I don't think any NATO countries will be putting any bases in Ukraine.
Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar
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why not? it's the cold war 3.0 isn't Russia already talking with Cuba.
it's like trying to build leverage over the opponent with mind games and seeing who backs down first?
does the USA want a base in Ukraine? probably not if it gives that impression and Russia buys it they might have to follow though and actually do it
do you think that senior officials message was for the world, or for russia?
btw I always find it humorous that Violence is never the answer.... yet it seems to be the go to every time for countries to get their own way.....
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You say that, but in reality there is a direct correlation between Putin's popularity and how hard Russia's security is being "threatened" by the west and their economy sanctioned as a result of his actions. It's like the more **** he brings down on his people the more popular he becomes because all they see is the US and friends raining **** down on them and him standing up to them. This is why he set a record vote % in 2018 due to the Trump administrations heavy anti-Russia stance driving up his popularity at home.
In times when relations with the west have been okay Putin has been elected with mediocre to okay shares of the vote (53% in 2000 and 64% in 2012) but in times when Russia's economy is being negatively influenced by the west and their security/position vocally threatened by western politicians he has had much more commanding victories (72% in 2004 and 77.5% in 2018).
On a comical note, Putin didn't stand in 2012 as they had a two term limit in place at the time (later repealed to "set the people free to elect whoever they wanted"
) and Dmitry Medvedev ended up being elected to replace him with the highest voter % of any Russian president in history on the highest turnout since 1991. Putin managed to surpass this in 2018 (the winning % not the turnout) as mentioned above, but it's worth noting he isn't as popular as it may seem he just lacks credible opposition.No, however neither of those we're pre-planned so build up was impossible.
Their Georgia invasion was an ill thought out reactionary measure in response to Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia (a small former Soviet autonomous province/region between Russia and Georgia, it claimed independence after the USSR broke up, Georgia claimed ownership of it as they owned it 100+ years ago, and Russia don't want it as there's no Russians there, it's complicated lol) which itself was a response to Ossetians shelling Georgian villages. The Russian's had no advance knowledge they would be invading Georgia so were unable to build up for it (which was showed in their lacklustre performance against a completely outmatched/outclassed enemy)
Their Crimean "invasion" didn't really involve mobilising troops just the ones already stationed there (as they had bases from the Soviet era there thanks to agreements with Kiev) albeit sans uniforms. Again this couldn't have been pre-planned as it was a response to Crimea's decision to hold a referendum on reunification which was a response to the new Ukrainian government (following the coup that removed the Crimean backed president) begin implementing anti-Crimean laws.
So yeah neither of those we're pre-planned but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have planned for them if they could have.
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Maybe they won't do it because China had already thought about this and have a contingency plan. If Russia is a sleeping giant right now, China is the sleeping dragon.
They have about 50 MiG-29 (F-16 equivalent) and 30 Su-27 (F-15 equivalent) so while not amazing and having no chance vs the Russian Air Force it's not exactly nothing.
They also have 30 assorted ground attack jets (Su-25, Su-24, etc).
Of course the main worry for the Russian Air Force wouldn't be Ukraine's planes it would be their SAMS. The still have ~70 Buks and 90 Kubs, plus ~250 S-300. Almost all of these have been upgraded since 2014 so are comparable to the latest Russian models (the S-300 are practically at S-400 level).
It can't make any difference to NATO wether they have assets in Ukraine or not if they already have Poland, Romania etc. They could just keep higher deployments in these instead. Obviously they don't want Ukraine to be invaded by Russia but I don't see a great advantage to Ukraine being in NATO if it wanted to be.
Assuming you're referring to Putin right?
If what is going around on social media is true Russia is setting up comms relays, moving forward mobile bridging equipment and medical units... I can't confirm that intel however. If true either trolling or we are just short of the man power mobilisation for an invasion.
For instance what appears to be a mobile comms unit moving here:
Geolocation: https://goo.gl/maps/t6Aw7b9FnNH6xH1G7
Direction of travel is towards Ukraine (~90 miles away) but likely heading to the nearby airbase https://goo.gl/maps/9tU91CBxH68wHTsDA either unrelated to any build up or a pit-stop and/or to take advantage of the heavy lift capabilities there.
EDIT: Dunno how old that video is - likely not very given the weather - the Maxar imagery for the airbase shows vehicles matching the type and size of that convoy parked up (older image as there is no snow on the ground).
Doesn't seem like a very normal place to leave those vehicles.
There are like 5 of these groups on the move currently in Russia - not the kind of thing you'd do for normal exercises or regular rotations. Either the US is getting majorly trolled or we are about 10 days away from some major action.
For instance what appears to be a mobile comms unit moving here:
Geolocation: https://goo.gl/maps/t6Aw7b9FnNH6xH1G7
Direction of travel is towards Ukraine (~90 miles away) but likely heading to the nearby airbase https://goo.gl/maps/9tU91CBxH68wHTsDA either unrelated to any build up or a pit-stop and/or to take advantage of the heavy lift capabilities there.
EDIT: Dunno how old that video is - likely not very given the weather - the Maxar imagery for the airbase shows vehicles matching the type and size of that convoy parked up (older image as there is no snow on the ground).
Doesn't seem like a very normal place to leave those vehicles.
There are like 5 of these groups on the move currently in Russia - not the kind of thing you'd do for normal exercises or regular rotations. Either the US is getting majorly trolled or we are about 10 days away from some major action.
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Intelligence believes that Russia could launch an attack westwards in under ten minutes! We've a dossier n that.
Or that they are terrorists....or it might be democracy or oil.
On the Crimea - more justification than the Panama invasion?
Or that they are terrorists....or it might be democracy or oil.
On the Crimea - more justification than the Panama invasion?
You say that, but in reality there is a direct correlation between Putin's popularity and how hard Russia's security is being "threatened" by the west and their economy sanctioned as a result of his actions. It's like the more **** he brings down on his people the more popular he becomes because all they see is the US and friends raining **** down on them and him standing up to them. This is why he set a record vote % in 2018 due to the Trump administrations heavy anti-Russia stance driving up his popularity at home.
In times when relations with the west have been okay Putin has been elected with mediocre to okay shares of the vote (53% in 2000 and 64% in 2012) but in times when Russia's economy is being negatively influenced by the west and their security/position vocally threatened by western politicians he has had much more commanding victories (72% in 2004 and 77.5% in 2018).
On a comical note, Putin didn't stand in 2012 as they had a two term limit in place at the time (later repealed to "set the people free to elect whoever they wanted"
No, however neither of those we're pre-planned so build up was impossible.
Their Georgia invasion was an ill thought out reactionary measure in response to Georgia's invasion of South Ossetia (a small former Soviet autonomous province/region between Russia and Georgia, it claimed independence after the USSR broke up, Georgia claimed ownership of it as they owned it 100+ years ago, and Russia don't want it as there's no Russians there, it's complicated lol) which itself was a response to Ossetians shelling Georgian villages. The Russian's had no advance knowledge they would be invading Georgia so were unable to build up for it (which was showed in their lacklustre performance against a completely outmatched/outclassed enemy)
Their Crimean "invasion" didn't really involve mobilising troops just the ones already stationed there (as they had bases from the Soviet era there thanks to agreements with Kiev) albeit sans uniforms. Again this couldn't have been pre-planned as it was a response to Crimea's decision to hold a referendum on reunification which was a response to the new Ukrainian government (following the coup that removed the Crimean backed president) begin implementing anti-Crimean laws.
So yeah neither of those we're pre-planned but that doesn't mean they wouldn't have planned for them if they could have.
LOL
Lacks credible opposition, no he kills them or sticks them in prison till they die.
Also you think the elections in Russia are not rigged for Putin!?
Also as has been stated numerous times...
Crimea had zero vote on being part Russia until they had been taken over by Russia, I'm not sure why all the pro Putin mob keep coming out with this crap.
16 march, 2014 was the date of that vote you quoted, they were invaded on the 20 February 2014, so bang goes that old russian excuse, unless march comes before February in Russia!?
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Pretty sure there's a good "In Soviet Russia..." line for that one.
osce-release-image-of-modern-russian-jamming-systems-in-eastern-ukraine
Russian jamming systems are already present, the systems can be used to interfere with drone and troop communications, additionally GPS navigation for long range weapons (but not ground map following radar). An analysis by the Estonia defence: https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2018/ICDS_Report_Russias_Electronic_Warfare_to_2025.pdf
What is interesting is they have removed the divisions from the boarder with China to deploy - I wonder if that's also electronic warfare.
Also I wonder if the Chinese belt and road is now becoming the Siberian belt and road.. with Russian ports being operated by Chinese.. investment.. and then invasion.
Russian jamming systems are already present, the systems can be used to interfere with drone and troop communications, additionally GPS navigation for long range weapons (but not ground map following radar). An analysis by the Estonia defence: https://icds.ee/wp-content/uploads/2018/ICDS_Report_Russias_Electronic_Warfare_to_2025.pdf
What is interesting is they have removed the divisions from the boarder with China to deploy - I wonder if that's also electronic warfare.
Also I wonder if the Chinese belt and road is now becoming the Siberian belt and road.. with Russian ports being operated by Chinese.. investment.. and then invasion.
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There's probably thousands of men infiltrating key locations already, think tv stations parliamentary buildings etc,
Biden has shown himself to be very weak, Putin can do what he wants. Hopefully those uk c17 flights were bringing back our spies and equipment. Maybe an evacuation of sorts, hopefully all the dogs are out OK.
Biden has shown himself to be very weak, Putin can do what he wants. Hopefully those uk c17 flights were bringing back our spies and equipment. Maybe an evacuation of sorts, hopefully all the dogs are out OK.
Very true - this has been going on since 2013. So I would expect a heavy infiltration. Also it points a finger at Trump's handling too..
So, what could Biden have done differently in your eyes to not be seen as 'weak'? Keeping in mind Russia hasn't gone on the offensive (yet). I say they're doing all that can be reasonably done. Arm the Ukrainians with as much anti-armour as they can to deter as much as possible. If they cross the line sanction them hard. Hopefully going after the oligarchs and all their assets internationally.
Sad thing is I'm not sure Putin can back down now? He's pretty much pushed Ukraine into Nato if they don't take over asap. The exact opposite of what his deployment was (publicly anyway) hoping to avoid.
That is what I assume the Russians were counting on - the most logical setup if this is an invasion is to make use of Russian leaning people and teams/individuals infiltrating Ukraine to cause unrest, disrupt infrastructure, leadership and communications and then send the troops in once things are in chaos.
It is very hard to fight back when your forces and country as a whole are full of holes and that is a big problem for Ukraine.
I think there is an element of calling Russias bluff in the latest statements on a Feb attack.
You gotta remember there are a lot of sensors observing what Russia are doing, they will be using that along with intelligence gathered from other services and known Russian doctrine. To come up with most likely course of action. This will be the basis of the statements, this will be what Biden and BoJo's advisors will be telling them.
I feel to call their bluff and to show that we are watching and we know what they are up to.
You gotta remember there are a lot of sensors observing what Russia are doing, they will be using that along with intelligence gathered from other services and known Russian doctrine. To come up with most likely course of action. This will be the basis of the statements, this will be what Biden and BoJo's advisors will be telling them.
I feel to call their bluff and to show that we are watching and we know what they are up to.
I think you might be misremembering. Georgia had been building up its forces with heavy involvement from the US, they were clearly ramping up military spending (i think it was 8% of gdp) and were clearly preparing to retake abhazia and south ossetia. Russia was well aware of Georgian build up and mirroring the build up.
There's a difference between frozen conflict occasional fire or shelling and full fledged invasion force ready to retake and control the break away provinces, so the increased exchange of fire was just a political excuse for the public.
The point is, Russia was ready and well aware of possible Georgian offensive on Abhazia and South Ossetia. There are interviews with Sakashvili and other parties invlovled (including US ministers) that talk openly about all of this. US didn't think Sakashvili would try to retake them and Sakashvili thought he would get larger western support if he would. Typical politics, everybody is lying to everybody and concern for human lives are at the bottom of the list...if on the list at all.
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