Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

[NickK]

Russia got bogged down in Afganistan before the US. What would be funny is if the Ukrainians suddenly found a nuke they'd supposedly gave back to the Russians.

As Putin's ratings have dropped like a stone with Covid and the economic fall out, he's spoiling for a war to boost figures by adding land. For that reason he will invade. What is key is that the result of his actions results in self inflicted failure. With lots of applications to Nato cementing the wall around Russia.

Russia has 1/3rd of it's GDP in gold reserves so it can last a while. However I suspect any action will result in an outright strategic decision to close off the dependendancy on Russian gas.

A long drawn out war protracted, lack of potential long term income to recover expenditure.

Also Putin has some nutcase ideas - such as the 30 bus sized Posiedent dirty cobalt-salted nuclear torpedoes. Designed purely to threaten countries coastlines. The likelyhood of use is low, the likelyhood of a grounding and environmental disaster is high. It goes to show his desperate nature and the fact that russia needs to resolve it's confidence problem without poisoning the planet. This is like the cuban missile crisis but for each country. It is a course of action that russia may not come back from - even if they're not used but deployed.

 

[GreatAuk]

Russia, and China for that fact, can bang on about how fast and how manoeuvrable in the terminal phase their new hypersonics are all they like, that doesn't detract from the fact that they're easily tracked and, if they get past the initial interceptors, they'll get shredded by the solid wall of tungsten put out by numerous CIWS.

Might possibly be the case for a single missile, but how about some back of the fag packet maths for another scenario: Let's say the missile launchers have managed to pick a good target (eg cruiser on its own) and get three or more missiles converging at once I'd not be so sure about CIWS effectiveness. Let's say the tracking systems are working perfectly, fully locked on to three incoming missiles at mach 5. (1700m/s). Two phalanx systems, each one targets a different missile. Say they start firing when they're 4000m out, with 1100m/s rounds. From the various sources it seems like they typically would wait until the target was closer, but we'll give them the best chance possible here. By the time the first rounds pass the missile it's about 1600m out. 1.4 seconds elapsed. Only the missiles have changed performed evasive maneuvers, and nothing hits them at first, they are destroyed 1000m out. 1.75 seconds elapsed. Both phalanx systems now turn on the remaining missile. Takes 0.25 seconds to retarget, the missile is now 600m away. 2 seconds elapsed. Both fire, rounds hit the missile 0.2 seconds later when it's 250m out, about 1.5 times the length of the cruiser. Last missile destroyed. Time elapsed 2.2 seconds. 330 rounds fired in total. Missile debris hits the ship, luckily the payload was destroyed so it only does superficial damage.

I feel like that's being extremely charitable to the CIWS system in terms of accuracy, lethality, and tracking speed (from googling, some sources don't think ciws system would have any success against a hypersonic missiles at all) , but it doesn't leave much margin for error, and any less favourable scenarios (eg worse ciws performance, faster missiles, etc) might not go so well.

 

[Dem2k]

Russia has 1/3rd of it's GDP in gold reserves so it can last a while. However I suspect any action will result in an outright strategic decision to close off the dependendancy on Russian gas.

So the net result of sanctions to Russia would be Europe (mainland) and to lesser extent us would end up with even higher energy bills and Russia will just sell their resources it will hurt them sure but not to the extent I believe and that ex German navy chief stated.

Who knows maybe we can get China onboard let's write him a nice letter.

Dear Emperor Mr Xi can you please not buy any resources from Russia while we sanction it and try to knock ten bells out of their Military because Putin is a crazy nutcase. We promise we will let you take Taiwan, oh and we will not continue to sell to Australia those shiny new nuclear submarines because they think your bit of crazy lunatic also, Kind regards

 

[RoboCod]

The issue an aircraft carrier is that it’s a single asset. It can project however it’s susceptible to hypersonic missiles at long range.

They're more worried about Russians submarines than hypersonic missiles. Still, they need to find them and be able to target them though. The fact remains, the west has many positions to base air operations out from along the borders to Russia.

 

[RoboCod]

Probably a better way to answer this:

An aircraft carrier radar : 250 nmi (460 km)
MACH 8 = 2,700+m/sec

So the 460/2.7 = 170 seconds from the outer limit of detection. 3 minutes. Most US carrier groups have an eye in the sky, so it would be longer with the AWACs (if the plane is between the launch and the carrier you could get 800km for example).

A carrier, say 56km/h top speed, means 15.5m/sec max, or in the 3 minutes 2,790m. That's a maximum angle of tan-1(2790/460000) = 0.3475 degrees at full range. Assuming a 90 degree angle attack to the carrier.

So MACH9, turning radius is 190 miles (305.77km) at 3g max (given our missile is liquid propellant) or 305770m/360 *0.3475 = 295.15m distance to perform a maximum angle deflection at 3g. Or the last 295/2700= 0.109 seconds of flight time. The ship may have moved 1.55m forward in that last 0.1 seconds.

So I suspect it would (technically) be able to hit a carrier, given the carrier is 40m-76m beam (ie the narrowest target).

3 minutes is a long time for a sensor package to remain on target, with noise from countermeasures.

There'll be more than the ship and an AWACS tracking that missile. It'll be detected at much greater range.

 

[CapitalOne]

https://www.reddit.com/r/aviation/c...urce=share&utm_medium=ios_app&utm_name=iossmf

 

[NickK]

They're more worried about Russians submarines than hypersonic missiles. Still, they need to find them and be able to target them though. The fact remains, the west has many positions to base air operations out from along the borders to Russia.

True - carrier escort or the US includes frigates, destroyers and even a sub.. active sonar from that tidy lot is going to make a sub stand out like a light bulb in the dark.

 

[Minusorange]

Not so secret now is it Sky

 

[NickK]

So the net result of sanctions to Russia would be Europe (mainland) and to lesser extent us would end up with even higher energy bills and Russia will just sell their resources it will hurt them sure but not to the extent I believe and that ex German navy chief stated.

Who knows maybe we can get China onboard let's write him a nice letter.

Dear Emperor Mr Xi can you please not buy any resources from Russia while we sanction it and try to knock ten bells out of their Military because Putin is a crazy nutcase. We promise we will let you take Taiwan, oh and we will not continue to sell to Australia those shiny new nuclear submarines because they think your bit of crazy lunatic also, Kind regards

Russia, China and Iran have been doing naval exercises in the gulf of Oman and beyond. Funny how Iran is a competitor to Russian oil and China the customer of both..

 

[StriderX]

There'll be more than the ship and an AWACS tracking that missile. It'll be detected at much greater range.

I would think that if Russia thought the West would engage that they'd pre-emptively launch satellite killers on any spysat that they've identified as well as all of our GPS systems.

 

[arknor]

I would think that if Russia thought the West would engage that they'd pre-emptively launch satellite killers on any spysat that they've identified as well as all of our GPS systems.

Some of you guys seem to think this is going to escalate very fast.

Putin might as well just launch all the nukes now if he's going to start attacking carrier strike forces, military satellites with no limits on the engagements.


everyone will want it contained to a small area of Ukraine any aggression is going to be highly calculated and the risks weighed up.

no one wants a full on Russia Vs USA war



worst thing russia will do to the USA is start hacking their infrastructure more than they already do

 

[RoboCod]

I would think that if Russia thought the West would engage that they'd pre-emptively launch satellite killers on any spysat that they've identified as well as all of our GPS systems.

It doesn't quite work like that though. Striking a satellite requires some serious planning, it isn't something quite so reactionary or ordered (strike satellites - strike aircraft carriers - win war). Also, hitting GPS would be economic suicide for them. Despite them having their own GLONASS system, knocking out GPS would be on a MAD level kind of devastation for everyone.

E: I'm not sure they have the ability to reach and destroy satellites far out in geostationary orbits either. Could be wrong of course.

GPS sits in the medium earth orbit (MEO). I don't think anyone has reached beyond LEO (low). However, China have "killer robot arm" satellites and frickin lasers.

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/In...US-satellites-with-robotic-arm-commander-says

https://www.militaryaerospace.com/sensors/article/14201826/satellite-blind-lasers

 

[Dem2k]

Russia, China and Iran have been doing naval exercises in the gulf of Oman and beyond. Funny how Iran is a competitor to Russian oil and China the customer of both..

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/In...large-as-China-Russia-trade-tops-record-140bn

Nikkei is a Japanese source 22 Jan this year so I don't think they would be thrilled to hear about this news either. If the sanctions happen which I am sure they would Russia will lose sure but yet will still be making over $140 billon + trading with China alone . What I am getting at here is the sanctions the US and the west put on Russia is not going to sting them as much as it would have in the Soviet days.

 

[NickK]

https://asia.nikkei.com/Politics/In...large-as-China-Russia-trade-tops-record-140bn

Nikkei is a Japanese source 22 Jan this year so I don't think they would be thrilled to hear about this news either. If the sanctions happen which I am sure they would Russia will lose sure but yet will still be making over $140 billon + trading with China alone . What I am getting at here is the sanctions the US and the west put on Russia is not going to sting them as much as it would have in the Soviet days.

First, Russia would need to work out a plan for processing cross-border payments with China in the event that Moscow is blocked from the Belgium-based SWIFT international banking system. Second, Russia could replace some Western high-tech products with Chinese substitutes.

The US has stopped short of threatening blocking SWIFT. Iran was blocked from SWIFT and essentially it was put into the dark ages.

What the UN/US would likely do is focus on sanctions of assets for Russia. China would then be in breach and thus sanctions would also appear in that area too.

Russia tend to be dismissive of sanctions, but China may not be so happy given it needs trade to get itself out of the property hole.

 

[XeNoN89]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486821462338064392

 

[chrismscotland]

I’m beginning to wonder how close Russia really is to any incursion/invasion. The USA and UK appear to be hyping up the threat of invasion as being “imminent” while European nations and indeed the Ukrainians themselves don’t agree.

I’m starting to think that both Biden and Johnson are trying to use this to divert from their own troubles at home; Biden’s poor domestic approval ratings and lack of any real deliverables in his first year and of course Boris’ ongoing issue of being a walking liability to himself.

The Ukrainians themselves are saying that this has been going on for months and there’s been troop deployments around them for months; it just seems that the US, UK and NATO have realised in the last fortnight….

 

[XeNoN89]

I’m beginning to wonder how close Russia really is to any incursion/invasion. The USA and UK appear to be hyping up the threat of invasion as being “imminent” while European nations and indeed the Ukrainians themselves don’t agree.

I’m starting to think that both Biden and Johnson are trying to use this to divert from their own troubles at home; Biden’s poor domestic approval ratings and lack of any real deliverables in his first year and of course Boris’ ongoing issue of being a walking liability to himself.

The Ukrainians themselves are saying that this has been going on for months and there’s been troop deployments around them for months; it just seems that the US, UK and NATO have realised in the last fortnight….

That doesn't match up with the absolutely massive military movements to the Ukraine border including battalions travelling over 7000km from east Russia to Belarus

 

[chrismscotland]

That doesn't match up with the absolutely massive military movements to the Ukraine border including battalions travelling over 7000km from east Russia to Belarus

Maybe not but since the original events in 2014 we’ve seen Russia fairly regularly build up numbers of anything up to 125,000 troops in West Russia around Ukraine; almost to show that their military is actually capable of deploying and doing it very rapidly; they didn’t invade then.

 

[jpaul]

USA/UK are hyping it , not as a diversion, but to avoid a Crimea repeat - this could be something that wins Boris some respect on worldwide+homeland stage.

Don't the missiles have inertial guidance , so gps is academic .

Sanctions blocking airport travel like was done for Belarus ? - you need sanctions that are visible to the everday Russian

 

[arknor]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1486821462338064392

USA wants a military base in Ukraine or something?

or does UKraine want that but are afraid it's citizens might need a bit of pressure to accept it