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What's going to happen to the car market?

Discussion in 'Motors' started by bazaarboy, Mar 25, 2020.

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  1. neocon

    Soldato

    Joined: Aug 24, 2006

    Posts: 5,408

    I sold my car for £16,500 in March about a week before the lockdown. That's around the suggested value.

    I've just found it listed online for £18,999 at carshop. I didn't sell it to them either, so it's been through a few hands.

    £2500 difference, wonder who's going to buy that? Makes me wonder about car supermarkets.
     
  2. grudas

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 12, 2008

    Posts: 20,703

    Location: West sussex

    I am not really worried about my s2000, I think it'll either hold it's value or depreciate a little.

    crown on the other hand is so niche that it is difficult to value on a good day but I don't think I'll struggle to sell it at 5kish either.

    so over-all with my fleet I am not worried.

    both cars currently are keepers with no plans to sell.
     
  3. Gibbo

    Commissario

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 32,353

    Location: OcUK HQ


    No plans to sell S2000 so if number keep diminishing and they don’t release a new NA version values will hold firm I feel.

    458 in short term will lose quite a bit but will do quite a bit better than other cars I was eying up. In a few years time will no doubt firm up again for good examples so not worried as no plans on selling.

    Abarth I got so cheap anyway that no matter when I sell it I’ll lose nothing and maybe make some money, just gonna wait for market to recover and come out of lock down before advertising.
     
  4. Joe T

    Capodecina

    Joined: Apr 1, 2003

    Posts: 11,482

    Location: Northampton

    Just FYI, car supermarkets typically sell many of their cars on behalf of others. :)
     
  5. grudas

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 12, 2008

    Posts: 20,703

    Location: West sussex

    Finding a good s2000 is getting harder each day, I think the numbers are dropping at a big rate.

    many rusted out, written off and so on.

    probably one of the safest cars to buy.

    I think the 458 will be fine too.. as you said, drop initially but will recover.

    can't see mclarens doing the same.
     
  6. Gibbo

    Commissario

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 32,353

    Location: OcUK HQ


    Yep I looked at a lot of S2000's and most were rusted or had been in un-declared accidents, easy to tell when you know what to look for.
    I found two great examples, the one I own which I got from Honda direct with a years warranty and as part of deal rocker cover, valve clearances, plugs and major service all done. Plus the one at DL when I had 458 serviced which was 22k, I did put a cheeky offer of 20k on that car but in the end they sold it at asking price of £22,000 but it was perfect and had only 9000 miles on clock, was Formula Red.

    I am happy with mine, suspension shall get a full OEM+ refresh and shall be enjoyed, hopefully in theory nothing should ever go wrong as I shall keep the FHSH up and interim change oil myself but having owned mine now for a month and done about 1000 miles in it well it has used not a drop of oil which is good as I know they can drink oil particular earlier examples.

    It is at garage at moment having a full alignment along with Hardrace tie rods, febi inner tie rods, Hardrace upper arms and Hardrace spherical rear toe arms being installed. You may ask why but I got all these parts at 1/3-1/2 price of new and were brand new and as such works out cheaper than new OEM bushes for those parts so just made sense plus the garage doing alignment was happier as means they do need to press out bushes. All other bushes being left OEM apart from compliance bushes going to Mugen ones.

    Mclaren is will get smashed my prediction by end of this year is:
    720S - 100k
    570 Spyder - 80k
    570 Coupe - 65k
    540 Coupe - 65k
    MP4-12C - 50k


    In a few years when good after market specialist appear a cheap 570 will be a very tempting car.
     
    Last edited: May 1, 2020
  7. HangTime

    Man of Honour

    Joined: Oct 25, 2002

    Posts: 27,909

    Location: Hampshire

    I dunno, 3,500 sounds very low to me and in the first paragraph it does state "albeit only about 2% of normal volumes for the post-number plate change month".
    This is the interesting bit for me:
    I guess it will be a waiting game, we've got low demand, low supply, furloughed workers and external influences (lockdown measures) at play basically meaning the market is kind of dormant. I guess it will be when we start to see changes in government policy, economic factors starting to bite etc that we might see a bit more movement. Best to sit tight for a few months IMO.
     
  8. jpaul

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 10,709

    nissan uk extending shutdown yesterday .... further lowering supply , to avoid surplus and price hit (it's like oil industry), or,
    they are specifically concerned about UK disease/worker risk, and, can continue with govt temporary layoff
    https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/industry/coronavirus-car-industry

    Thursday 30 April: Nissan extends Sunderland shutdown, industry counts cost of sales slump, Hummer EV reveal delayed
     
  9. Gibbo

    Commissario

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 32,353

    Location: OcUK HQ


    That is it, brands that don't have surplus stock sat around and are not building stock means there will be no discount because they don't have surplus stock to move, but not all brands will be potentially as smart as Nissan as some brands will have excess inventory and there will be deals to be made, but the brands that have demand but not supply due to lock down then prices will be firm, maybe even go up.
     
  10. mattx2

    Wise Guy

    Joined: Jul 21, 2005

    Posts: 1,208

    Location: New York

    Any one got a lease deal up soon, I saw a recent article suggesting dealers are offering some good deals to take an extension as they cant shift returned stock right now
     
  11. Barks

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 20, 2008

    Posts: 4,013

    Seems to me you have two competing forces.

    We're likely going to be in a recession for a long time with unemployment rising and demand for new vehicles drying up. This should entice car manufacturers to offer pretty good deals.

    On the other hand, I reckon there'll be a fair amount of risk repricing on the finance side of things given the inevitable defaults and reposessions, so low interest rate deals may no longer be a thing - don't be fooled into thinking they will be just because central banks have cut interest rates. Furthermore, a lot of the more aggressive lease deals are also based on highly optimistic assumptions about second hand valuations (the margins are wafer thin) which could take an absolute hammering if the market is flooded with repossessed vehicles. So ultimately I imagine car finance loans will need to be written on far more favourable terms for investors (i.e. higher rates of return through higher interest rates and lower future valuations). There's even talk of payment holiday options becoming a thing on car finance which would give loans optionality and therefore demand a higher rate of return to compensate investors for extension risk.

    I could be wrong and everything goes back to normal in the next few months but frankly you're living in cloud cuckoo land if you think that!
     
  12. Jonnycoupe

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 19, 2002

    Posts: 12,060

    Location: N.Warks

    Retail sales and orders will climb much quicker than production rates ramping back up. Only think likely to be effected is facelift delays to ensure the stock/new build balances can be managed and not corrupted by a fresher model which will forces a discounts.

    many references to supercars really has nothing to do with the ‘car market’
     
  13. BallisticGT3

    Gangster

    Joined: Dec 18, 2008

    Posts: 118

    All this negativity with people trying to drive down prices in the hope that they will pick up a bargain. It's the same across all forums for luxury goods.

    For sure the odd car may crop up at well below current retail but there is usually a reason or story behind that car and it shouldn't become the new baseline asking price.

    It's in everyones interest to stay positive and talk up the prices of our cars.
     
  14. Barks

    Mobster

    Joined: Jul 20, 2008

    Posts: 4,013

    To be honest I hope you are right but there were cracks beginning to show in the economy before COVID. I just can’t see how things will go back to how they were before even with all the support the Government is offering.
     
  15. Regy53

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 11, 2011

    Posts: 3,714

    Location: Northampton

    I am looking for a low end entry supercar 458, hurracan etc. So far they are holding well cars are selling it seems. Not sure when to pull the trigger as bordem is making me itchy

    I think i need to wait a good 3/4 months which is the summer over.
     
  16. ShiWarrior

    Capodecina

    Joined: Oct 20, 2002

    Posts: 19,864

    Location: Oxon

    @Gibbo , maybe he can put you onto Ferrari ? ;)
     
  17. Regy53

    Mobster

    Joined: Jun 11, 2011

    Posts: 3,714

    Location: Northampton

    He wont have his work cut out, its my preferred car at the moment.

    Need to justify it a bit, there is some cost over my usual r8 choice but i am sure it will stack
     
  18. Gibbo

    Commissario

    Joined: Oct 17, 2002

    Posts: 32,353

    Location: OcUK HQ

    There is a few 90-120k examples about but are either a mix of mega high miles, insurance damage or totally woeful in specification.

    All cars will be leaving their 7yr service period soon only 2014/2015 examples still within that and typically still 150-200k.

    Ideally try to find a as late as model as you though changes were not huge and I’ve driven all examples it spec wise unless you have a bad back buckets, forged wheels, carbon driver zone and dash is a must for resale and tends to carry a 15-20k premium over cars without.

    These cars don’t need lift so don’t worry if it don’t have it and regular and JBL stereo are poor but you won’t care as the engine sounds incredible at all speeds with valves unplugged.

    2010/11 - best sounding and most aggressive gearbox. Downsides run richer and known gearbox failures due to harshness. The exhaust burbles and pops a lot more on the earlier cars, it’s not fake!
    2012 - Engine map changed and gearbox made smoother, better for reliability.
    Late 2012/13 onwards independent mag ride so each corner can adjust in real-time and supposedly made car upto 2s faster per lap on their circuit.

    As such it is the later cars that seem in more demand and there is a few cars that just look a bit odd that have been for sale since I got mine so I can’t be only one who thinks look a bit off.

    If black is your colour Nick Wright has an amazing spec car albeit older and higher miles but it’s 125k and seems a great example, but I’d highly recommend staying in Ferrari network for Ferrari privileges and services plus the 2yr warranty.
     
  19. hurfdurf

    Sgarrista

    Joined: Dec 17, 2009

    Posts: 8,727

    I think the notion that if we just all pretend and talk up the values of our cars that they will stay high is hilarious. Ultimately the market will decide what happens, owners insisting their cars are worth X when people are buying at Y makes very little difference.

    I’m fully prepared to take a bath on mine, I was when I bought it because it’s not special like my last 2 cars.

    There are going to be a lot of very over leveraged people during a severe market crash desperate to get out of their vehicles for what ever they can get, with far fewer buyers, and buyers themselves having less money. It’ll be 2008 again in my non expert opinion, and just like all the Gallardo ads asking for 80 when there were the exact same cars going for 60 by desperate sellers, whose sellers insist they have to sell the car but won’t take any less because that’s “what it’s worth” ultimately ended up keeping the cars or compromising no matter how much they screamed into the void that the cars were totally worth 80.

    In 2008 I had a friend sell a particularly special hyper car get a phone call from the head of the brand telling them they were selling it for too little, they asked them to buy it then and they declined. Which says it all imo.
     
  20. jpaul

    Capodecina

    Joined: Mar 1, 2010

    Posts: 10,709

    Look at the percentage of wages folks spend on cars; with higher taxation post cv19 (chancellor has to address company car benefits that already seem disproportionateley favourable versus private purchases, equally with declining uk manufacture, car imports not best for uk economy?) that budget will diminish, so prices drop.
    foods, part of the pie, will increase with brexit/cv19

    It seems unlikely govt would have a scrappage scheme, like, for the financial crisis, as well as, tax hikes.

    Musk seems to have created some scare, their financial call acknowledged they need to reduce manufacturing prices for the chinese market (subsidy changes) post cv19,
    but, equally, if any of his chinese manufacturing capacity is for other markets eu/na, any new trade taxes, or reduced usa state subsidies could impact tesla.