What's going to happen to the car market?

Soldato
Joined
3 Aug 2015
Posts
7,214
I think the notion that if we just all pretend and talk up the values of our cars that they will stay high is hilarious. Ultimately the market will decide what happens, owners insisting their cars are worth X when people are buying at Y makes very little difference.

I think it's a lot to do with 'man maths' and the belief that you can make money on cars, which 99% of the time you cannot. If you have a car that was built in the high 10s or 100s of thousands it will depreciate and it will cost you money. Sure, there are a few niche instances where if you hold onto a car for 30 years you might 'make' some money but it's unlikely. Collectors cars (Bugatti, Ferrari, Porsche, etc.) are the main type of cars where you could actually make some money, although these also have substantial associated costs.

Anyone want to buy some Walker's crisps from me? They're £50 but I'm pretty positive about the price.
 
Soldato
Joined
11 Jun 2011
Posts
3,875
Location
Northampton
There is a few 90-120k examples about but are either a mix of mega high miles, insurance damage or totally woeful in specification.

All cars will be leaving their 7yr service period soon only 2014/2015 examples still within that and typically still 150-200k.

Ideally try to find a as late as model as you though changes were not huge and I’ve driven all examples it spec wise unless you have a bad back buckets, forged wheels, carbon driver zone and dash is a must for resale and tends to carry a 15-20k premium over cars without.

These cars don’t need lift so don’t worry if it don’t have it and regular and JBL stereo are poor but you won’t care as the engine sounds incredible at all speeds with valves unplugged.

2010/11 - best sounding and most aggressive gearbox. Downsides run richer and known gearbox failures due to harshness. The exhaust burbles and pops a lot more on the earlier cars, it’s not fake!
2012 - Engine map changed and gearbox made smoother, better for reliability.
Late 2012/13 onwards independent mag ride so each corner can adjust in real-time and supposedly made car upto 2s faster per lap on their circuit.

As such it is the later cars that seem in more demand and there is a few cars that just look a bit odd that have been for sale since I got mine so I can’t be only one who thinks look a bit off.

If black is your colour Nick Wright has an amazing spec car albeit older and higher miles but it’s 125k and seems a great example, but I’d highly recommend staying in Ferrari network for Ferrari privileges and services plus the 2yr warranty.


Cheers Gibbo,

I was kind of going for the 125-150k budget. I was just hoping although unsure it would happen that the 150k cars become 130k and the 130k cars become 110...

I have in my head 2012 or newer but to be honest as a toy i dont see a 2010 being a issue as the newer ones come at a big premium.

As my first scud i was also thinking red with cream, but i am a big fan of grey cars so color is up in the air too.
 
OcUK Staff
Joined
17 Oct 2002
Posts
38,252
Location
OcUK HQ
Cheers Gibbo,

I was kind of going for the 125-150k budget. I was just hoping although unsure it would happen that the 150k cars become 130k and the 130k cars become 110...

I have in my head 2012 or newer but to be honest as a toy i dont see a 2010 being a issue as the newer ones come at a big premium.

As my first scud i was also thinking red with cream, but i am a big fan of grey cars so color is up in the air too.


Well at the moment it seems rarer more unusual colours are selling so grey could be a safer bet as the grey, silvers and yellow seem to sell whereas right now there is a huge amount of black and red cars for sale.

If buying none Ferrari dealership better to spend less and have 20k aside for any possible repairs and maintenance. Beauty of the 458 is they all drive the same so even a poverty specification car for say 100k if in good condition will drive same or very close to a 150k fully optioned car.

But of course as you probably know some options are a must like LED steering wheel and you can’t retrofit them as the cost is like 10k for the wheel unless you can get one from a crashed car but you’d still be looking at a few grand. When I priced up carbon dash and it was £10,000, carbon paddles £1100 and carbon lower centre console £1400 at this point I just searched for a car that had said options and paid extra.

A grey would be safe bet for sure yes red / cream is classic but so many spec like this and now a few for sale and it’s a buyers market so you could maybe get a better deal on a red car with so many uses being for sale. I’ve noticed grey, silver, triple yellow and triple red when they come on market with a good spec tend to disappear from market within a month so are selling. But the reds, blacks or some of the rarer colours but with funky options are sticking around. Avoid exterior carbon on a base 458 it seems to put a lot off, not sure why maybe because wannabe Speciale.

Also ring around dealerships as some will have access to cars not advertised.

The other car to consider if you don’t mind a bit less performance and want a safer place for your money is a 430 Scuderia or 430 Manual, both of which exploded in price past couple of years but if they take a dive in coming months I am sure they’d be a safer bet as will for sure bounce back in years to come as they are very collectable.

Advantage of 458 is it’s dual personality and reliability. Plonk it in wet mode and automatic and it’s quite a civilised car to drive and very comfy particular with none bucket seats, so makes an awesome tourer too as luggage space is not too bad, we did NC500 in ours.

Race mode or traction off and it feels like your driving a proper lightweight race car on the road and it’s a truly raw experience that brings smiles and enjoyment at both low and high speeds as unlike an R8, GTR or Huracan the 458 stomps them into the ground for fun factor and driver involvement at legal speeds and is just as capable at the really fast stuff too but you just don’t need to go there and it’s why I think in years to come 458 values will sit above 488’s as the 488 though a better car and much faster to me also felt kind of boring, too much grip and the engine but sorry it’s nowhere near as special irrelevant of how fast and powerful it is, only real advantage of 488 that I noticed is the brakes are much better the ceramics on the 458 can be scary at times they really need heat and even then pedal feel could be better.

For me 458 / Speciale and 812 Superfast are my favourite Ferrari’s and am glad and lucky enough to own one. :)
 
Last edited:
Soldato
Joined
11 Jun 2011
Posts
3,875
Location
Northampton
Well at the moment it seems rarer more unusual colours are selling so grey could be a safer bet as the grey, silvers and yellow seem to sell whereas right now there is a huge amount of black and red cars for sale.

If buying none Ferrari dealership better to spend less and have 20k aside for any possible repairs and maintenance. Beauty of the 458 is they all drive the same so even a poverty specification car for say 100k if in good condition will drive same or very close to a 150k fully optioned car.

But of course as you probably know some options are a must like LED steering wheel and you can’t retrofit them as the cost is like 10k for the wheel unless you can get one from a crashed car but you’d still be looking at a few grand. When I priced up carbon dash and it was £10,000, carbon paddles £1100 and carbon lower centre console £1400 at this point I just searched for a car that had said options and paid extra.

A grey would be safe bet for sure yes red / cream is classic but so many spec like this and now a few for sale and it’s a buyers market so you could maybe get a better deal on a red car with so many uses being for sale. I’ve noticed grey, silver, triple yellow and triple red when they come on market with a good spec tend to disappear from market within a month so are selling. But the reds, blacks or some of the rarer colours but with funky options are sticking around. Avoid exterior carbon on a base 458 it seems to put a lot off, not sure why maybe because wannabe Speciale.

Also ring around dealerships as some will have access to cars not advertised.

The other car to consider if you don’t mind a bit less performance and want a safer place for your money is a 430 Scuderia or 430 Manual, both of which exploded in price past couple of years but if they take a dive in coming months I am sure they’d be a safer bet as will for sure bounce back in years to come as they are very collectable.

Advantage of 458 is it’s dual personality and reliability. Plonk it in wet mode and automatic and it’s quite a civilised car to drive and very comfy particular with none bucket seats, so makes an awesome tourer too as luggage space is not too bad, we did NC500 in ours.

Race mode or traction off and it feels like your driving a proper lightweight race car on the road and it’s a truly raw experience that brings smiles and enjoyment at both low and high speeds as unlike an R8, GTR or Huracan the 458 stomps them into the ground for fun factor and driver involvement at legal speeds and is just as capable at the really fast stuff too but you just don’t need to go there and it’s why I think in years to come 458 values will sit above 488’s as the 488 though a better car and much faster to me also felt kind of boring, too much grip and the engine but sorry it’s nowhere near as special irrelevant of how fast and powerful it is, only real advantage of 488 that I noticed is the brakes are much better the ceramics on the 458 can be scary at times they really need heat and even then pedal feel could be better.

For me 458 / Speciale and 812 Superfast are my favourite Ferrari’s and am glad and lucky enough to own one. :)

Spot on advice many thanks, Indeed i wanted to get the spec correct with the wheel and interior etc. There are so many red and creams for sale as you say the only way away from that is for a spider which is also a consideration I just need to understand what to look for one the spec. I would love to keep in the dealer network as i think the warranty / good will and experience should be the best about.

Do you have the sports seats? I do suffer with a bad back and when i bought my first R8 plus pre gen 2 it was fixed springs and buckets, within 10 mins of owning i knew it was not right for me. The next gen with mag ride made a huge difference so as much as sports seats may be great for resale I would opt for the comfy option
 
OcUK Staff
Joined
17 Oct 2002
Posts
38,252
Location
OcUK HQ
Spot on advice many thanks, Indeed i wanted to get the spec correct with the wheel and interior etc. There are so many red and creams for sale as you say the only way away from that is for a spider which is also a consideration I just need to understand what to look for one the spec. I would love to keep in the dealer network as i think the warranty / good will and experience should be the best about.

Do you have the sports seats? I do suffer with a bad back and when i bought my first R8 plus pre gen 2 it was fixed springs and buckets, within 10 mins of owning i knew it was not right for me. The next gen with mag ride made a huge difference so as much as sports seats may be great for resale I would opt for the comfy option


The 458 comes with comfort or buckets, the comforts look good in Daytona style and can be heated too and are comfy but also sit you higher in car not a good thing and you can’t feel the car as well.

I find the buckets (large) which nearly all buckets are large size on 458’s are really comfy for first couple hours but I found on NC500 after 3 hours I needed a walk around as my lower back hurt. Even some comfort seats cause me this issue too it’s just down to seat design against my back I think.

A few examples are cars for sale:

Under / around 100k:
https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/ferrari/458/ferrari-458-italia-2dr-auto/9625753

It’s got buckets and LED wheel but high miles at 60k and the cream interior looks very aged but compared to the other sub 100k cars it is best of a bad lot, there is a white car with less miles but it has zero options and a full red interior even dash and doors are red and looks terrible but it’s like 95k and less miles just drive so fast so no one sees you lol.

This car at 110k seems a real good buy as it’s got forged wheels, comfort seats but well styled and it’s got LED wheel and some nice touches like JBL stereo so seems good value:
https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/ferrari/458/ferrari-458-4-5-italia-auto-seq-2dr/10330169#&gid=1&pid=18



Around 125k:

https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/ferrari/458/ferrari-458-coupe-italia-2dr-auto/10279126

https://www.pistonheads.com/classifieds/used-cars/ferrari/458/ferrari-458-italia--high-spec/10383488#&gid=1&pid=2

Top one is grey and at Ferrari but is a very basic spec, even has cast wheels but at least has LED wheel.

The bottom one is an insane specification and has all the carbon which on any colour other than black would look horrendous but on black it works and It’s very high spec and from a seller with strong reputation.

140k region:

https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classi...onesearchad=New&advertClassification=standard


https://www.pistonheads.com/classif...ari-458-italia-2dr-auto/10465600#&gid=1&pid=1


Top yellow one is at ferrari not a bad spec and has comfort seats.

bottom red one is stunning and very well optioned.

Plenty of others for sale too but those seem some of nicer examples.

The Spyder version is a good car but it’s not as raw or focused as coupe as it’s not as rigid and weighs about 50-60kg more and you cannot see the engine on display which was a major off out for me, only bonus is you can wind back window down and put roof down for even more glorious noise.
 
Soldato
Joined
11 Jun 2011
Posts
3,875
Location
Northampton
thanks @Gibbo

The car at GC motors is interesting as quite simply its cheap but I just not a big fan of black and more so because my workplace is ok but sometimes a little dusty it would drive me insane for the rare time i took it in

The cars with cast wheels etc are crossed off, its certainly not something i want

this one is quite nice but i cannot make out the roof and rear bumper being black also trying to see what its missing spec wise
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202005019136179?radius=1501&make=FERRARI&model=458&onesearchad=Used&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=New&year-to=2020&sort=relevance&postcode=nn49qj&advertising-location=at_cars&page=1

and then this one

https://preowned.ferrari.com/en/gb/...errari_458_italia-graypaul_birmingham-LG12KWA

I love a good convertible but at the cost of the engine under glass is not something i would do its why all my r8's have been coupes, i find myself trying to look past the 140k +cars as its just sounding dearer and dearer certainly feel more comfortable in the 110-130k price range.
 
OcUK Staff
Joined
17 Oct 2002
Posts
38,252
Location
OcUK HQ
thanks @Gibbo

The car at GC motors is interesting as quite simply its cheap but I just not a big fan of black and more so because my workplace is ok but sometimes a little dusty it would drive me insane for the rare time i took it in

The cars with cast wheels etc are crossed off, its certainly not something i want

this one is quite nice but i cannot make out the roof and rear bumper being black also trying to see what its missing spec wise
https://www.autotrader.co.uk/classified/advert/202005019136179?radius=1501&make=FERRARI&model=458&onesearchad=Used&onesearchad=Nearly New&onesearchad=New&year-to=2020&sort=relevance&postcode=nn49qj&advertising-location=at_cars&page=1

and then this one

https://preowned.ferrari.com/en/gb/...errari_458_italia-graypaul_birmingham-LG12KWA

I love a good convertible but at the cost of the engine under glass is not something i would do its why all my r8's have been coupes, i find myself trying to look past the 140k +cars as its just sounding dearer and dearer certainly feel more comfortable in the 110-130k price range.


The first car is nicer less miles and newer, downside is not Ferrari network and for whatever reason it seems like someone has wrapped the roof, rear bumper and rear panel of engine bay. No doubt because it was a very costly option from factory to have two tone paint scheme. I’d not dismiss this car but if any deal was done insist wrap is removed especially from bumper as it looks a bit naff. The second car is nice too but seems overpriced.

my advice to you is drive a few because I drove all years and one of them felt odd and lacking performance and handled odd which was from a specialist whereas the two Ferrari dealership cars drove awesome in comparison.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
25 Oct 2002
Posts
31,756
Location
Hampshire
Seems to me you have two competing forces.

We're likely going to be in a recession for a long time with unemployment rising and demand for new vehicles drying up. This should entice car manufacturers to offer pretty good deals.

On the other hand, I reckon there'll be a fair amount of risk repricing on the finance side of things given the inevitable defaults and reposessions, so low interest rate deals may no longer be a thing - don't be fooled into thinking they will be just because central banks have cut interest rates. Furthermore, a lot of the more aggressive lease deals are also based on highly optimistic assumptions about second hand valuations (the margins are wafer thin) which could take an absolute hammering if the market is flooded with repossessed vehicles. So ultimately I imagine car finance loans will need to be written on far more favourable terms for investors (i.e. higher rates of return through higher interest rates and lower future valuations). There's even talk of payment holiday options becoming a thing on car finance which would give loans optionality and therefore demand a higher rate of return to compensate investors for extension risk.

I could be wrong and everything goes back to normal in the next few months but frankly you're living in cloud cuckoo land if you think that!

The thing is though, arguably both those forces are pushing in the same direction, not competing. You've got naturally falling demand, and then you've got demand further suppressed by making credit less affordable. Increased cost of credit doesn't in itself make vehicles more expensive, aside from perhaps disincentive for dealers to offer non-finance related discounts. You basically have a situation where car X used to be affordable to Joe Bloggs, but now you've hiked the finance costs, it no longer is. So car X has to drop in price to balance that, or Jane Bloggs just buys it for cash in which case the increased cost of finance hasn't impacted the price anyway.
Use the housing market as an analogy, when house prices are falling they don't increase the cost of borrowing to boost the overall cost to the buyer, as that's not what is measured.

I won't be financing any car purchase unless it is zero %, or there is a deposit contribution and then withdraw early, meaning the cost of finance is very low anyway.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
10,632
Location
Notts
Problem is, a lot of 0% deals have historically been at list price, or higher prices than you'd normally be able to buy for. If you could get used cars on 0% finance, or hefty list price discounts, then we'd be talking.
 
Soldato
Joined
1 Mar 2010
Posts
22,012
[agree zero% is a misnomer ]

manufacturing costs will increase too ... other than aerospace, do cars, have the most extensive/deep supply lines, and all of those middlemen will incur additional cost due to covid,
so, disproportionately, versus other products, list prices will increase, to preserve magin acceptable to share holders .. who will be first.
 
Man of Honour
Joined
25 Oct 2002
Posts
31,756
Location
Hampshire
^^Agreed I wasn't suggesting I would be actively seeking out 0% deals, just that I would only use finance where there is an advantage from doing so, and hence increasing cost of finance wouldn't really translate to increased cost of purchasing a car, for me at least. Only car we've ever bought on finance was just to bag a deposit contribution and then paid it all off in under a month, 0% with no discount would have been a worse deal.

In terms of the manufacturing cost, definitely can see problems there. Less efficient processes, supply chain issues - it might not translate as rising list prices but it could mean less heavy discounting as their margins dwindle. You look at say Mercedes and often there are 20%+ discounts off list for new vehicles, so a fair big of wiggle room.
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
14,190
Location
West Midlands
Only 4321 cars registered in April, the lowest number since 1946!

Expectations are for 500,000 less cars to be registered in 2020 vs 2019, so the car market is going to be totally broken for at least a year.
 
Soldato
Joined
4 Apr 2003
Posts
8,000
Only 4321 cars registered in April, the lowest number since 1946!

Expectations are for 500,000 less cars to be registered in 2020 vs 2019, so the car market is going to be totally broken for at least a year.

Stark figures indeed but hardly a surprise since the dealerships are all pretty much all closed.
 
Soldato
Joined
1 Apr 2003
Posts
11,890
Location
Northamptonshire
The underlying run-rates are even worse than the headline figures. If it wasnt for Tesla still working through their last boat arrivals and Jaguar selling loads of iPaces (think it might be the NHS contract), plus other manufacturers with bulk deals etc, then the numbers would be much worse.

As Scrutinize says, it's hardly surprising given the closures in place.

My job now is to re-forecast on a daily basis the May market. :eek:
 
Soldato
Joined
18 Oct 2002
Posts
10,250
Location
7th Level of Hell...
Vast majority were fleet orders from pre lockdown:

The SMMT has said that 71.5% of those 4321 registrations were fleet orders, meaning it is likely orders came in before the lockdown. It is understood that many deliveries were to support key workers, mostly from wholesalers or direct from manufacturers via online channels.

Just 871 cars were sold to private buyers in the UK during the month.

Source: https://www.autocar.co.uk/car-news/...ations-fall-97-april-due-coronavirus-lockdown
 
Soldato
Joined
27 Dec 2005
Posts
17,292
Location
Bristol
Not sure what April figures are usually like, being the start of the tax year, but wow. Petrol down -98.5%, diesel -97.6%. What a state the car market must be in right now.

Obviously came across the stats because of the TM3 being the best selling, but let's face it, only be default. Still, BEVs outselling diesels is a headline that I'm sure some media outlets will pick up :p.

686.jpg
EXPTftmWAAAPlKB
 
Back
Top Bottom