US kills Iran's General Soleimani

[dowie]

Maybe they are scared of shooting at the wests military directly so have decided to take a pop at a soft target like an airliner.
After all a jumbo jet normally wont shoot back.

More likely accidental, they might be scared of a western response but if they believe a western response might have been starting then I don't see why they'd not choose to act.

The US can't exactly complain too much about losing aircraft while engaging in a bombing mission over Iran.

 

[neckbeardthethird]

what were so many Canadians doing in Iran of all places ?

Majority seem to be Iranian Canadians

 

[dowie]

NYT claims they've got video footage, which they claim to have verified, showing the missile hitting the plane over Tehran.

https://www.nytimes.com/2020/01/09/video/iran-plane-missile.html?action=click&module=Top Stories&pgtype=Homepage

Video verified by The New York Times appears to show an Iranian missile hitting a plane above Parand, near Tehran’s airport, the area where a Ukrainian airliner stopped transmitting its signal before it crashed on Wednesday.

A small explosion occurred when a missile hit the plane, but the plane did not explode, the video showed. The jet continued flying for several minutes and turned back toward the airport, The Times has determined. The plane flew toward the airport ablaze before it exploded and crashed quickly, other videos verified by The Times showed.

Visual and sonic clues in the footage matched flight path information and satellite imagery of the area near where the plane crashed. The satellite images were taken on Thursday and provided to The Times by Maxar Technologies, a space technology company. This helped to verify the video’s authenticity.

Will Iran be able to dodge handing over the flight recorder etc.../still claim it is damaged now?

 

[Deleted member 77746]

@dowie post 1303 lol

 

[dowie]

@dowie post 1303 lol

ah oops - thread too big... sorry

 

[Deleted member 77746]

ah oops - thread too big... sorry

nah it’s cool I saw that on Twitter n though I would post it. I’m not sure what Iran is up too it makes no sense.

 

[dowie]

It makes sense now why Iran's retaliation was so muted.

I know the plane crash came after the attack on the US air bases in Iraq, but Iran must have realised that one of their soldiers shot that plane down by accident and then called off further strikes anywhere else.

That doesn't necessarily follow - the limited strike could have been planned in advance regardless.

 

[RoboCod]

what were so many Canadians doing in Iran of all places ?

That's a pretty insular view. There are nationalities all over in all countries. Just because one government doesn't like another government doesn't mean their citizens aren't going to travel there for: business; tourism; family; diplomacy; etc

 

[Sankari]

I was reluctant to condemn Iran before the facts were in, but with growing indications that it was shot down, I stand corrected.

 

[StriderX]

I mean condemning them isn't really going to mean much, unless of course it was on purpose, which doesn't make much sense, but then very little does nowadays.

 

[dowie]

I mean condemning them isn't really going to mean much, unless of course it was on purpose, which doesn't make much sense, but then very little does nowadays.

Could seize some assets to compensate the victims with.... can't recall if they ever resolved getting back some of their frozen assets in London.... I wonder if some of that could be used should a Canadian or UK court award some compensation for the families of the victims.

 

[StriderX]

Could seize some assets to compensate the victims with.... can't recall if they ever resolved getting back some of their frozen assets in London.... I wonder if some of that could be used should a Canadian or UK court award some compensation for the families of the victims.

I suppose that works, assuming we're completely done with diplomacy, but then there's the issue on British-Iranian prisoners that we might wish to have leverage for.

 

[dowie]

I suppose that works, assuming we're completely done with diplomacy, but then there's the issue on British-Iranian prisoners that we might wish to have leverage for.

If the victims are awarded compensation payments by a court over this then frankly Iran needs to cough up... IANAL but if a US court can get foreign courts to say, seize an Argentinian ship over a dispute with a US hedge fund then I don't see why a Canadian court (for example) can't attempt to go after Iranian assets held in Western countries too (should Iran fail to pay)nor do I see why politicians should step in to prevent it.

(anyway this is all rather speculative but surely that it was a missile is looking to be pretty much confirmed now and that there will be demands for compensation seems highly likely)

 

[Amp34]

Either way this whole episode seems like a success for Trump: reestablished deterrence against Iran and others; moved EU countries away from JCPOA; shifted news agenda off impeachment; given the Pres a big foreign policy victory; no US casualties. Can’t hurt re-election.

Conversely it could hurt Trump significantly. He almost started a war the US didn’t want with some rather sketchy evidence (if any) which was only defused by Iran’s moderate actions. The deaths on that plane could also be pinned indirectly to him too. The JCPOA was already dead, but this won’t change Europe’s stance on it. With Iraq wanting foreign forces out of their country it could be argued it’s a bit of disastrous foreign policy.

It has shifted news from the impeachment, but that’s been stalled anyway. When it’s passed up to the senate and the trial begins then it’ll come back as front page news again.

The opinion polls will tell us which way it’s gone. So far there are two from 6-8th Jan that show a 1% drop from the previous polls from the same companies. That doesn’t really tell us much yet, but the ones in the next few days will indicate which way things may go.

 

[Blackjack Davy]

There is another possibility here - there are factions within Iran who want to draw the regime into war with the US - some religious zealots who believe in the whole final battle in which the US is defeated, etc. and some who want regime change and have probably been being some previous provocative actions (including potentially some of the mines on shipping) in an effort to try and incriminate the regime and might have shot this plane down for their agenda.

Revolutionary Guards are a law unto themselves but its hard to see what they would have to gain by shooting down a Ukrainian plane - american/western/british yes but this? Makes no sense. Best guess it was unintentional or someone getting trigger happy.

 

[Merlin5]

 

[Amp34]

There is another possibility here - there are factions within Iran who want to draw the regime into war with the US - some religious zealots who believe in the whole final battle in which the US is defeated, etc. and some who want regime change and have probably been being some previous provocative actions (including potentially some of the mines on shipping) in an effort to try and incriminate the regime and might have shot this plane down for their agenda.

There’s certainly a possibility. The Iranian government is a power struggle between moderates and hardliners, both trying to outdo each other.

It wouldn’t be the first time the hardliners have tried to damage moderate Iranian policies to continue the “war” against the US. They had been trying to scupper the Nuclear deal since it was put in place, and Trump ripping it up basically gave them victory on a plate with that.

Equally the comment above about Iran wanting rid of Soleimani could be a reasonable guess. The moderates giving the nod to the US to get rid of one of the most powerful hardliners with the promise they would keep the retaliation proportionate.

And calling Iran a dictatorship isn't exactly accurate. The Ayatollah has a significant amount of influence and the “final say” but day to day running and a lot of policy is set and enacted by the democratically elected parliament. I.e the elected president and parliament members have a lot of power. Unfortunately the revolutionary guard and other institutions also have a lot of power, which is where a lot of the seemingly contradictory actions from Iran come from. One side is trying to bring peace, while the other side is arming militia.

 

[Rroff]

Revolutionary Guards are a law unto themselves but its hard to see what they would have to gain by shooting down a Ukrainian plane - american/western/british yes but this? Makes no sense. Best guess it was unintentional or someone getting trigger happy.

There are various different factions with different agendas - though I'm not sure how much they exist in numbers on the ground in Iran versus sitting somewhere safe in other countries trying to get others to do their dirty work. Some religious zealots/hardliners others who want revolution.

There’s certainly a possibility. The Iranian government is a power struggle between moderates and hardliners, both trying to outdo each other.

It wouldn’t be the first time the hardliners have tried to damage moderate Iranian policies to continue the “war” against the US. They had been trying to scupper the Nuclear deal since it was put in place, and Trump ripping it up basically gave them victory on a plate with that.

Equally the comment above about Iran wanting rid of Soleimani could be a reasonable guess. The moderates giving the nod to the US to get rid of one of the most powerful hardliners with the promise they would keep the retaliation proportionate.

And calling Iran a dictatorship isn't exactly accurate. The Ayatollah has a significant amount of influence and the “final say” but day to day running and a lot of policy is set and enacted by the democratically elected parliament. I.e the elected president and parliament members have a lot of power. Unfortunately the revolutionary guard and other institutions also have a lot of power, which is where a lot of the seemingly contradictory actions from Iran come from. One side is trying to bring peace, while the other side is arming militia.

There is that aspect as well - especially the Revolutionary Guard but I was referring more to smaller factions along the lines of the restart movement, etc. I'm not sure with some of them whether they have any presence in Iran versus their existence on social media, etc. though but definitely some advocate trying to bring revolution to Iran through any means possible even stuff like shooting down a civilian airliner if it could be pinned on the regime and others buy wholly into the whole religious war stuff and that God will give them victory over the US.

 

[Amp34]

It makes sense now why Iran's retaliation was so muted.

I know the plane crash came after the attack on the US air bases in Iraq, but Iran must have realised that one of their soldiers shot that plane down by accident and then called off further strikes anywhere else.

Considering they purposely missed with their first two rounds (and yes it almost certainly was on purpose) I’m not sure why they had would have had plans for further rounds. They had their “retaliation”, showed what they could do (without killing anyone) and any additional salvos would have been a waste of rockets.

 

[Amp34]

Maybe they are scared of shooting at the wests military directly so have decided to take a pop at a soft target like an airliner.
After all a jumbo jet normally wont shoot back.

Why? The majority of them were Iranian citizens. A lot of dual nationals on that plane. The three Brits were also Iranian as far as I know, as were a lot of the Canadians.