Ukraine Invasion - Please do not post videos showing attacks/similar

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SteveOBHave

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Rroff said:
Although not directly the same, Russia still has avenues with China, etc., what is going on now to them is similar to what pushed Japan into WW2 - I wouldn't eliminate Russia going to a full war footing as a possibility.
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This is true - suffice to say China now has an avenue to cheap LNG and a captive demand for manufactured goods and food. I'm just curious to see how much Xi is willing to risk playing the same game with Taiwan - I'm guessing at this stage they're pretty spooked by the severity of the sanctions especially with the precarious nature of the Chinese economy.
 

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Rroff said:
Although not directly the same, Russia still has avenues with China, etc., what is going on now to them is similar to what pushed Japan into WW2 - I wouldn't eliminate Russia going to a full war footing as a possibility.
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possibly, but that still doesn't give them tactical superiority to the extent that they will successfully take on NATO, unless they really are going for the full glass making option. If Russia, even on full war footing mode go after a NATO member, the initial opening phase of the war would likely be conventional, and based on Russia's current showing, NATO would have them turned over in a conventional war in weeks. NATO air power alone would render a lot of Russia's go to tactics in effective within the first few days of that war. Russia know this, so that would mean their end game is the nuclear option, in which case why bother trying to fight a conventional war you know you can't win, just bunker up and press the button.
 

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SteveOBHave said:
This is true - suffice to say China now has an avenue to cheap LNG and a captive demand for manufactured goods and food. I'm just curious to see how much Xi is willing to risk playing the same game with Taiwan - I'm guessing at this stage they're pretty spooked by the severity of the sanctions especially with the precarious nature of the Chinese economy.
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I might be wrong but I don't think China is anywhere near ready to invade Taiwan, whether Xi would be willing to risk it or not - to the point I don't think Xi would order it even. Even with their fancy ferries, etc. the scale of amphibious warfare capabilities is still far short.

Not sure if they are authentic, though from the technical level of detail probably were, but the supposedly leak of potential invasion approaches for Taiwan were laughable - all Taiwan would have to do would be to sit back and occasionally poke the fire to win as the Chinese troops would have ended up killing wave after wave of their own troops trying to execute the plan in a real war.
 

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https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...-failing-budget-spent-yachts-2022-3?r=US&IR=T

And to nobody's surprise no less. Either they were just not thinking, or thought that Russia would never actually need military assets for a "special operation" - I guess putin was kept out of the loop since it has been said he's been furious since the invasion began.

Edit* He was indeed kept out of the loop lol:

2. Russian military. The Kremlin spent the last 20 years trying to modernize its military. Much of that budget was stolen and spent on mega-yachts in Cyprus. But as a military advisor you cannot report that to the President. So they reported lies to him instead. Potemkin military
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SteveOBHave

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Rroff said:
I might be wrong but I don't think China is anywhere near ready to invade Taiwan, whether Xi would be willing to risk it or not - to the point I don't think Xi would order it even. Even with their fancy ferries, etc. the scale of amphibious warfare capabilities is still far short.

Not sure if they are authentic, though from the technical level of detail probably were, but the supposedly leak of potential invasion approaches for Taiwan were laughable - all Taiwan would have to do would be to sit back and occasionally poke the fire to win as the Chinese troops would have ended up killing wave after wave of their own troops trying to execute the plan in a real war.
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I would expect the start of such a conflict would be strategic bombing - take out airfields, coastal defences, docks etc. China does have a vastly superior air force (in numbers anyway).
 

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Rroff

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SteveOBHave said:
I would expect the start of such a conflict would be strategic bombing - take out airfields, coastal defences, docks etc. China does have a vastly superior air force (in numbers anyway).
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Yeah - for that and to support amphibious landings China ideally needs a high aerial sortie rate - which means quick turnaround from airbases nearish Taiwan - while not crucial to an invasion they've currently only built one of several which would be required for that.

While not impossible it isn't very likely China would attempt an invasion before 2025, more like 2027.
 

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MartinPrince said:
There was no talk of Finland or Sweden joining NATO before the invasion of Ukraine. Putin has already gone down the rabbit hole and has now made NATO more relevant by his action but that doesn't mean that he can allow further expansion without threatening reprisals.

Sweden/Finland are not Ukraine. The issue with Ukraine might have the potential joining of NATO as the headline issue but it is more complex than that. There are issues to do with oil and gas, the large Russian speaking population in the east etc. Ukraine's history is closely entwined with Russia's, which is why this feels more like a betrayal to Russia - and the people in Salisbury knows what Russia does to traitors.

Sweden and Finland might not be members of NATO but they are in the E.U. I don't particular see Putin's attack on Ukraine as a sign of madness but an attack on Sweden/Finland would be truly mad as the rest of Europe would not then probably standby as they are now.
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You are wrong

Just watch this and follow what he says and tell me it's not about NATO


He really sees NATO as a threat, taking Ukraine won't diminish his paranoia
 

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mrk said:
https://www.businessinsider.com/rus...-failing-budget-spent-yachts-2022-3?r=US&IR=T

And to nobody's surprise no less. Either they were just not thinking, or thought that Russia would never actually need military assets for a "special operation" - I guess putin was kept out of the loop since it has been said he's been furious since the invasion began.

Edit* He was indeed kept out of the loop lol:
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Scott Manley just pointed out something interesting, the head of Russia's space agency is the highest paid head of a space agency in the world and yet the engineers and other staff under him get paid on average 10% of their American counterparts at NASA. In Russia the money is funnelled more to the top than capitalist America
 

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Rroff said:
Ukraine definitely need some manoeuvring so as to be able to counter-attack - but there is a risk there of giving up significant ground in doing so, so I'm not quite sure how to balance that out.

US estimates that Russia has incurred up to 6K dead and 18K injured - which is about half-way to the point the majority of units would be incapacitated by losses and require significant regrouping and/or no longer able to maintain combat effectiveness as a larger force.
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Agreed. I'm no military genius, I just know that sitting still with them not getting attacked will not end well.

We haven't seen that much of Russia's air force either.
 

Amnesia

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ltron said:
Will we let him take every other non-NATO country in the region too? Maybe we should hand them all over now and avoid the bloodshed.
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C.R.A.Z.Y said:
Well we might as well start handing Putin more countries then because if you think his going to stop at Ukraine your delusional!
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Looking at how well Russia are doing(sarcasm) in Ukraine, what makes you think they are capable of taking over the rest of the world(excluding NATO) ?

This question is not only to you but to the rest of the guys who feel Putin cannot be stopped and will not stop.
 
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Rroff

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Amnesia said:
Looking at how well Russia are doing(sarcasm) in Ukraine, what makes you think they are capable of taking over the rest of the world(excluding NATO) ?

This question is not only to you but to the rest of the guys who feel Putin cannot be stopped and will not stop.
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This is far from a Russian best effort - though I'm not sure they can commit much more to Ukraine - there is only so much they can deplete their borders like with China, Caucasian states are simmering, not to mention their efforts to maintain a presence in the Arctic region, Syria and so on. It is still something we should consider seriously however.

The state of some stuff we've not really seen used in Ukraine is also a bit of an unknown - on paper Russia has a significant air force, it has hardly factored in Ukraine and it seems in reality far less is serviceable than the on paper numbers especially the high end stuff - but who knows.
 
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