Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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diamount said:
They won't have to. In 10-20 years, I'd wager the area would be mosty populated by Han Chinese (which Russia is actively encouraging due to their lack population in the area) and they'll do a Russia and setup fake referendums with their intention to join China and Russia won't be able to do a damn thing considering they'll probably not even exist in their current form.
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This is a realistic take, not sure about the fake referendums but those areas will definitely be populated by mostly ethnic Chinese. Why even bother invading Russia when you can just emigrate there legally and turn it into China over time? A declining Russia won't have the administrative power to hold together such a large country.
 
CaneyJ said:
At this point with Russia as weak as it is, why would China bother with the tiny island of Taiwan when instead they could go north and take back the whole of outer macnchuria?
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China wants Taiwan for its microchips, its the country that makes all the good important ones.

America will go to war to protect it, do you really think The USA give a toss about Taiwan and its people if it wasn't in their self interest?

China want it, USA want to defend it.

Taiwan in itself has huge defences, it's terrain make it very difficult to take but china could do it if the USA didn't get involved but they will.

Alone Taiwan couldn't but they would seriously weaken china with their sheer defence system

Another reason they wont is because even if they did their would be nothing to take except the island because everything would be obliterated rather than fall into Chinese hands and remade in USA

In fact they are already building one in Arizona. USA will control the market for a long time.
 
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Roar87 said:
China doesn't view Russia as it's adversary, Russia is an ally to China against Western Imperialism, why would China want a weak Russia? That's like saying the US wants a weak UK.
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True, China doesn't view Russia as an adversary; she views her as a rival. The 'ally against Western imperialism' (LOL) shtick goes down well with the punters, but the governments both nations know it's nothing more than a handy fig leaf while they pursue their own, genuine imperialism. Just ask the African nations what happened when they accepted loans from their nice friendly Chinese creditors.

China's response to Russia's imperialist land grab in Ukraine has been notably coy, which is good politics for her but bad news for Russia in the long term.
 
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Roar87 said:
What are you basing that on? Russia is a great source of natural resources for China, they aren't looking to land grab. How would that even work against a nuclear armed Russia? You lot just makes things up because you want them to be true, ignoring whether they are actually true or not.
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Yes it does have natural resources that China wants. Russia isn't an equal in this relationship, far from it. Russia is now left with only the likes of China and India as significant trading partners. They have natural resources that China wants, Russia needs currency and tech that China has, China gets to dictate terms in this relationship. They can just keep turning the screw, they'll end up getting rights to those resources so they can send their own companies in to get them out of the ground. The deeper Russia gets into being reliant on China the more they will turn the screw.

As for nukes, that is your argument to everything. You think Putin would start a nuclear exchange with a state they are reliant on and that has plenty to send back? He isn't doing that for some territory half a world away from Moscow. His population only knows what he tells them and he doesn't give a **** about ethnics from that part of Russia, they are cannon fodder.

This nails the relationship

 
CaneyJ said:
At this point with Russia as weak as it is, why would China bother with the tiny island of Taiwan when instead they could go north and take back the whole of outer macnchuria?

You think just because of a little 2001 friendship declaration they aren't forgetting Russia stealing a sizable % of China's land?

Now would be their best opportunity for a land grab in the near future especially if the Russian govenment disintegrates, nukes or not.
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Read Tom Clancy the bear and the dragon..............

only difference is Nato wouldnt pee on Russia if it was on fire unless Putin was gone
 
bris said:
China wants Taiwan for its microchips, its the country that makes all the good important ones.

America will go to war to protect it, do you really think The USA give a toss about Taiwan and its people if it wasn't in their self interest?

China want it, USA want to defend it.

Taiwan in itself has huge defences, it's terrain make it very difficult to take but china could do it if the USA didn't get involved but they will.

Alone Taiwan couldn't but they would seriously weaken china with their sheer defence system

Another reason they wont is because even if they did their would be nothing to take except the island because everything would be obliterated rather than fall into Chinese hands and remade in USA

In fact they are already building one in Arizona. USA will control the market for a long time.
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You have to think Taiwan would destroy all the fabs before China could get their hands on them, if not the US would take them all out, no way they allow the latest EUV machine from ASML to fall into Chinese hands.
 
bris said:
I'm pretty sure Turkey has given them both the green light now.
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You sure? Last I heard Turkey were still being difficult because Sweden refuse to extradite a large list of people that Turkey want to lock up. Unless that is, there position has changed recently?
 
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Colonel_Klinck said:
You have to think Taiwan would destroy all the fabs before China could get their hands on them, if not the US would take them all out, no way they allow the latest EUV machine from ASML to fall into Chinese hands.
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I would imagine there is already well developed plan to ensure that industry wouldn't survive a chinese invasion.
 
I find China's increasing exploitation of Russia the most worrying part of this episode.

Somehow we need bring Russia back into the fold once they finally accept the scale of the mistake they've made in Ukraine.
 
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Colonel_Klinck said:
You have to think Taiwan would destroy all the fabs before China could get their hands on them, if not the US would take them all out, no way they allow the latest EUV machine from ASML to fall into Chinese hands.
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Yeah microchip/advanced semi-conductor production is a hugely complex process involving not just the physical facilities but huge amounts of human expertise and global collaboration on design and supply - simply overrunning Taiwan and grabbing the facilities intact (which won't happen anyway) doesn't grant you the ability to produce microchips - even managing to acquire the facilities and some staff won't. Even if they managed to get their hands on the advanced lithography equipment (they probably have relatively detailed information on it anyhow from spying) doesn't allow them to simply replicate the expertise of the companies involved and future developments of that technology.

Colonel_Klinck said:
As for nukes, that is your argument to everything. You think Putin would start a nuclear exchange with a state they are reliant on and that has plenty to send back? He isn't doing that for some territory half a world away from Moscow. His population only knows what he tells them and he doesn't give a **** about ethnics from that part of Russia, they are cannon fodder.
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Not convinced on this - I think there is only so far Putin could accept it before at the very least tactical nukes come out to stop any further advance into Russia - the equations are different compared to their use against Ukraine or NATO. Putin might not be bat **** crazy but he does show many signs of megalomania to the point of a very altered rationale compared to what we'd consider rational - there is a point he will go through with something most people don't consider rational as has happened with Ukraine.

EDIT: The only way this happens really is the earlier points where either Russia is so dependant on China they concede some territory "voluntarily" or there is a population growth within those territories with a strong Chinese identity eventually splintering off with China able to provide enough menace to dissuade Russia doing a Georgia, etc.
 
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