a situation which one way or another is looking like it is going to affect us all in the longer run and I'd rather be prepared and out ahead of that than caught with my head in the sand.

and what scenarios do you think you can successfully prepare for? That I am truly am interested in by the way.

 

[dowie]

The General I quoted seems to think it is a blow in terms of equipment too and for me at least I’ll probs put more weight on his views tbh…

 

[Rroff]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1525215553408860161

If they are going to not only push Russia back all along the border ( https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-may-13 ) but also stop them pushing elements back in again once the front line moves on they are going to need to mobilise those kind of numbers and arm and equip as well as train them.

 

[Rroff]

and what scenarios do you think you can successfully prepare for? That I am truly am interested in by the way.

That could be wide ranging especially without sufficient information at the moment - it could be anywhere from avoiding the turmoil of fuel or food shortages through to making an informed choice and/or trying to make sure I'm in a role better suited to my abilities if this was to escalate militarily.

The General I quoted seems to think it is a blow in terms of equipment too and for me at least I’ll probs put more weight on his views tbh…

Again in abstract rather than directly baring on your post but with all due respect to them a lot of retired military commentators on this situation while they can have unique insight are often falling back on what was conventional wisdom when they were serving, etc. even the US intelligence admitted only one agency had a correct appraisal of Ukraine's ability to fight back against Russia, etc. ( https://twitter.com/NatashaBertrand/status/1525084267725856769 ). This is a situation where a lot is going on which is easily missed and not necessarily unfolding as people would expect - even people with high levels of experience or intel.

For another example Ben Wallace in the early days was one of the only ones with clear eyes on how this was unfolding with a lot of denial and criticism from other nation's government/militaries, etc. because it didn't fit with what their experience told them.

EDIT: Slightly less abstract, it is hard to find them now given how much there is to wade through, but large amounts of stuff like this was seen in convoys in the build up to the invasion for example https://twitter.com/MarQs__/status/1495131924955815936 - there were videos of several dozens of PMP vehicles and bigger variants, etc. these losses will be costly but they've got quite a bit of the stuff as well.

EDIT: Linked from that one of the convoys near Kursk:

https://twitter.com/x/status/1493901677870690309

And that was just one of many instances of such convoys spotted.

 

[GGizmo]

On the recent news of the UK signing security agreements with Sweden and Finland, the UK as now signed a security agreement with Norway. This one seems to be about both security and agreeing to work more closely when it comes to future energy supplies.

UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-norway-europe-london-nato-b2078625.html

Boris Johnson and his Norwegian counterpart have signed a new joint declaration stating the countries will work together to boost “security, sustainability and prosperity” in Europe and beyond.

The pair made the move following a meeting in London, where they were said to have “underscored their full support” for any choice by Nordic partners to enhance their security.

 

[Rroff]

On the recent news of the UK signing security agreements with Sweden and Finland, the UK as now signed a security agreement with Norway. This one seems to be about both security and agreeing to work more closely when it comes to future energy supplies.

UK and Norway sign agreement to boost security in Europe and beyond
https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/boris-johnson-norway-europe-london-nato-b2078625.html

I really hope we will step up to a level of preparedness, in a range of ways, which would enable us to actually support them if it came to it rather than reactively trying to find solutions while on the back foot - whether that is energy security or military confrontation.

Though the reality is if things escalated that far it has probably already gone nuclear.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

Hopefully we’ll finally see some decent spending on our armed forces.

The best thing about Ukraine currently pushing the Russians back is that the best equipment and training has only really just begun. It sounds like there is a hell of a lot more on the way.

The West won’t back down on this one, there’s too much at stake. I’m not even sure Russia will be able to dig in for the longer term looking at the equipment arriving in Ukraine, they are completely outclassed.

 

[Rroff]

Hopefully we’ll finally see some decent spending on our armed forces.

The best thing about Ukraine currently pushing the Russians back is that the best equipment and training has only really just begun. It sounds like there is a hell of a lot more on the way.

Not that I want to see anyone killed (who doesn't deserve it) but shame there isn't more footage of NLAWs and Starstreak, Martlet and Brimstone in action - I'm curious as to the actual effectiveness in the larger scale of combat.

 

[CaptainRAVE]

Not that I want to see anyone killed (who doesn't deserve it) but shame there isn't more footage of NLAWs and Starstreak, Martlet and Brimstone in action - I'm curious as to the actual effectiveness in the larger scale of combat.

There have been a fair few videos floating around on Reddit (Ukraine and UkraineWarReport), but mostly just them firing the weapons and who knows how effective they’ve been.

 

[Brazo]

Russai are struggling now, their losses are staggering and all this nonsense about not sending their best is just, well, nonsense.

This is the biggest humilation Putin has ever had and he is sending his best along with his generals to die on the battlefield.

In Fact he is hurting so bad he has now ordered the Russian troops, his best and most experianced to be deployed from Syria.

This is a big turning point and shows how desperate he is. He is giving up an ally and leaving hid Friend (another murdering dictator) vulnerable now.

Al Assad with be crapping himself, his enemies will seize this opportunity for a fresh offewnsive.

Putin can't sustain this, there is no long term strategy here and he will know this, if the goals arent met, and soon which they never will be, then the sanctions will eventually decide this.

Sure, he has reserves and a lot of them in Russia but he can't afford to commit them as he weakens his ability to defend the country. They would just get bogged down the same way they are just now.

A build up on the border will be decimated by the new arty systems in place. It's not as if they can claim war games now, if anything approaches the border they will be fired on.

I completely agree, so much so I could have written the above post. However Putin sadly has a big red button that I fear may be used before it gets too much worse for him.

 

[Rroff]

There have been a fair few videos floating around on Reddit (Ukraine and UkraineWarReport), but mostly just them firing the weapons and who knows how effective they’ve been.

A lot of it seems to be training and/or just used to finish off already damaged and abandoned equipment, or they cut off the video immediately when they fire, etc. or the odd instance of supposedly using them to take out drones which you can't confirm what happened.

Russai are struggling now, their losses are staggering and all this nonsense about not sending their best is just, well, nonsense.

This is the biggest humilation Putin has ever had and he is sending his best along with his generals to die on the battlefield.

In Fact he is hurting so bad he has now ordered the Russian troops, his best and most experianced to be deployed from Syria.

This is a big turning point and shows how desperate he is. He is giving up an ally and leaving hid Friend (another murdering dictator) vulnerable now.

Al Assad with be crapping himself, his enemies will seize this opportunity for a fresh offewnsive.

Putin can't sustain this, there is no long term strategy here and he will know this, if the goals arent met, and soon which they never will be, then the sanctions will eventually decide this.

Sure, he has reserves and a lot of them in Russia but he can't afford to commit them as he weakens his ability to defend the country. They would just get bogged down the same way they are just now.

A build up on the border will be decimated by the new arty systems in place. It's not as if they can claim war games now, if anything approaches the border they will be fired on.

Slightly Dowie like take on it but: "Not sent their best"<>"has now ordered the Russian troops, his best and most experianced to be deployed from Syria"

Part of the point I was making though is that they've ended up throwing their best forces at it piecemeal, almost good money after bad style rather than kicking the invasion off utilising them at their best.

I'm not sure why people are having such a problem with the some vs all vs some other granular level of quantity aspect of it, etc.

Despite people denying it Putin has in a paranoid like fashion tried to do this invasion with minimal depletion from their active forces, which hasn't worked out, he seems to fear the country might be invaded by the West and trying to keep forces back for that and it has hamstrung the efforts in Ukraine - which you even acknowledge in the last half of your post.

It does seem pretty likely Russia is going to have to make a hard decision soon though.

EDIT: The more curious thing, as some commentators have mentioned, Russia was not under immediate pressure with this invasion, they could do it to the time and place of their choosing so to speak - so it is crazy how much of a mess they've made of it when they could/should have had the time to make sure their logistics was better prepared and so on.